Kingspan Share Discussion Threads

[djderry] 22/7/2008 19:34

We really have nothing in common.The idea that an investor should make a prediction about the 'price' of a share in a company at some future point in time is pure folly.Why would I want to do that? There are many things over which I have no control.That is just one of them.What I do is investigate a company,try to identify the 'best of breed' and then decide if it is reasonably priced.(It's better if I can buy it for less than its worth).Then I let macro events( the economy,price of oil etc.)take care of themselves.I have no interest in making a quick buck.I am working towards wealth accumulation through stocks and other asset classes.Compounding,dividend re-investment and asset allocation all play their part.Do I make mistakes? You bet.(The tech bubble taught me very expensive lessons which I hope I have learned.)I'm not some kind of gadfly that flits from share to share as the 'price action' hots up.I realise that the share price is about the least helpful pieces of information about a company.So you see,we won't see eye to eye.May I suggest that shareholders post on one thread and that the 'others' post on another thread?

[goggin] 22/7/2008 16:40

OK - all you that are long and cant face reality - post you average price and lets see what happens, if I'm totally wrong and this probably applies to others as well, we will hold up our hands but so far, not one of you that are long have put up a credible argument why this will head north and put a price on it - go on - I challenge you - stop sticking your head in the sand like the so called experts who got this property market so horribly wrong - not one has the balls or creditability to say sorry to the poor unfortunate punters who followed them over the cliff and are now staring into the abyss. No one told them gearing works both ways, big gains on the way up but total wipe out on the way down unless you have very deep pockets or are nimble enough to get out fast - sorry the truth hurts.
Call it "Bertie" truth's if you like!

[lochgarman] 22/7/2008 13:35

djderry.....i wouldnt waste my breath...its really not worth it.

let them learn the hard way...and indeed they will.

[father o toole] 22/7/2008 10:51

Can kingspan aford to spend over 100m euros buying back their own stock at these high price in the middle of a housing slump?

I guess they cants and they will join a very long list of companies which have tried it only to watch their shareprices crash afterwards.

[father o toole] 22/7/2008 10:12

goggin, you do speak alot of wisdom, except of course your views on Tir Eoaghan

[djderry] 21/7/2008 22:08

You see,short ones,we are not the same.Some of us here are investors,shareholders,part owners of the company.We investigate the co.,it's markets,it's profits by division and territory and so on.Then we make our investment decisions.I am not a trader as some on here obviously are.I am not one of the 'trend-is -your-friend' lemmings,always happy to jump off the nearest cliff once they've got company.I'm not trying to 'talk down' shares because I trade on margin and can only make a profit by buying back shares I don't own at a lower price.I've seen it all before.What tends to happen over time is that the bears,getting burnt,close their positions.(Basically they lack any conviction.They think they've made the 'right' choice if the share price goes down and the 'wrong' choice if it goes up!).Then they fall back on the 'trend is your whatever-you're having-yourself',change their user names and become bulls! Some actually have a few nom de plumes and conduct a kind of bipolar conversation with themselves! ( I've noticed it on the Cattles board where I've avoided posting too often is case I scare the bears out of their positions!).In essence,then,we should have a board for investors and one for the flying-by-the-seat-of-their pants brigade.

[lochgarman] 21/7/2008 21:23

djderry...i totally agree.....lol lol

[father o toole] 21/7/2008 20:20

goggin, being a born and bred Tyrone man i dont follow those lesser teams.

[father o toole] 21/7/2008 20:19

look fella

First and foremost this is a bulidings supply company with a mkt cap of 1.2b, it gets more thab 3/4 of its profits from supplying the building industry in the UK and Ireland, that building industry in in a slump, not a slow down but a crash.

I`ll tell you another thing, i follow companies that do buybacks because its a sign that they are in denial, they always crash afterwards, it destroys shareholder value.

Kingspan has 1/3b on its balance sheet as goodwill, thats just nonsense, i have a 2 euro target within 4 months.

[craffert] 21/7/2008 20:07

I wouldn't short these any more.

50% of the UK's carbon emissions are due to poor buildings - residential and commercial. The only practical way to correct this internationally embarrasing situation is to invest in high quality insulation materials (ie) polyurethane based insulation boards.

There are reports coming out from BERR that UK Govt. is being advised that they will not hit their targets by only focussing on new build targets...there is an emerging body of scientific and policy opinion now saying that retrofit must happen if fuel poverty / kyoto / emmissions targets to be achieved by the UK.

Just like there can be lots of negative news in the construction materials sector, there can also be some unexpected positives. If the UK Govt. decide to support retrofit insulation then the companies which stand to benefit massively are Kingspan, SIG and Superglass....and what do you know, all three are witnessing share price turnarounds these days....I wonder why.

I am a KGP shareholder for the first time (bought in at €5.88)...I think they are a no brainer long term investment given climate change policies and their leading position in the insulation market.

DYOR before shorting

[goggin] 21/7/2008 18:38

FO - good for you, i hope they do and it turns into a good trade.
are you a GAA fan - do you follow it? Fermanagh v Armagh

[father o toole] 21/7/2008 16:37

goggin, iam afraid of them puting out a trading update and the shares collapsing while i was waiting for 8e again, its great value being short at this level and if they can manage 8 euros i`ll sell some more.

[goggin] 21/7/2008 15:01

Hi FOT
I feel they will just follow the market, currently the drop was very fast therefor i expect the market to recover from last weeks low for app 20 days or 10% ish what ever the time period, hence I see kgp back up to the top of the channel, they might even break through, its not an exact science but then a swift fall into November when we should get to the 2 -3 euro range. I'd personally be weary of shorts just yet in an over sold market, by that I mean the slide was that steep that a pull back was likely generall somewhere after the 7 - 9 week time period.
Good luck but keep an eye on the market as kgp are big enough to follow the market. 10% on the market could = 25 - 50 % on kgp.
at these levels 50% on 5 euro = 7.5 euro so its easly achievable on romour / speculation.

[father o toole] 21/7/2008 13:14

Over 300m euros worth of "goodwill" on the balance sheet. what a shocker

[father o toole] 21/7/2008 10:56

goggin, do you think they`ll be able to get these back to 8 euros? i`ve reshorted at 7.05, i was looking at their accounts last night and of their 1b mt cap nearly 1 third of it is made up of goodwill.

Also is Anglo their bankers?

[djderry] 18/7/2008 18:05

Please do not misuse the apostrophe.

[lbo] 18/7/2008 10:44

It has also been speculated that Quinn was big buyer of shares in Eugene Murtagh's Kingspan using CFD's

[father o toole] 17/7/2008 11:10

nice chart goggin

[goggin] 17/7/2008 10:15

Will the bounce bring it back to 8 - 9 euros before another sell off, markets are currently over sold and a large bounce is possible - all be it short lived, possibly a 3 week bounce or possibly a 6 week retracement befor further fall in Sept - Nov.

free stock charts from www.advfn.com

[lochgarman] 11/7/2008 17:30

buffets getting old?....the older you get the more experience you have in this game.

dont write him off just yet.