Kenmare Resources Share Discussion Threads

[donkey40] 21/8/2018 19:56

Let’s see tomoro’s volume before diving to conclusions - this game of finesse could have a few more twists and turns yet.

This CMD is increasingly intriguing me - as things stood before today’s volume there was nothing much new to talk about as the top 5 had presumably heard it all before. By October, 2 Capital repayments will have been made and the engine is clearly demonstrating cash generation stability.

So I am wondering if this volume is EIB and once it is cleared, there will be announcement that Lenders (who are Development Banks) are replaced by commercial banks. Eg Standard Bank, Rand Merchant Bank, maybe Absa since they are now African and have exited Barclays.

That clears an awful lot of legacy problems associated with the past - and let’s everyone get excited about the future. Maybe at CMD they can tell the non-shareholder IIs that shares are available from the top 4, and hopefully the price then will be closer to 300p level, keeping top 4 happy and letting IIs in well below fair value (who may already have picked up some Lender shares from today).

[murraybasin] 21/8/2018 18:52

Volume always precedes price, in any direction! But while the idiot mob over yonder are having the blue/red debate and calling in the exchange to investigate the 'suspicious trading', it seems that arrogant git BF more or less concluded the same as yourself, and surprisingly, within four minutes. Is the botanical boy yet another one of your aliases? 9,438,397 traded in total today. It seems a logical conclusion that these were lender shares. If we take their 10.8m holding and factor in the M or so from 8/8, say we're about done.

With the lenders off the books the machine can get to work. Won't be too long before Peel Hunt are increasing their price target.

[libertine] 21/8/2018 11:40

11:21:33 230.0000 1,000,000 O 225.0000 230.0000 Buy
11:19:03 230.0000 440,000 O 225.0000 230.0000 Buy
11:05:02 230.0000 745,608 O 225.0000 230.0000 Buy
11:04:15 230.0000 245,608 O 225.0000 230.0000 Buy
10:02:48 230.0000 597,343 O 225.0000 230.0000 Buy
10:02:37 230.0000 597,343 O 225.0000 230.0000 Buy

[donkey40] 21/8/2018 10:37

Light bulb moment - refinance the debt time....

[murraybasin] 21/8/2018 08:18

The legal stuff can be side stepped by changing the holding company structure.

[murraybasin] 20/8/2018 19:38

I think to cover the geopolitical risk the return would have to be around 7%. That implies roughly 15.75p per share, or total of close to £17m or $21m. If the company pays the $21m in dividends, they'd also have to pay $21m extra in sweep repayments. Both things coming together would be received extremely well by the market, even if the payment didn't occur until February 2019, or for example, they did half in February 2019 and half in August 2019. Currently sitting on $80m or so with another $150m to come in the next 18 months. $42m not a big thing especially if that meant reducing gross debt by ~ $40m in total during 2019. End 2019 with gross debt close to $50m but net debt negative.

[murraybasin] 20/8/2018 19:07

That doesn't logically stand since the terms for sweep/restricted cash address both Senior and Subordinated. That points to being able to pay a dividend before the Senior debt is cleared. Using your logic, if the Senior debt is due to be cleared by August 2019, then it supports the probability of dividends being paid earlier than that, and in fact same would also bring forward the retirement of the Senior debt, due to sweep.

[donkey40] 20/8/2018 18:55

Commencement of dividends - I know they are planning to clear the company law legal impediments to paying dividends starting in next few months. I suspect though a dividend won’t be paid until at least after February 2019, being the 3rd capital repayment instalment.
I also note the senior debt (except remainder of Absa share, which switches to Sub-debt) will be repaid by 1 August 2019 - per note 23 of AR 2017.
This makes me wonder if earliest a dividend can or will be paid is somehow linked to the end of Senior Debt.
As we live and breathe progress here, it seems there is a very structured pre-agreed structured and strung out plan being played out. Has a very manufactured feel to it all - just my feeling

[donkey40] 20/8/2018 15:08

My thoughts on potential takeover here - M&G and Capital owned 26% in old KMR and were able to frustrate Iluka Low ball approach and force the Lenders to accept equity for debt swap.
In new KMR, these 2 plus Oman and Majedie currently own 68% equity - it is going to take an offer north of 750p for them to maybe consider a T/O. More likely nearer to £10 before they sell - I wouldn’t hold out massive hope of a T/O any time soon.

[donkey40] 20/8/2018 13:46

Strong numbers and full year should easily see EBITDA north of $100m from 109m shares. Hannan calling fair value 470p, other Brokers are 500+p.
How much longer can the handbrake hold this back. Still if Iluka can report $224m cash flow for the half year and drop $2 or 18%, then clearly something is going on in this sector most of us simply don’t get. Me included.

[datahead] 20/8/2018 13:12

Fool.co.uk seems quite bullish and dividend got mentioned again not much in the share price today

[donkey40] 17/8/2018 10:41

Supa makes an interesting point assuming his point in time prices are broadly correct. And with KMR price still not performing, they certainly are letting Base grow from strength to strength.

[murraybasin] 16/8/2018 21:39

The thought occurred they may be cutting their teeth on SRX before they move on. However, it could all take time (say 3-4 years). I'll take 3-4 years for 3-4x when all of AIM/Mining Juniors is looking for 10x in 1 year. They're certainly having 'issues' with SRX while they had been deep in the operations of KMR with no obvious issues other than they could bring their 'expertise' to the table. Following that, who would be the objectors? Those standing to lose the most?

[donkey40] 16/8/2018 19:49

If this does not encourage you, then mineral sands clearly isn’t the sector for you.

I can’t help but think, Iluka with net debt down to $34m now, and all the proprietary knowledge they gained in KMR back in 2015/6 - well Sierra added decent life rutile. And Moma would added long life ilmenite. Would that be allowed by the competition regulators ?

[donkey40] 14/8/2018 22:11

I reckon there is a buyer sitting at 225p soaking up whatever is available.

[datahead] 10/8/2018 08:40

Ah thats why a bit of life in the price today ! Cool

[libertine] 10/8/2018 08:06

10 Aug Kenmare Resources PLC Peel Hunt Buy 217.50 - 370.00 Initiates/Starts

[murraybasin] 09/8/2018 09:08

WhenIamFree, critical self assessment is a key requirement for all investors. Clearly what you're missing here is precisely that. Your posting on the KMR board in retaliation for his posting on the TLOU board, even though you claim to have him on filter anyway, and yet you clearly know far less about KMR since nothing you post on it has any correlation to where the business and cash generation sit in the real world.

So in a word, you are effectively doing what he does but you are actually worse in way because you claim to have him on filter in which case you shouldn't be bothered my him. It's a fairly childish response, tit-for-tat cross-board posting. Says something about how sharp an investor you are really likely to be and therefore how credible any theories you have on TLOU are likely to be. TLOU investors are being spoon fed a narrative. I'm guessing there is something below the water-line of ice-berg proportions that you are not seeing.

[donkey40] 08/8/2018 22:31

One of my all time favourite posts from him - “Good luck to anyone looking to buy serious volume into this beast in the next 4 weeks - tightly held and for appropriate reasons”

Value traded today on Tou was £57k; KMR £4.5m. Think I will check how many days back we need to go to add to £4.5m - like i say, he is just here for nonsense.