Ladbrokes Share Discussion Threads

[peterz] 26/8/2015 07:59

Blimey, slippage.

[oneillshaun] 24/8/2015 12:39

96p is look close.

[adh0] 24/8/2015 10:16

Indeed, but catching the very bottom is just luck, you have to ride the swings. I am still not stopped out just yet!

[oneillshaun] 24/8/2015 08:52

adh0 - hate to say i told you so, think it could down a little more i was looking to buy at 100p but i think 95p is just around the corner.

[adh0] 21/8/2015 15:31

Maybe, maybe not, and you've got to be in it to win it!

[oneillshaun] 21/8/2015 15:09

next week you would have got more for your money.

[adh0] 21/8/2015 14:49

I'm in, not for a lot mind you.

[oneillshaun] 21/8/2015 14:39

Sub 102p happy buying.

[oneillshaun] 21/8/2015 14:05

52 week low hitting real soon.

[oneillshaun] 21/8/2015 10:56

I think you will get you 102p dead on today, i will waiting out a little for 100p but i am going for a pretty big chunk again, i made a huge mistake on this when we hit 140p i didn't sell and let it drift.

I won't be making that mistake again.

[adh0] 21/8/2015 10:12

Which is close! It might not get hit but I'm going to be patient and wait. There is plenty of other cheap shares available elsewhere right now anyway.

[oneillshaun] 21/8/2015 09:51

it hit 102.80 this morning.

[adh0] 21/8/2015 09:46

I'm in if it gets to 102, I recon £1 will hold. Looking for a quick 10% bounce. Stop loss at 96p.

[oneillshaun] 21/8/2015 07:57

getting closer.

[oneillshaun] 12/8/2015 15:20

Still waiting for a nice entry point around 100p i have a feeling next week it will happen.

[supercity] 12/8/2015 08:31

Britain at the bookies is a real eye opener- assuming all companies are of a similar ilk a comment was made by a coral managerEach machine in our shops makes an average £870 per weekEach shop in the country makes an average £5000 per weekEach shop has four machinesI never realised the huge importance and reliability these machines are to the shops, a massive part of their profit.

[freddie01] 11/8/2015 18:42

I'm not a holder but a quick mention of the website being 1000% better than it has been.

Getting the basics right.Good luck holders.

[capercaillie] 11/8/2015 17:38

Plenty of work to be done here. A lot of effort goes towards the taxman.

[scallywagkid] 07/8/2015 10:19

Canaccord 07 August...

Raising Recommendation

Strategic downgrades, but raise to BUY

What's new
Ladbrokes is due to announce interim results on 11 August, but the key numbers were pre-released in July. Perhaps surprisingly, H1 profits were as expected, down 32%, reflecting the impact of Point of Consumption tax, increased Machines duty and a weak sports margin. LAD would have been on track for FY15 expectations however, new CEO Jim Mullen also unveiled his strategic review, which included the expected dividend cut from 8.9p to 3p, ramping up digital marketing spend and accelerating roll-out of Self-Service Betting Terminals and pace of store closures. It has raised £113m through a placing to rebuild the balance sheet and there were £5m-£7m of cost savings identified to be delivered from FY16. Most had been trailed in the press, but the net impact was at the higher end of expectations, given a £20m H2 hit from the investment programme.

Impact on the Canaccord Genuity view
The strategic pill was perhaps a touch more bitter than hoped (short-term), but sugared by a potential Coral merger reported in the press which we believe could drive material synergies. We downgrade our FY15 PBT (norm) from £67.5m/6.5p to £46.8m/4.4p, a 33% EPS downgrade, while FY16 falls from £76.5m/7.4p to £73.8m/6.5p (down 12%). The plan is designed to deliver higher Earnings from FY17 (with digital revenues up to 30% of group total) but this looks ambitious to us and our FY17 EPS are cut by 1%. Net debt comes down to £332m (or 2.2x Ebitda) and should fall below 2x in FY16. However, the real excitement is the potential Coral merger - unlikely to complete before mid-2016. At the current LAD share price, it would be paying just 8.3x FY16 Ebitda, ex-synergies, which looks attractive - in line with the LAD valuation, but with a higher proportion of Digital profits. The synergy target of £65m also looks unambitious - at just 4% of combined group costs. The challenge is calculating dis-synergies. With 3998 stores, or a 45% UK market share, we would assume LADCOR will almost certainly have to sell/close stores. If we assume these are averagely profitable LAD stores and sell for a 4x Ebitda multiple (some will just be shut), then a 500 store disposal would knock £34m off Ebitda, but only 20 basis points off the FY16 EV/Ebitda multiple.

Valuation
Standalone Ladbrokes is not a steal, on FY16E PER of 16.9x and yielding 3.0%, but an 8.0x EV/Ebitda looks attractive. And LADCOR would look a lot more interesting. If we assume £220m of Coral Ebitda in FY16 (up from £200m in FY14), the full £65m synergy target (in reality this will be phased, but should be exceeded), and 500 store closures, we calculate the look through FY16 EV/Ebitda multiple would be just 7.2x. By comparison, William Hill is on 9.8x (albeit with a higher digital mix). We raise our TP from 115p to 123p, representing a 9.0x FY16E EV/Ebitda for solus Ladbrokes. With regulatory clearance of the Coral deal with "reasonable" conditions (i.e. c.500 stores), that would fall below 8.0x (assuming a full £65m of synergies), suggesting further upside to our target price. There is execution risk - both strategy delivery and merger - but this looks over-stated in the price. We raise our recommendation from Hold to BUY.

Share performance catalyst
Regulatory clearance/penalties for Coral deal, Digital recovery, machines regulation.

[porsche888] 05/8/2015 19:08

This has plenty of upward mileage on offer, football season etc

[oneillshaun] 04/8/2015 11:24

sure that will help the share price, i am looking forward to buying back in at around the 100p mark.

[capercaillie] 03/8/2015 19:09

Received interesting Ladbroke 'season ticket' for targeting the new football season. Very slick document.

[woozle1] 02/8/2015 19:06

Ptec playing the long game .. They are canny operators and you should follow them in .. W

[oneillshaun] 29/7/2015 08:36

72k sold 15 minutes not showing up.

[oneillshaun] 28/7/2015 11:05

Playtech must be real happy with the investment only down £6m in a couple of days.