Kinovo Share Discussion Threads

[dyor2] 13/9/2023 08:28

With each new contract announcement it’s becoming increasingly evident, surely even to our institutional investors, just how substantially Tim Scott’s 56p “offer” undervalues Kinovo. I estimate that the new contracts announced in the last couple of weeks will add c.£12m p.a. to revenues, which last year were £63m. Yes, Kinovo is now (sensibly) investing in additional personnel and infrastructure to take advantage of the growth opportunities, so perhaps for now one shouldn’t upgrade profit forecasts for the current year too far. But EBITDA of at least £6m looks nailed on, with substantial growth potential thereafter. The 56p bid values Kinovo at £35m, i.e. an EBITDA multiple of only 5.8x. Further, Kinovo turns at least 90% of its EBITDA into cash as its business is inherently capital light. IMV, once the remaining DCB contracts are complete, Kino will be generating £6m p.a. in free cash flow. That’s a 17% p.a. free cash flow return on the bid price, set to increase with each passing year! I can certainly see why Tim Scott wants to own it, but not at this price please.

[qs99] 13/9/2023 07:44

More good news.

[someuwin] 13/9/2023 07:08

Kinovo plc

("Kinovo" or the "Company")

Decarbonisation Direct Award

Kinovo Plc (AIM: KINO), the specialist property services group that delivers compliance and sustainability solutions, is pleased to announce it has received a direct award with an anticipated value of GBP4.8 million over 19 months through The Greener Futures Partnership's ("GFP") Decarbonisation Framework. This is Kinovo's first direct award following the Company's placement on the GFP Framework as announced on 22 May 2023.

The framework comprises five housing associations and over 300,000 homes, representing 9% of the total social housing market. Kinovo's two sub-lots cover two of the framework's five geographic regions, namely London and the South and East of England. In March 2023, the GFP was awarded GBP40.4 million from Wave 2.1 of the Government's Social Housing Decarbonisation Fund, which will be match funded by GFP by a minimum of the same value. Total investment value of around GBP95 million nationally is currently anticipated by GFP under this framework between 2023 to 2025.

Kinovo's direct award is to undertake whole house retrofit energy efficiency works compliant with PAS 2030:2019 and PAS 2035:2019 for approximately 200 properties. Works are due to start in September 2023 for an initial term of 19 months until March 2025.

Following this and other recent direct awards and contract wins, the Company has invested further in its Renewables pillar, strengthening the team with three additional roles; a fully qualified Retrofit Assessor and Co-ordinator as our Retrofit Lead, alongside a Technical Co-ordinator and Retrofit Liaison Officer. These additions will provide further technical expertise and qualifications covering Domestic Retrofit, Domestic Energy Assessment and Green Deal Advisory services.

David Bullen, Chief Executive Officer of Kinovo plc, commented:

"We are pleased to have won our first direct award under the GFP Decarbonisation Framework, at a value of GBP4.8 million, and the latest in a series of new contracts and direct awards under our Renewables pillar. I believe Kinovo has all the qualifications, skills and experience to act as a "one stop shop" to support housing associations and local councils in meeting the Government's net zero carbon emissions target by 2050, alongside their objective for all social homes to achieve an EPC "C" rating by 2030."

[dyor2] 08/9/2023 13:31

Very strange 8.3 disclosure from Jefferies today. They’ve disclosed a long position in Kino of 1,141,484 shares (1.8% of the company) and a derivative short position of exactly the same amount of shares. Jefferies has a specialist derivatives desk, and to me this means they’ve either written (sold) a call option over these shares (i.e. given somebody the right to buy the shares at a fixed price in return for call premium payment to Jefferies), or purchased a put option over the shares (i.e. Jefferies has the right to sell the shares at a fixed price to the counterparty to the put option). It looks to me that this arrangement must have been put in place before the bid announcement, because there haven’t been trades in this amount of shares since then. But if their counterparty is a single entity now holding a call option over 1,141,484 shares (1.8% of Kino) then surely this would have been disclosed under Panel rules? Hmm…..I’m getting out of my depth here: has anybody out there with more experience than me in derivatives markets got an innocent explanation for this? Could it have to do with a spread betting position? Or stock lending? It just seems a tad fishy to me - how and why would anybody establish this size of matched physical long/derivative short position in a company like Kinovo? But as I say I’ve got no experience of trading derivatives, so maybe I’m being paranoid….

[nico115] 08/9/2023 07:17

"As a result of the continued progress of the Company's Business Development, Kinovo has invested in another Bid Manager and an Estimator to provide the team with additional resources to build on this positive momentum."This is the key.The BOD are obviously mega bullish and I just can't see them recommend any bid anywhere near current mkt price.Actually ,imho it would need to be at a 50pct premium at least .

[patsc100] 07/9/2023 14:02

@Nickcarr1 yes, exactly. This was my thought as well. Let the traders get out and the long-term shareholders buy in.

This will just strengthen the shareholder base.

[nico115] 07/9/2023 13:16

I added today Hopefully I lose on the purchase in the short term though : )Todays news is game changing .I'm very confident for the future.

[nickcarr1] 07/9/2023 08:34

If I were a short term trader who bought in to capture a quick 10pc+ return following the takeover news, I'd probably be selling today and moving on to the next opportunity. Mission accomplished.
So let them go, and in the mean time longer term investors will accumulate

[qs99] 07/9/2023 08:30

Amazing RNS yet shares down 1p, no idea....

[nico115] 07/9/2023 07:13

Wow ,unbelievable RNS.No wonder the BOD rejected the bod of 56p!Anyone wanting to buy Kinovo now will have to pay substantially more .

[qs99] 07/9/2023 07:10

Boom....cracking RNS....should see shares well North of 65p IMO...DYOR cheap bid now history.....

[nico115] 06/9/2023 23:06

Very large positions who think like him that Kinovo has huge upside .He probably thinks he can sell the co at 150p within 3 years ..don't we all !Great to see so many retail holders here who hold so much equity .

[nico115] 06/9/2023 23:04

Agreed DyorImho there is zero chance TS gets 75pct so zero chance he can delist .That's not something he will want ..So 1/ to make a conventional take over bid is v expensive .2/ can't make a scheme cos can't get 75pct 3/ he will end up with 30 to 40pct out of his control ..he won't want that ! I think he had no idea just how many large retail holders there are with very large positions

[dyor2] 06/9/2023 13:14

The Directors have a fiduciary duty to act in the best interests of all shareholders, large and small. I’m sure they’re well aware of that. I certainly am.

If there is a revised bid from Rx3, the Board must advise shareholders whether or not in their view it represents full value for the business. That must include an update on current trading prospects, together with an indication of the longer term potential of Kinovo’s inclusion in several key framework procurement programmes.

[patsc100] 06/9/2023 12:39

@AIM2105 thanks for clarifying!

[qs99] 06/9/2023 11:05

well said all, Nick slater loading up and finding it hard to buy any also speaks volumes, fair play to him. DYOR as ever, market is telling us the "non-bid" is dead in the water. Now for a decent trading update hopefully? DYOR

[nico115] 06/9/2023 10:32

Yes I saw that and was about to post "I'm sorry you sold out here "This framework is a very big deal and in my opinion it highlights how much value we have in Kinovo .Wouldn't surprise me if we sold out at c150p within 2 years.I personally can't see any company on Aim that has the growth prospects we have .

[sooty snipes] 06/9/2023 10:27

aim2105 - 07 Jul 2022 - 16:02:43 - 484 of 914 Kinovo - public sector housing services under the radar - KINO

I have been invested in this from the Bilby days and recently sold out at a big loss and cannot feel comfortable with this whole situation.
======================================================

Aw..........Ever get that feeling you sold out at the wrong time?

[aim2105] 06/9/2023 10:07

This is laughable, you’re all getting carried away with a framework?! Frameworks mean nothing until clients utilise them, framework values are not contract amounts, why would they announce anything?!

Come back when you understand social housing frameworks!!!!

[greg the grinch] 05/9/2023 22:07

Aim recovered from SXX.......

[nico115] 05/9/2023 20:57

If this is a definitive award then the BOD range should be 75p to 100pTo even contemplate a lower valuation would be a shock that Aim would never recover from .There will be HUGE upgrades if revenue is estimated to increase by at least 40m . No wonder Tim Scott LOVES kino . A very wise man indeed .

[nico115] 05/9/2023 18:14

Totally agree PatDavid Bullen and Sangita have retail holders best interests at heart .Will be shocked if they sell us out too early on this very exciting journey .Even if I'm to be a minority shareholder I want to hold Kinovo for many years to come and see David Bullen and his great team build Kinovo into a giant .This framework deal looks incredible ...I think the market hasn't caught on yet ..I'm sure Tim Scott has though !! He LOVES kinovo and quite rightly so .

[patsc100] 05/9/2023 17:59

I am still very surprised that there's no RNS announcment.

Kinovo and 4 other construction specialty service businesses have been awarded with a 150m contract over the next 4 years.

Just assuming that all of them receive an equal share, we end up with 30m in additional revenue over 4 years.

If we distribute this equally, we get to 7.5m in GBP in annual revenue just in the 1st Q.

Average EBITDA-Margins are 10%+. This equals an additional EBITDA of 750,000. We're already have 15% YoY revenue growth.

hxxps://bidstats.uk/tenders/2023/W29/802816309

[nico115] 05/9/2023 17:36

Tim will want 75pct in order to delist Retail hold too many for thatAlso the framework win mentioned on twitter looks like an incredible win and that's why I'm still buying.

[qs99] 05/9/2023 17:30

Decent trading update IMO will see this motor… then let’s see where the bid goes!

DYOR