Lamprell Share Discussion Threads

[hippo] 08/9/2016 21:38

In the next 12 months, you will get answers to some of those questions.Points 3 & 4 are nonsense, and if that is what your placing any hope, good luck.If you want to speculate on financials, the fact Lamprell are winding down the workforce on the basis all active projects are coming to an end and no sign of new business, suggests revenues and profits are going to fall through the floor 12 months out. They have clearly slowed completion of some projects into 2017, to cushion the blow, but imho that will come at cost in the current year. Not suggesting they are going bust, but today's share price is not cheap, as people are claiming.Keppel, got the rig business from Cameron for a song imho, due to the larger takeover of Cameron. All the rig designs and all the repair and maintenance work going forward, will prove to be have shrewd in the current market.

[plunger2] 08/9/2016 20:26

Some interesting comments here, however:
1 No one wants to speculate on what the full cycle cash position would be here with all major projects delivered on time (6 remaining rigs). And no other projects started and a totally slimmed down work force - maintenance basis only.
2 Did Keppels do REALLY well in buying Cameron?
3 Anyone want to tell me how good or bad John Kennedy was at running an oil services company?
4 Anyone want to tell me what Steven Lamprell's position is with the ruling elite in UAE as regards "opportunities and obligations"

I'm all ears.

[coxsmn] 08/9/2016 08:34

Depends on how many of the 5bn bids translate into order wins.

[hippo] 08/9/2016 07:47

2017 is set to be an appalling year with a dry order book, not convinced there is not more bad news to come in 2016, they still have to deliver on 3 projects

[meijiman] 08/9/2016 07:33

Poorly managed basket case company this. Going nowhere slowly.

[hippo] 07/9/2016 22:26

Look at the 2015 accounts and outlook and compare them to a competitor such as keppel.Lamprell has an order book of less than US1B of which 90% will full due in 2016. They delivered 3 projects in 2015. What deals have they announced lately.keppel have an order book of US9B going through to 2020, winning near US2b in 2015. They delivered on 33 major projects. They made US480m net profit in a year they describe as most challenging. 2 years earlier they delivered a record 21 new rigs !Lamprell tried to diversify 5 years ago and failed, Keppel have successfully diversified across a number of markets.They have also bought the rights to the latest rigs by Cameron.Don't see why anyone would rush to buy them out, when they are self destructing.

[coxsmn] 07/9/2016 22:20

Lamprell has long established relationships with its existing customers and strong history of business wins. I expect a T/O is likely and profit margins to increase as business activity picks up.

[hippo] 07/9/2016 21:56

I expect they have penalty clauses with their suppliers, but it is all relative. Lamprell may have a penalty clause of say 25% to the customer. They may have similar percentage with key suppliers. But if that supplier is only providing a service or product of say 10% of the total project, it is going to leave a big hole. US35m in this case.Had this not happened, they would have been putting out a profit warning, but they used this to bury US10m. Something is not right here imho.As is clear, work is hard to come by competition are winning the business and they, the Chinese don't seem to foul up every other rig they build. All Lamprell promise is they are in a position to further reduce costs by cutting the workforce.It is not a one-off been doing this for last 5+ years. It's never cheap whilst there are no signs of recovery.

[coxsmn] 07/9/2016 21:36

Salpara, good post, i worked in Telecoms industry and it was a similar situation post the 2000 boom. We had to accept a few contracts at very low margins to support the workforce during a downturn. Need to still maintain sufficient resource for more lucrative contracts. What happened next was a lot of market consolidation and we were taken over.

In terms of late delivery penalties, Lamprell needs to consider terms carefully during the contract negotiations, maybe imposing penalties on their own suppliers, find ways to mitigate risk.

[salpara111] 07/9/2016 09:08

All the oil supply companies are caught between a rock and a hard place.
Do you bid for work on dangerously thin margins in order to keep your facilities working or refuse to take unprofitable work which means big costs associated with partial closure of facilities.
The order book is melting away which is not their fault but the end result is the same for everyone.
The screw up on the recent rig delivery, regardless of who was at fault, is a real confidence knock and leaves everyone wondering if they can deliver their current pipeline without further incident.
They may well have to resort to litigation to recover costs from Cameron which will be expensive and time consuming.
Having said all of that, there comes a time when the share price hits bottom and I don't think there is much further downside to be seen but equally the question of where upside might come from is equally a mystery.

[plunger2] 07/9/2016 08:20

22/9/16 for results per:


I wonder are they putting all the bad news into this year's financials, while putting the hoped for claims from the OEM into 2017. It could need it.
In any event the company should be worth far more if sold or deadened rather than kept alive in these poor PoO markets.

JMHO

[salpara111] 06/9/2016 14:24

Why have they not released the interim results?
Last year they were on the 27/8.
Their website says there are "no upcoming events" under the tab for financial calendar.

[kmann] 06/9/2016 11:16

Your focusing on a ONE off issue, rather than looking at the big picture, and other deals on the table.

[hippo] 05/9/2016 19:16

Problem is, in the last 5 years they seem to have messed up more than they have delivered.Changed the ceo, then a couple of years on he fouled up too, not before stepping aside into his lucrative consultancy role, and so it starts again.My view is, they are not winning enough business and unlikely to deliver all outstanding projects on time without delays or problems.

[srpactive] 05/9/2016 10:15

Agree, mbo time.

[plunger2] 05/9/2016 09:02

If someone can explain to me why HTG is worth £700m (off of today's results)and we are worth only £209m I would be interested.

Surely if we just completed all our projects - properly - and moth balled ourselves we'd be worth well more than today's market cap. We are being rated as a total basket case IMO.

Time to sell the company or explain to shareholders why it's worth carrying on?

JMHO

[panic investor] 03/9/2016 12:42

are there any new contracts over the horizon ? Bottom fishing and came across these.

[puzzler2] 02/9/2016 16:00

I'm also in for a few of these today - I haven't held any for about three years or so and fundamentally, I believe it's a quality business, despite its recent difficulties.

[kmann] 02/9/2016 11:22

Not held LAM for a while, since 120s, so reaquainted myself, and started to scale back in.

Six rigs due to complete, cash rich, asset rich, partnerships with Saudi Aramco, Bahri and Hyundai Heavy Industries.

No brainer buy of the month imo

[cc2014] 01/9/2016 22:58

From memory £80m of that cash is repayable in 4 lots over the next four years.

[targatarga] 01/9/2016 22:53

I'm back in today. A volatile stock but if you catch it right anythings possible!

[srpactive] 01/9/2016 10:45

Yes,many do read my posts, now you are one of them Bazzer1000.

regards

active

[bazzer1000] 01/9/2016 10:32

Maybe. A wise (and very successful) investor once said buy stock at a discount to it's net tangible book value, it gives a good margin of safety. Baz

[srpactive] 01/9/2016 10:17

Are you thinking you have unearthed a bargain?

The management probably think similar, mbo
at 120p, I reckon.

dyor

regards

active