Kingspan Share Discussion Threads

[father o toole] 06/8/2008 13:20

chucked in another hand grenade at 760.

[father o toole] 05/8/2008 21:23

Dj, the serious shorting hasn`t even started yet, today was only a bit of target practice.

[djderry] 05/8/2008 21:20

Keep up the in-depth analysis and the shorting!

[father o toole] 05/8/2008 13:57

goggin

I could not resist anymore, i just had to short some more, my next short will be 750 and then 800, iam just dreading missing the boat here.

[father o toole] 05/8/2008 11:59

what a great company this is,

[father o toole] 30/7/2008 16:36

goggin

i think kingspan will have a job getting over 650 again.

[goggin] 30/7/2008 07:28

Fr - your right about the buy back - at 6€ and below.

[father o toole] 29/7/2008 21:03

goggin, your a handy boy with the charts

[goggin] 29/7/2008 20:30

yes by Christmas but in the mean time it might jump around quite a bit.

[father o toole] 29/7/2008 14:12

goggin, hows it going kid?

Do you still think kgp can get up to 8euros? its not making much headway at present and thats even with a buyback scheme.

I can see this share below 4e by christmas, i just hope it bounces up a bit first.

[goggin] 25/7/2008 18:34

I dont think you missed it, watch for a rebound to 2nd week in August and keep an eye on the oil price, we may have a lull before the storm -

[father o toole] 25/7/2008 18:30

goggin you are only seeing the start of the property crash, it started in America a year before uk/ireland and prices in america are still falling.

I do hope kingspan can pull themselves up to at least 7.50 again as i took some profits this morning and i`d be gutted if they plunged and i missed it.

[goggin] 25/7/2008 12:34

Hi FOT
I feel and this is only a personal opinion - I could be completely wrong - Property needs to drop back to the 04 level before it will look like its worth buying again. people here in northern ireland never really had a property crash before, basically because there was never any real growth here until the cease fire's in 94, priory to that property just limped along and only gained in select areas like Stranmillis in belfast where property was always in demand and rental yields were good.

The way I price property is by following long term averages, ie
take property back in 1998, the average 3 - 4 bed detached here in N.I. was 50 - 80k.
Now if you add and compound at the historical long term rate of 7-8%, that same property would be using 98 as our starting year:
say 70k
98 75k 99 80k 00 86k 01 92k 02 99k 03 106k 04 114k 05 122k 06 131k 07 140k 08 150K obviously this depends where you start but around 200k is about right. another way to work out the true value is look at the yield, ie
if it rents for £550/ month = £6600 / year / 5% ( .05 ) = 132000 + 2 time yearly salary at average of £30k pa = 132k = 60K = £192k
The above is my own way of working out property values but whether people like it or not, the true price will be around these values.
My friend has put his 5 bed detached on the market in newcastle co down for £420k, the true value is more like £295K, he is a builder and knows everything, by the time he wakes up to reality, he could be quite a lot older and more than a few pounds short of £420k.
In short 100 - 150k of is about right but there is no need to rush to buy, this will last at least another 3 years and possibly 5. because Ireland is such a small place, it may even have a longer effect, there is really nothing to compare with a country with such a tiny population which had such an enormous rise in property values. So many people in early on clearly made a fortune, what they have done with their money is a key question, did they just reinvest in more of the same?

[father o toole] 25/7/2008 09:29

goggin

hows house prices in your area, in cookstown there`s one site that has a sign up saying £100,000 off, still no buyers and all those sites are closed.

[father o toole] 24/7/2008 21:52

goggin, welcome to this thread, i think its better because you can see the charts and news.

I dont blame the brokers after all those boys are just there to milk the system. Also the big shareholders put big pressure on companies nowadays to do buybacks, its just a short tem fix for a long term problem.

At the end of the day strong management should put their foot down and preserve their capital.

[goggin] 24/7/2008 21:27

those idiots at davies stockbrookers are total wasters, advising any company that is so heavly dependant on the building sector to buy back their shares before there is light at the end of the tunnel should be lined up and SHOT AT DAWN - I dispise those people.
You would also think that the financial team at KGP would have enough brains to also wait for light at the end of the tunnel, they made so much money on the way up that now they only see the world through rose tinted glasses - will the last one out, please turn out the light.

[father o toole] 24/7/2008 18:37

sleepy

Yes i see the 105% rule on a 5 day average.

I have also seen buybacks suspended days before bad news were announced.

[father o toole] 24/7/2008 16:35

no buybacks this week so far, the seems reluctant to pay over 6 euros for their own stock, either that or they have seen the latest sales figures and are preparing another profits warning.

[father o toole] 23/7/2008 16:44

i`ve been following his example ever since and did so again today.

[father o toole] 23/7/2008 16:43

fair play to Eugene he saw the writing on the wall and took the right action, selling over 40m euros worth at 20e per share.

[lbo] 23/7/2008 16:39

Shell-shock as investors flee Irish shares



Some senior executives in the country's biggest listed companies have seen massive falls in the value of their shareholdings from the highs of early 2007. In reality, many of them have cashed in tens or hundreds of millions of euro over the years. However, the paper value of their stakes is something they all still watch closely.

Among the biggest fallers are Eugene Murtagh, chairman of Kingspan, whose stake in the company he founded was worth €800 million in May 2007, but which last week was valued at €207million, a fall of €593 million

[lbo] 23/7/2008 16:35

Kingspan to postpone plans for London timber frame plant


Plans for a large timber frame facility outside of London are expected to be put on ice by Kingspan, as the building market in Ireland and Britain continues its slowdown