Kentz Share Discussion Threads

[sheyac] 11/9/2013 14:01

Looks like a tree shake. A lot of stops at 535 it seems, and they were immediately sold back by the MM at around 550.

[davr0s] 11/9/2013 13:31

And again - this time deeper. Is someone talking about this bid somewhere?

[davr0s] 11/9/2013 13:28

What was that all about - down 2% in a matter of seconds.... Cant see any news.. Recovered as quickly as it fell so maybe a shake

[roddiemac2] 11/9/2013 08:33

pontification.

[roddiemac2] 11/9/2013 08:33

pontification.

[steeplejack] 11/9/2013 00:11

Ah you mean that wisdom lies in knowing you know nothing.Are you sure you wouldn't be better reading a bit of Aristotle or Socrates.Don't fatigue yourself with the postings of the blind ol' boy.

[roddiemac2] 10/9/2013 17:49

steeplejack

nobody suggested that" market moves were completely random in the short term". I am suggesting , however, that you are looking for meaning where there is little or no meaning.

[steeplejack] 10/9/2013 10:10

Que sera sera

[spob] 10/9/2013 09:40

I'm guessing the only thing worth discussing on here, will be what we read in the Sunday papers on the 15th.

[steeplejack] 10/9/2013 09:24

Whether you like it not,the market does reflect buying and selling pressures in the short term and take into account or discount,a general swell of opinion.Thus,it is quite acceptable as prices move,to comment that the market " thinks" or is " suggesting" or is " discounting" etc in an attempt to identify the body of opinion that currently holds sway over the stock price movements.Whether these short term stock price moves give an unreliable indication as to long term price moves is irrelevant in this context.The fact is,if Amec decides to house any intention to bid,Kentz will fall perhaps 10% to £5.A loosely held consensus holds sway over the rating afforded to a stock at any given time and to suggest that market moves are completely random in the short term is pedantic.The long term consists of a series of short terms.

[roddiemac2] 09/9/2013 20:05

The market is not suggesting anything.It has no intelligence .

[steeplejack] 09/9/2013 13:10

Amec appear to believe that their bid of around 580p fairly valued Kentz and they should know what Kentz is worth to them.As implied by Amec,if the approach hadn't leaked out then a deal might well have been done perhaps at a slightly higher price?.....but now there's obviously all sorts going on behind the scenes.The market is suggesting that the likelihood of a bid approach is now receding and "time value" is reducing ahead of the 16th.Might be right,might be wrong.I agree it's unlikely that a third party will enter the fray until they know what Amec intends,

[999plunger] 08/9/2013 19:56

W1lk0 White Knight yes indeed. The Soothsayer predicts "Beware the Ides of KBR"
Kellogs have an excellent working relationship with Kentz in all areas of the globe. They would certainly prefer to work with Kentz rather than AMEC.
Just on the balance of a possible AMEC bid KBR would come in higher!!! Mark my words.

[life of crime] 08/9/2013 14:26

I think a 3rd party will wait until the 16th and see if another bid emerges. If it does not, then they can come forward with their own offer @ £6+, or they can look at the value of an improved bid from AMEC and weigh up their position.

Personally, I expect AMEC to come back at 650p, which is a fairer offer and takes the cash reserves into account. Kenz won't be happy but I think the IIs will be content to cash in and move on.

[w1lk0] 06/9/2013 17:14

stuffee/mamcw How would you see a potential 3rd bidder ( american say ) playing their hand ?

see how things develope and then come in as a white knight ?

[haywards26] 06/9/2013 14:15

Stuffee,

I think in order for Kentz to open their books up for due dilligence a formal bid higher than what has already been rejected would have to be made.

The share price is dripping down each day no matter what the wider market does so my comment was my reasoning for this.

I personally am not too bothered about the current share price, as I am invested in Kentz the business and more interested in the value I attach to the fundamentals and profitability.

[mamcw] 06/9/2013 13:31

Volume traded has suddenly dried up today. Could this be that one of the potential bidders is going round making the big shareholders insiders with a view to tieing up irrevocables (which is what I would be doing to force a reluctant management team to the table).

[life of crime] 06/9/2013 13:20

I think there won't be another offer until near to the 16th and that it will be circa the 650p IIs have indicated would be acceptable, but subject to due diligence.

[stuffee] 06/9/2013 11:51

Haywards

Not sure I agree re timing.

I suggest no bidder is likely to make any move much before 16 Sept. It appears they haven't yet received any significant info from Kentz to start due diligence and they would prefer to keep the ball running to the last possible moment to keep up pressure on Kentz. With two potential bidders, frequently neither wants to make the first move.

IMHO, quite common for share price to drift in early stages of potential offer period due to shareholder impatience and lack of understanding of bidder's tactics.

On 16 Sept I suggest Amec (or M&W) might make an unrecommended offer at say 580 to keep clock ticking and start the formal offer period. There would be no logic of an offer at a higher level at this stage prior to due diligence. The bidder would state it might be prepared to increase bid if Kentz discloses requested info and try and entice shareholder pressure on Kentz to start negotiations. This should lead to a recommended offer at well over say 650 a few weeks later.

There is obviously big risk that both Amec and M&W announce they are walking away on 16 Sept, blaming Kentz's lack of co-operation etc. They would then be unable to proceed with any further bid. I do agree with others' comment that share price would fall but to nothing like the former pre bid level.

However Kentz is such a superb strategic fit for Amec and not that expensive that I doubt it would so weak as to fold its tent and walk.

We will see.....

[roddiemac2] 05/9/2013 20:16

dahhad

This is a good investment whether or not a bid materialises.

It is a mistake to think that the market is saying anything ; markets are rarely rational in the short term.

[dahhad] 05/9/2013 13:56

Thanks Haywards26. I bought them at a peak 2 years ago and several times since in the belief that value had to shine through at some point. The market didn't think so despite numerous positive results and analysis. The fear would be that without a bid we are down to the 400 range again. Hopefully not and the downside stays reasonably near current value! That may be optimistic but fingers crossed for a bid pre 16th!

[haywards26] 05/9/2013 13:35

The market is saying with everyday that passes it is a day closer to the 16th Sept takeover deadline and hence the risks are increasing of a bid not materialising.

But as other posters have mentioned Kentz should be priced at these levels without a bidder.

[dahhad] 05/9/2013 11:59

As someone who has never held shares in a situation like this, is it normal for a steady drift downwards until a bid is actually received or not: or is it a sign that the market doesn't think a bid will come in by the due date and further decline will follow?