Ashley (laura) Share Discussion Threads

[cockneyrebel] 04/4/2011 07:33

Perhaps we can have a sensible chat here now instead of relentless dross.

CR

[mechanical trader] 04/4/2011 00:22

Yes lets face it the spivs have to run away and hide like cowards when confronted with the truth.

So many times have i seen it happen with one certain poster.

Anybody moving across to the other thread is betraying the trust of the thread starter and the stalwarts here.

If you want to hear propoganda and listen to just one side of the debate thats fair enough.

[mreasygoing] 03/4/2011 23:06

How could he be scared with an increased cash position and increased dividend ? Better than holding bombed out AIM shares with no dividend ? :-

[ydderf] 03/4/2011 21:21

the first time you have filtered me crookney, you must really be scared....good luck wiht your holding my friend

[cockneyrebel] 03/4/2011 19:52

A new thread - for us normal people to post on:



CR

[cockneyrebel] 03/4/2011 19:51

A new thread for sensible posters for ALY in 2011

[mechanical trader] 03/4/2011 19:27

Well i thought you were a decent level headed chap Space P ive read your posts over the years here on advfn and thought that chap knows his onions. I still do. I just think on this occasion you are wrong very wrong in fact.

We all get in wrong at times, i certainly have, i admiit it. Im not like the face savers who have visited this thread in the last few days and egged people onto buy a stock which I and others consider to be in danger of slowing sales and profits.

They have an agenda they want to sell into strength before the share price falls further.

[spaceparallax] 03/4/2011 18:21

MT, methinks you're over-egging the situation. No one is pleased to hear of the slow down in that period and it's impossible to know exactly what's contributed to it. Until we receive the next TS from the Company, it'll be not unreasonable to assume that T/O will be down although how that'll affect the bottom line is predictable with any real accuracy.

I think your use of the word horrendous is rather silly and unsupportable and speaks volumes about the worth or otherwise of your posts.

[ydderf] 03/4/2011 17:15

the dividend could be cut if sales continue to deteriorate, its barely earned anyway....very little cover at 1.5p - read the announcement about dividend policy and see what you think.

the main issue here is uncertainty, nobody knows what is ahead, certainly few here predicted such an early reverse of progress, and if that wasn't predictable even by the directors, how can new investors be confidant that further deteerioration isn't on the cards?

Most here post as anxious holders, whistling in the dark, but it the lack of new buyers of the shares which will drive the share price going forward - any people thinking of buying would logically wait on the sidelines until it is clear that the slow down is temporary or not.

I have had a good dekko at the web site and offer - can't see any competitive advantage which isn't potentially erodable by the myriad competition.

crookney knows this too - he is kicking himself he didn't dump in the mid twenties (look at his posts over past months and draw your own conclusions)- generally crookney gets his long term investments (many of them now) from short term investments which went wrong!

[mreasygoing] 03/4/2011 14:24

Please tell me what the yield on the dividend will be at 14p ? :-

18p should be the new base, the yield will support the share price going forward.

Some on here are wishing they had bought a long time ago, me thinks :-

[mechanical trader] 03/4/2011 11:51

Because first and foremost that 4.25% drop is without even the government cuts having taken any effect yet, just think what it will be like when they do and Interest rates are up 100% to 150%.

[spaceparallax] 03/4/2011 11:28

MT,

Please explain why the outlook is "horrendous"?

[mechanical trader] 03/4/2011 11:25

Marks and Spencer post 4th quarter results on wednesday. Rumours been out all last week of a profit warning. If ever a company pointed the way forward its certainly M@S.

Results from M@S always send a ripple through the retail sector and the economy for that matter.

And their outlook statement should be very interesting indeed.

Marks and Spencer Group plc will report its fourth quarter trading statement for 13 weeks ending 2 April 2011 on 6 April 2011

[spaceparallax] 03/4/2011 11:08

MT,

Please explain why the outlook is "horrendous"?

[mechanical trader] 03/4/2011 11:06

Again we have historical report after historical report. Its what happens going forward that counts.

Surely investors can see that here at ALY after great results but a horrendous outlook statement.

And weve had a major warning today, and its from the gorvernments own freinds...

Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has predicted total household debt will hit £2,126 billion by 2015.
The figure - buried in the financial package presented by Chancellor George Osborne last month - is £303 billion higher than the previous forecast.
Average debt per household is now expected to reach £77,309 over the next four years rather than £66,291.

And whats this debt going to be spent on..... helping pay for the mortgage's on the house, keeping up with school fees, paying for the second car loan. Basically trying to keep 'ones head above water'.

Dont think for one minute that people arent cutting back and seeking cheaper alternatives, they are its a fact. AlY have plenty of competition. The pound shops on our high streets are booming at the moment, its the only sector within the retail sector that is. And yes they do sell some ALY merchandise. Wether its legit is a different matter.

And of course the Spivs here will tell you everything is 'Ok in the garden' and produce back dated literature for you to read.

Remember they have a personal financial interest and seek to raise the share price so that they can sell into strength.

Finaly ask yourself this, how much is the pound in your pocket worth today compared with 2 years ago no 3 years ago!!, thats if you have a pound in your pocket.

[ydderf] 03/4/2011 08:18

Can anyone tell me what the commentators have said about this over the weekend?

I guess we are all waiting to be told what to do tomorrow, but in the absence of instructions from the media, i think the pattern will be initial (8.00-9.00am) small buys, leading to 'me too' buys and self congratulatory posts here (this would mean an early post from crookney for example), followed by a further move up or down depending on the macro new flow - if there is another retail warning it will probably be curtains for the 20p+ club though.

Personally, I am happy to wait until the short termists are out, and the steady downward drift resumes - it is difficult to see how it can move forward until the Company sees whether the -4% is a blip or a trend.

This uncertain period would provide an opportunity to await further buying opportunties it the low teens, if you are a gambling bull.

Clearly nobody knows what is going to happen next in UK retail - but at, say 14p they will become an irrestible buy even to the doubters and at 22p+ they must surely be an irrestible sell even to rational fans....

[simon gordon] 02/4/2011 13:20

11/3/11:

Fashion and Luxury Goods

by Dr. Philippa Malmgren

The world economy is now in the midst of the first supply-side shock since the 1973 Opec crisis. Lack of access to lending and working capital has destroyed many of the marginal additional suppliers in all extractive industries – farming, mining and energy – thus pushing these prices, from cotton and rubber, to iron ore and oil, not only upward but sometimes to record highs. 50% of an emerging market worker's income is spent on food and energy. So, these price pressures are squeezing incomes and compelling people to demand change. In North Africa and the Middle East, food inflation has sparked broader civil unrest, while in China, India and Bangladesh it has sparked huge wage demands. The combination of record prices for raw materials and double digit wage hikes means the cost of producing textiles, footwear and luxury goods is going to rise in 2011 for the first time since 1985. It also means that the principal target markets for fashion and luxury goods, such as China, are now potentially going to grow less quickly and be less stable. China may be growing at nearly 10% but inflation is now officially running at 6% and unofficially at 10%; this has enormous implications for production costs, sales assumptions and will increasingly shift the location of demand and production to the West. And, increased inflation fears will also continue to drive up the price of hard assets that matter to luxury goods producers and consumers – including gold, diamonds and prime retail property.

Meanwhile, the West has been burdened by record debt, thus causing luxury goods and fashion retailers to turn their attention to emerging markets and to focus on their market niche's in the West more aggressively. The demand for "Value for Money" has forced high-end luxury into higher pricing points and more exclusive products and forced low-end fashion into lower pricing points and higher quality. This trend is set to persist. In addition, the West is dealing with its debt burden by defaulting on it – The Americans are inflating by throwing free money around (QE2), the Europeans are edging closer to defaults (haircuts on the bonds and abandoning commitments to the taxpayers which include cutting spending on everything from defence to student loans to rubbish collection). As a result, the debt burden will lessen over time. This means demand and sales in the West will continue to pleasantly surprise the fashion and luxury goods industry.

Strong brands will become even more valuable because they can pass on higher prices to their customers without sacrificing market share. Weak brands will come under pressure as higher input costs and changing consumer preferences force them to either innovate or die. Innovation in the arts, as a result, will be a powerful theme for the fashion and luxury goods industry. Just as the financial crisis destroyed Hollywood's lock on film production and opened the door to a new generation of Indie films, so will fashion and luxury goods find that innovation will come from smaller independent creatives who can appeal to the changing demands of consumers faster than most big companies. The last few years have generated extraordinary pain and loss for workers and consumers worldwide. As they attempt to build a new future it is inevitable they will find hope in creativity, thus giving rise to a new generation of taste, style, price and quality requirements that will inevitably need to be met. Those who can meet this challenge will win.