Leeds Share Discussion Threads

[arthur_lame_stocks] 20/12/2004 18:42

Langland/Langholm - sorry i've got Leeds on the brain, but you know what I mean!!!

[arthur_lame_stocks] 20/12/2004 08:17

Langholm

Are you into any other stocks like this? We seem to like the same sort of thing. I think you suggested Lonrho and I would like to buy some but am waiting to see if they go nearer to 12p first.

And do you post on the Fool at all?

[arthur_lame_stocks] 20/12/2004 08:15

langland

I would like to see some action, I am also thinking of buying another chunk, maybe before the results but i'll see what the price does first, it may drift a bit further.

I think there is probably over 30p a share in here given time to realise it. I think Hemmers could be making 700k net profit going forward and has to be worth 5-7m on its own.

Plus up to 3m from Strines and Langholm (o.k probably won't work out to anything like that, perhaps 1.5m)

Plus whatever Leasing is worth, it has net assets of about 3.5m (I think) and most of this presumably just represents a cashflow, ie the difference between what they owe on the Leasing debt and what they are owed from their customers so assuming their bad debt provisioning is o.k (at last) than it has to be worth something just on this basis, if not as a going concern.

[arthur_lame_stocks] 19/12/2004 15:40

langland

So the planning permission was granted in Dec and presumably has now gone to Westminster fo rubber stamping (I can't see why there should be a problem with a small development on brownfield land that all parties are happy enough with).

January sounds about right for final approval presumably at which point whatever payment is owed to Leeds becomes due.

So they may have a large cash profit to pay out with the results, what else are they going to do with it since they've made it clear that their aim is to break up the group and return the cash to shareholders.

So what do you reckon, am I way off the mark or could we be in for 2-5p dividend in the new year?

Why else delay the results?

[langland] 18/12/2004 10:06

Results in Jan....so maybe waiting for some issues to be settled not least the property.

[arthur_lame_stocks] 18/12/2004 09:16

langland

Do you mean the results are out January or we are to be told about the property in January?

[langland] 17/12/2004 13:56

I just phoned, Arthur, to be told sometime in January.

[arthur_lame_stocks] 17/12/2004 13:34

I thought the results might be out today.

Perhaps they're going to sneak them out Christmas Eve.

Best case scenario I suppose is that they're waiting on a final result from the Strines property and a cash payment which they can pay out as a dividend.

I could always email Malcolm Wilson and ask I suppose but then i'd have nothing to speculate on.

[cg1953] 04/12/2004 10:42

arthur.

my understanding is that pg and claesson bought the bulk of there holdings at btw .40 and .60
certainly only pg bought a much smaller % at -13/14
the bulk of his holding was acquired at the much higher prices.

with claesson now on the board,and with news of his varied and multiple bizness interests including biotech and other high growth enterprises; maybe he could use ldsg as his listed vehicle and so propel the share price much higher.
heres to dreaming !!!!

[arthur_lame_stocks] 03/12/2004 09:10

cg1953

I think Gyllenhammar's done pretty well out of Leeds. He bought a lot of his shares from Equitable Life for about 14p before the 13p capital repayment.

Not sure about Claesson though.

Perhaps the reason the breakup wasn't completed earlier this year is because he has to get good prices for the 2 companies just to get his money back.

[cg1953] 03/12/2004 08:48

langland/arthur

hope your supportive comments transalate into a much better valuation.
guess we all have to wait till the middle of the month and the finals.
a possibility that the swedes who have lost more than most on this one
will move to take it private or break it up from this lowly valuation?

hardly worth the time and expense of a listing since its breaking itself up anyway !!!

[langland] 02/12/2004 14:39

The Leasing debt is without recourse and this is stated in the accounts signed off by accountants. So, if we ignore Leasing completely, I think we could actually be in cash surplus now (on trading performance), maybe 500k, and with potential £1.45mn to come the enterprise value would drop to £3mn and we have a business making probably close to £1mn. I think I will wait for the results but I am close to buying more. Generally agree your view.
L

[arthur_lame_stocks] 02/12/2004 13:39

langland

I'm beginning to think it might be worth picking up some more. I'll wait for the results first though.

It seems to me that assuming they've told us the truth about Leeds Leasing's debt being without recourse to the group then even if it went bust, which I don't think it will at this stage, between the parent and Hemmers we have a company with almost no debt reliably churning out an operating profit of over 1mn per year plus up to 3mn still to come from the disposals all for 5mn.

It has to be cheap on that basis, surely.

And then you have the likelihood IMO that Leeds Leasing is worth a lot less than nothing and it gets even cheaper.

The biggest danger I can think of is if, somehow, Leeds Leasings debts can be claimed from the rest of the group and it goes under, we probably won't get much back, but then that assumes the company is lying to us explicitly.

Arthur

[langland] 02/12/2004 11:34

I would not have thought Leeds would comment on the planning application until the results announcement. And, as you say, no dosh will be forthcoming until the application has been through all the hoops. From memory I think additional payment depends on the number of acres developed so I would have thought there is a good chance of getting the full £1.45mn since the current application seems to be more extensive despite fewer houses. In any event, I would have thought £1mn should be in the bag.

Echo your thoughts on Leeds Leasing.

You are quite right about the terms of trade for Hemmers and I remember Malcolm Wilson making this point sometime, somewhere.

Also, there was a 600k write off for Leasing a year ago tho' they were hopeful of making some recovery. So there may be some news on this.

IMO price has drifted purely on lack of support from insiders since the company is in close period. If the figures look half decent in the next few weeks, I will buy another lump. These shares are worth at least double from here.

[arthur_lame_stocks] 02/12/2004 11:07

No news from Leeds with regard to the planning application. I hope they are due a payment from this, perhaps it won't be due until the aplication is through all the hurdles which will probably be the beginning of next year.

Results should be out this month, they're not going to be great again, I hope they've stabilised the situation at Leeds Leasing.

I also wonder whether the record highs of the Euro against the Dollar help Hemmers since they are buying much of their fabric from China so presumably their costs are linked to the USD but their revenues are in Euros. I noticed also from their website that they are looking to expand into Eastern Europe.

Perhaps we'll also get some news on the loan notes. As far as I can see from Companies House Langholm haven't yet gone bust, perhaps they can start to pay something back to Leeds next year since the payments were due to start in Feb.

I took two punts this year on companies being broken up, this and ALT. Both have been pretty disasterous. I hope we can look forward to some better news soon.

Arthur

[arthur_lame_stocks] 26/11/2004 16:15

Looks like the major hurlde with regard to the planning permission has been passed. I hope it's just a formality now with all parties in favour of the current proposals.



Arthur

[stewjames] 24/11/2004 13:29

cg, that's the advantage of a toe dip...if you get it wrong you get the opportunity to load up at lower levels where it's even more of a bargain (assuming what you got wrong is the direction of the shareprice rather than developments news wise!) Of course, you don't get the full benefit of being right, but I've always been a cautious trader. Well, about as cautious as you can be said to be when punting on tiny market cap companies with enormous spreads!

[arthur_lame_stocks] 24/11/2004 13:22

cg1953

I wasn't too concerned about Bill Cran not buying the leasing business. I reckon they just couldn't agree a price. I took quite a bit of comfort from the fact that one of the directors was interested. It suggests to me that there is at least some value in the business.

I reckon Hemmers alone is worth at least 14p a share, it seems to be turning out 1m profit before tax, looks to be expanding into Eastern Europe and will presumably benefit from the strengthening of the Euro. I can't see any reason why it can't carry on as it is year in year out.

So I think you have up to 8p a share from the Strines Printworks and Langholm dyeing (alright I bet it doesn't work out to more than 5p in total) plus the value of the leasing business in the price for less than nothing.

But agree about it being a bit too accident prone.

[stewjames] 23/11/2004 13:03

That's fairly ridiculous...my tiny buy has been delayed by several hours and is still not showing!

Decided to go for a toe dip in the end.

[cg1953] 23/11/2004 09:13

stewjames.
mistake prone is an understatement !!
i am a large holder and am so concerned about a number of issues.
not least bill cran resigning to pursue an mbo of the leasing bizness; then pulled out !!!
all the profit warnings.
the interests of the swedes which give me no confidence whatsoever.
pg investments have recently been most lacklustre; mpl/yor
wilson was finace director of yor. now he is md at ldsg.

agreed. on what we have been led to believe; the current valuation looks absurdly cheap.
good luck.
toe dip ? tried that at .22 ,and now sincerly wished i had not !!!

[stewjames] 22/11/2004 18:29

I'm in for a few tomorrow. I'm not rich so don't expect a big buy and a price increase. :-) Looks like a classic case of a mistake-prone company being excessively punished by the market.

[arthur_lame_stocks] 03/11/2004 12:54

Well I certainly won't be buying any more at this stage, but I think it's at least worth waiting until there is a decision on this new planning application before considering selling.

I think that ultimately 30-40p a share is not too outrageous a figure to hope for.

[cg1953] 03/11/2004 10:44

langland.
my sentiments exactly.
i know of no other stock that has so mislead
and dissapointed over so many different issues, over so many years.
certainly none that i have ever owned.

[langland] 02/11/2004 18:55

Best not to tempt fate, Arthur. This has easily been one of the most frustrating shares I have owned. I believe we will ultimately see twice the current price (maybe more). The difficulty is putting a timescale on 'ultimately'.

I would expect the annual results to come out just after the result of the application is known.