LGO Energy Share Discussion Threads

[garnhiem80] 24/4/2017 09:34

Take away the initial C- Sand flow rates from field production figures, you will see the baseline production hasn't really declined (legacy well production ie pumped production).

[the guardian] 24/4/2017 08:38

Looks like the traders have killed off any desire to buy shares.

[arrynillson] 24/4/2017 08:19

12bn - interesting you are familiar with the comparison of apples and pears yet you quote a C Sand well decline rate when the new drilling is Mayaro which have different characteristics - up to your usual misleading standards or are you genuinely ignorant as to the differences?

[12bn] 24/4/2017 07:41

arry,NR used 100 wells so that his claim that flow rate depletions wasn't a lie,eos. It is obvious from production numbers,459 bopd,that flow rates that started at a 1000 bopd were quickly down to very low numbers. The new wells will have similar production declines imo and comparing apples (100 wells including very low producers) with pears (new wells) to get under 20% declines should not be taken seriously. Only a fool like arry or ThickoNorth would.

[12bn] 24/4/2017 07:35

The question here should be 'is lgo viable without issuing more and more shares?'. NR has stated that LGO has 100 wells and we know that the last number NR put out for LGO production was 459 bopd,under 4.6 bopd per well. Now that is after new wells,work-overs,recompletions and some of the new wells had very high initial flow rates. I don't think LGO is viable without more and more dilutions,imo.

[arrynillson] 24/4/2017 07:34

12bn - the quote I included in Yesterday's post ' whoever is careless with the truth in small matters cannot be trusted in important matters ' perhaps only resonated with me because I'm a ' nit picker ' - it's possible that other readers here are more accepting of your blatant misleading and cavalier attitude to FInancial Conduct Authority regulations!

12bn I have often referred to the LGO Corporate Presentation March 2017 and the valuable information provided. You, presumably, have not been able to find the time in your busy misinformation posting schedule to read it but had you done page 10 may have saved you further embarrassment regarding declines in Mayaro Wells!

The graph on page 10 projects decline in a new Mayaro well based on a forecast initial rate of 45 bopd and a decline of less than 20% per annum. Apart from suggesting that after 12 months production is likely to be over 30 bopd ( at variance to your predictions, I believe ) it also shows that after 10 years production is likely to be close to 5 bopd. Your post of 22/04/2017 17:54 ended with ' If LGO has 100 wells and only produces 459 bopd, under 4.6 bopd per well, how can it be viable ' . 12bn - see what I did there with the stats - seems like your question is answered LOL!

BTW in quoting your 100 wells figure I am not accepting that there are 100 wells currently producing because that is not what Neil actually said - he merely drew on data from over 100 existing wells.If you look again at page 10 it actually states that many wells were drilled before WW2 and into the 1970's so if they can still produce a few barrels of oil per day after such a long time that is something I applaud rather than criticise but I suppose one's view depends on one's agenda 12bn! The specific example mentioned on page 10 is GY-168, completed 1952 still producing at 11bopd!


I hope you enjoy the LGO presentation as much as I did 12bn!

[12bn] 24/4/2017 07:28

arrynillson - 15 Mar 2017 - 11:18:52 - 261 of 742 LGO 0.105p bid to 0.05p bid TheNorth wears a dress! - LGO
12bn - fake news on the netbacks - you claimed we were getting $20 per barrel when NR says it's $30 now with the revised concession rate - had been talked about on this board for months, where you post multiple times a day, suggests you deliberately mislead to suit some ' no position ' agenda - either that or you are unable to pick up on significant information on this stock because you lack the capacity - whichever one I wouldn't want to be your follower, unlike your mate Simon!////// Tut tut,careless with the truth!

[12bn] 24/4/2017 07:23

arrynillson23 Apr '17 - 11:06 - 740 of 740 0 0
12bn - reading your post brought to mind a famous quote ' whoever is careless with the truth in small matters cannot be trusted in important matters './/////// If that were true arry why did you claim that the netbacks were $30 a barrel when NR said $28-$30 a barrel? 'Careless with the truth' there weren't you arry,you failed to mention the $28!

[nexus7] 23/4/2017 22:39

From LGO-fan Today 12:37
-------------------------------------

RE: Well, fancy that..

it's about finding the right balance; not sure what your full programme is. Usually it means spending a full day on this BB...

NR has said since the start of Goudron that EOR would deliver the high sustainable levels of BOPD.

Long before you started poisoning this BB.

[nexus7] 23/4/2017 22:36

From barbelfisher Sat 12:39
-------------------------------------

Well, fancy that..

Short-Cycle Projects Key to Surviving the Downturn

[nexus7] 23/4/2017 14:56

Oil Falls Below $50 as Surging U.S. Output Undermines OPEC Cuts


→ American production expands to highest level since August 2015
→ Some producers reached deal on extending OPEC curbs: Al-Falih

...Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said there’s no fundamental evidence to justify this week’s selloff in oil prices. The bank finds the drop in U.S. crude supplies encouraging and expects the declines to accelerate through the second quarter amid OPEC cuts and demand growth, analysts including Damien Courvalin and Jeffrey Currie said in a report. Meanwhile, a mid-week slide was driven by oil trading through its 50-day and 100-day moving averages, Goldman said....

[arrynillson] 23/4/2017 11:06

12bn - reading your post brought to mind a famous quote ' whoever is careless with the truth in small matters cannot be trusted in important matters '.

LGO and its financial arrangements are not always easy for some to comprehend so when a poster makes a mistake I merely draw it to their attention, usually with an explanation and sources for my comment. The normal reaction I have found is that people refer to my source and accept my comment - the reaction from you is completely different - for example on the netbacks issue you told readers that as you weren't invested you couldn't be bothered to listen to Neil's webcast - you were made to continually look foolish and eventually dragged yourself kicking and screaming to listen to it - yet you were prepared to mislead readers here with you ignorance since 2016!!!!

I'll post more later - have a good weekend all!!!

[arrynillson] 22/4/2017 09:58

12bn - the benefit of using the large data base is that the rate of decline established as an average is clearly more meaningful than using a smaller sample.

I believe most people understand that some wells will do better than average and some worse - you only have to consider NR's projection of 45 bopd for the new drilling and compare it to the way above average results from the two latest wells to comprehend that average is an indicating tool for decision making not a guarantee of future results.

If you think NR is lying about his Mayaro research let's see your proof otherwise your opinion about likely outcomes is as valuable as your opinion on netbacks, G&A, paying Lind in shares, Lind APR, reason for BOLT purchase - need I say more 12bn!!!!

[12bn] 22/4/2017 08:55

The point is the production is falling from existing wells Garnheim,NR says at under 20% but as you rightly commented imo,some of the wells production are likely to be falling at a very low rate,maybe 1% or 2%,so other wells are falling much faster. Even arry added that some wells may not be producing at all,which means the newer wells decline in production is greater! I am glad that we all now agree on that.

[thenorth] 21/4/2017 21:02

Work in progress indeed!!!

[garnhiem80] 21/4/2017 15:09

A well declining in production is different to depletion, notice the forward looking evaluation in production also! Something that wasn't achievable in the gas driven C-Sand wells!

[arrynillson] 21/4/2017 14:51

12bn - ' A lot of ' coulds ' in that post arry ' - 12bn I was quoting from Neil's rns and I'm confident he has evidence to support his assertion but he hasn't shared it with me nor have I asked him for it therefore when I comment on it I have to include the word could where appropriate as I do not wish to mislead on here.

What amazes me about you 12bn is that when I ask you for evidence that NR is not telling the truth normal people would say arry how can I do that I don't have access to the information on which NR based his assertion- instead you misunderstand what he actually said and then advance logic so ridiculous I am struggling to know where to start in attempting to address it!

As I suggested earlier you are still a work in progress but I'm pleased that ventilating these issues obliges you to update your knowledge of LGO to avoid appearing more foolish than you already have done so that when market sentiment improves for LGO it won't completely take you by surprise!

[12bn] 21/4/2017 13:06

This is what caused the discussion,arry quoting NRs decline rates........arrynillson20 Apr '17 - 08:27 - 699 of 732 0 0
12bn I know you like to rely on that discredited Share Prophets tosh and your understanding of percentages helps you swallow it but you have previously demonstrated that you are capable of being inculcated with genuine information, for example listening to NR webcast, although no one could say you were exactly quick on the uptake there could they 12bn!!

I would suggest you view the March Corporate Presentation on the LGO website - it contains a graph of projected Mayaro decline along with lots of other information - including news on G&A cost reductions, which clearly impact on future accounts of LGO, imagine being able to speculate about them rather than cut n paste historic figures!

Where possible I like to quote rns material and Neil, with great percipience, slipped this into the 22/03/2017 rns - ' with historically low decline rates shown by over 100 existing field wells to be consistently less than 20% per annum '. As a non shareholder I can understand why the initial flow rates excite you but I'd prefer initial flow rates to be as recently announced rather than say 10 bopd as I've not heard of too many wells that increase production with age, unless they benefit from say water flood!

I'm confident NR will be able to update us on production for the Mayaro new wells as shareholders will need to see the figures to assess whether the campaign is worthy of continued support but you will have to wait for that along with real shareholders.
12bn20 Apr '17 - 10:05 - 700 of 732 0 0 Edit
I'm confident NR will be able to update us on production for the Mayaro new wells as shareholders will need to see the figures to assess whether the campaign is worthy of continued support but you will have to wait for that along with real shareholders.///////ROFLOL at that comment,NR has a track record of avoiding giving out that info,he tends to say that it is too complicated to give individual well results but you wouldn't know that! As for a mere 20% decline,I simply do not believe it,LGO new wells have always declined more like 90% in the first year. The trouble is that it won't be obvious until late September when the results will show that production is far less than NR has led everyone to believe,imo. Been there,bought the T-shirt but you arry are just a newbie mug punter. Sp falling again,I wonder why? NR couldn't possibly be paying Lind with shares,like he has paid many creditors before!

[12bn] 21/4/2017 13:02

Garnhiem8021 Apr '17 - 08:33 - 722 of 731 1 0
Las presentation was 88 active wells, not all f them are in production at any one time.

The Goudron sands has a depletion rate of 1% from historic production figures to oil in place figures.. Over all I think it's in the region of 2-3% overall (including C-Sands).
12bn21 Apr '17 - 09:44 - 723 of 731 0 0 Edit
Garnheim,can you produce evidence for your assertions in post 722? Please read this RNS from a few days ago first./////LGO Energy PLC

18 April 2017

For Immediate Release, 7am

18 April 2017

LGO ENERGY PLC

("LGO" or the "Company")

Well GY-683 on initial production at 80 bopd - significantly ahead of the pre-drill expectation

LGO is pleased to announce that its second development well, GY-683, in the new drilling campaign on the Company's Goudron Field, which was drilled to a total depth of 1,250 feet measured depth and perforated over a 269-foot interval of net oil pay within the Mayaro Sandstone reservoir, is now on production.

The well was completed on 9 April 2017 and is free flowing (i.e. without pumping) with an initial rate of 80 barrels of oil per day ("bopd") of dry oil with API gravity of approximately 44 degrees and initial well-head flowing pressure of 40 psi through a 7/64-inch choke. It is anticipated that once the natural flow period ends, the well will be placed on pump at an initial stabilised rate estimated to be approximately 65 bopd.

Fergus Jenkins, LGO's Chief Operating Officer, commented:

"As with the first well GY-682, this second well has come in ahead of the average expected for initial production rate, giving confidence that the new drilling campaign is on track to substantially increase production from Goudron over the year. The initial free flowing dry oil nature of the well suggests a high quality reservoir and higher than anticipated inflow rates which is a very positive outcome."

GY-683 is the second of a programme of up to 10 infill wells planned for the Mayaro Sandstone in 2017 and early 2018. Each well is forecast to have average initial pumped production rates of 45 bopd of light sweet crude, with the field historically demonstrating low decline rates consistently less than 20% per annum, as evidenced in over 100 existing wells at Mayaro Sandstone level.

[12bn] 21/4/2017 13:00

What about them Garnhiem? I am with you on a lot of the wells having very low decline rates,it is the newer wells with the massive decline rates imo. I asked you for evidence in your earlier post,did you ever find any?

[cpap man] 21/4/2017 12:52

TXP [Touchstone Ex]



Rumours that this might be coming to AIM

If so is it still worth a close look?

Or just passing on?

[garnhiem80] 21/4/2017 12:35

What about.. declines of below 20% per annum on yearly field production figures.

[12bn] 21/4/2017 12:31

So we can conclude that the 'under 20%' decline rates are weasel words to con simpletons like arry and TheNorth into thinking that the new wells in the Goudron field are different from the previous new wells and it seems to have worked for the thicko twins.