Kier Share Discussion Threads

[mrminister] 06/2/2008 11:29

legal & general topping up along with barclays lately.....nice

[mrminister] 04/2/2008 15:04

anybody about on here ???

[taylor20] 25/1/2008 12:23

In Charles Stanley's Monthly Bulletin there was a finger in the air valuation of Kier:

Kier (KIE.L) A calculation of the company's 'sum of the parts' value produces an historic figure (end of June 2007) of c.£748m (2044p a share). The assumptions used follow: the 6,445 building plots with consent (i.e. not the strategic landbank of 11,500 plots) are valued at cost (£42,500), the construction division at a multiple of 10, the support services division at 12, the property division at the value of its capital employed and the PFI portfolio using a discount rate of 7%. Cash of £150m and a pension deficit at the year end of £22m complete the arithmetic. The shares at 1350p are on a prospective P/E of 7.6 and yield 4.1%. Market capitalisation is £498m. This leaves the current market value of the company looking, at the very least, odd. Accumulate (change from Hold at 1499p in December 2007).

[andrew09] 25/1/2008 12:12

sell note from M.Lynch may not have helped

[fieldhouse] 25/1/2008 12:09

cutbacks in govt spending and PFI,s at a guess is the additional problem.imho

[nigelpm] 25/1/2008 10:24

I agree Dave. Bought a few yesterday. Was expecting to top up but not this soon

;-!

Remember they have a huge stash of cash as well.

[davidosh] 25/1/2008 08:48

Surely the company should buyback some of their own shares at these levels ?

[elmbury] 25/1/2008 08:40

Anyone any ideas why Kier is bucking the bounce back - well down on most other housebuilder and infrastructure stocks?

[qs9] 22/1/2008 16:16

Hope no-one short today....

[johnrxx99] 17/1/2008 12:23

Property coming back on recession worries, resources down.

[qs9] 17/1/2008 11:12

bouncing nicely, looks very strong in very weak markets IMO....any thoughts?

[qs9] 11/1/2008 11:54

Still moving in the right direction. Too well run a company with great track record IMO to be hammered as much as rest of stocks / sector....earnings forecasts have not from what I see been brought back, so sitting on low p/e and yield....

[qs9] 11/1/2008 07:38

Lets hope upward trend continues today...costain's RNS may have helped slightly....

[qs9] 10/1/2008 18:54

All valid points, but IMO, this is way way oversold. Balance sheet is healthy and order book is healthy (IMO), weather a downturn like it has done before I am sure, management are good as well as history has shown, so I am holding on in there, hopefully they will hike the divi substantially to show the shorters what for!

NOtice of results at one point pushed share price up nearly £1 so shows you this is not necessarily down on fundamentals, more shorters....IMO...good luck

[johnrxx99] 10/1/2008 09:58

Oh joy, hope it's longer than a day.

[johnrxx99] 09/1/2008 09:42

There are always low margins in construction and facilities. But they have good visibility, whatever it may be. I think the results will be good with a cautious outlook. Spec development is out of the picture for the moment, like early ninties but rents may hold up. Dont know how much commercial sites they have but values will be hit. Their long term contracts are the jewel to cash flow and I dont think people will stop buying house completely, unless unemployment gets much worse.

So give it one year if the credit crunch is the only problem. 3 if ressession imo.

[glentimon] 09/1/2008 09:09

Yield hunters unlikely to find this attractive either, though less risk of dividend cut? My recent buys not too smart, should have looked closer at the financials.

[woracle] 09/1/2008 06:44

the thing i have never liked about kie are the very low margins. In any downturn the profits would disappear very quick. I guess the market is pricing for that.

[johnrxx99] 09/1/2008 01:43

But over 50% reduction in share price is too much in my opinion. The market is assuming no sales but I just dont see that. However, the shorters are slamming the property market and until they feel the pain it wont stop. So time to be out and wait. Plenty more fish until next year.

[woracle] 08/1/2008 23:51

Chart feels like broker downgrades coming. The homes division, excluding social housing is about 35% of earnings. Surely its been hit badly in his current slowdown. Housing's margin was 15%.. if they have been discounting 5-10% to shift stock which seems the norm with new housing lately, could hit the bottom line here pretty bad. Guess we'll know soon enough..and even an exceed expectations result like Keller didnt help much, especially if the construction/housing downturn is only just starting in UK. Interesting..so many apparent bargains in construction.

[matthewa] 08/1/2008 16:03

Looks terminal

[qs9] 21/12/2007 19:12

rate cut IMO will be in NY, 1/4% on the cards.....new contracts today all help....good management, recent upgrades, ungeared balance sheet, all confidence for medium to long term iMO...

[johnrxx99] 06/12/2007 08:31

Agreed QS9, I'm sticking with them but havnt topped up yet as my confidence in a rate cut is low.

[qs9] 05/12/2007 20:22

Possibly some institutions acting like short-term herd as usual and trying to dump stock perhaps? Lots of movements these days being exaggerated iMO...am sticking with these guys as they have proved time and time again that they deliver and IMO these will show very healthy returns......and interest rate cut will help....