Kenmare Resources Share Discussion Threads

[idiodyssey] 16/10/2018 18:21

Isn’t the plan to be a key supplier to the plants in China that upgrade the product. Isn’t it what they do now? Shouldn’t they focus on core production and simply sell it to a processor (at a premium price)?

[donkey40] 16/10/2018 16:29

The verbal description of the Sales /Marketing slides is good, worth listening to. Bits of Operations also good; much though is well known.

Seems to me the next step is to start upgrading their own ilmenite product to ilmenite slag and synthetic rutile for use in chloride process. Where do they do that - I don’t see them investing the capital for this into a China based facility.

[donkey40] 16/10/2018 13:27

Horses for courses - they have a room full of people to entertain and make feel it was worth their time to attend. Whilst nothing much new, the real points will be what is said in discussion which hopefully we can pick up when listening.
All feedstock producers have been doing same as KMR - optimising and driving unit costs down down deeper and down.

[albo] 16/10/2018 12:58

I have also yet to listen to the recording.
I thought the presentation was way too long - and boring.
Nothing in there to grab attention.
Guidance generally on the lower side of previous ranges.
But, decent fall in cash costs of production.
Decent cash generation.
Good to see them confirming dividend outlook.

[donkey40] 16/10/2018 12:20

Have yet to listen the recording - thoughts are:
Presentation - generally good, clear informative but yet the message isn’t a difficult one to grasp.
Thought the Market Update slides were weak. No real detail on feedstock supply challenges (which could be a big + point of difference for KMR). And if China makes the switch to chloride production, their 2023 pigment capacity number will be smashed (ie will be much higher).
All in all, reassures the listeners that mgmt have a strong handle on what they are doing on site.

[murraybasin] 12/10/2018 18:17

Logic at work is refreshing to see.

[murraybasin] 12/10/2018 16:42

Does the CMD playbook demand some news Monday before the event?

[donkey40] 12/10/2018 14:58

Said before - options start vesting in 2019. So no major incentive from directors for share price to motor until then. With Yer-man, M&G and Capital the real owners here, all else is of little consequence. Especially crabid long term shareholders that got screwed before, reinvested and are still waiting for the party to start.
Our saving grace is only 109m shares in issue - if they choose to, future Capex easily sourced as equity. We have one major hurrah ahead of us in next couple years here I reckon. But I said that couple years back I reckon ....

[murraybasin] 12/10/2018 14:03

Visible directors buys are usually good for sentiment provided they are material. We haven't seen our latest NED joining the fold in that regard.

[caposoka] 12/10/2018 12:40

All valid points. Would the opinion change if salary was 100% cash followed by Dir. buy? Some need to see the wood for the trees...

[murraybasin] 12/10/2018 10:31

That fools opinion doesn't change the fact that the man had overwhelming support at the last AGM. Not sure if anyone noted yet but under KRSP he is also required to have 250% of salary (value) in company equity by ~ 2021.

[donkey40] 12/10/2018 08:18

Or maybe KMR could burn and roast the product up there, shipping it out via their own jetty. All the need is secure power to the facility - and Tlou Energy will soon solve that for them as ‘the most advanced CBM natural gas company in the region’
There you go - solved !!

Tidd, Buzz, Windy, Sats and all the lads will then love me.

[donkey40] 12/10/2018 01:07

Wah that Peace chappie sure has a dislike for KMR management. I thought the boss was drawing a $1.3m salary, not $1m. Still I agree with him - management are well overpaid for what they have been delivering. But then, kick them out and who want to work in north east Moz for weeks and months on end...
imagine if this mine was blended in with pigment producer, and the synergies they could draw out of the vertical supply chain. Matter of time I reckon ...

[donkey40] 11/10/2018 17:38

Interesting day’s trading - big down market, yet closed pretty flat. Suggests free float just being sucked up by someone.

[caposoka] 11/10/2018 16:50

Not really my field so can only speculate. Looks like the lenders are gradually reducing over time, keeping under the radar. Being shareholders, think it is fair to assume they act individually to suit individual needs. Couldn’t imagine them acting collectively on this. Indeed, at time of OO, lenders underwrote to varying degrees. Discussion over yonder is that lenders need to sell out to release upward share price momentum. Think this is back to front. share price needs to rise to trigger their exit point, (unless other factors prevail). The fact they are still on the books is more of a consequence than a cause.

We are back at OO levels and KMR a lot further forward since then. Plus, I like MB’s cup and handle idea, so I’ve happily added some more recently. Hoping Q3/CMD may encourage the ‘breakout̵7; with a retrace around 275-280 and then maybe onward. Again, speculative nonsense on my part and not to be taken at all seriously but if the rise occurs I’ll be grateful for the heads-up and if it doesn’t I will realise my folly!

[donkey40] 11/10/2018 15:23

Thanks Cap - interesting. I wonder how positions have moved in the interim. Pretty sure some Lender shares have moved since Majedie is the only regulated entity disclosing a change in % thresholds. And the volume of their selling is much less than sales volumes we saw traded through the market.
Am wondering if the Lenders shares are being sold proportionately or whether some of them have broken ranks and just want capital back.

[caposoka] 11/10/2018 10:58

Ignoring those below 3% - after Aug 2016 OO:
EIB 9,251,884 (8.84%)
EAIF 3,656,366 (3.34%)

As of 28 March 2018
(
EIB 7,839,031 (7.15%)
EAIF below 3%

[murraybasin] 11/10/2018 08:37

14,131,631 total.

hxxps://ir.euroinvestor.com/Solutions/Kenmare2018tf/3908/newsArticle.aspx?storyid=13419936

Don't recall seeing a breakdown.

[donkey40] 10/10/2018 23:27

Anyone know how many shares held by each of the Lenders at any point in time since the refinancing? Or how many shares in total the Lenders picked up post refinancing ?

[albo] 08/10/2018 12:11

OK.
Got it.
Thanks cap....

[caposoka] 08/10/2018 12:05

Albo,

Gross debt was Aug 2016 100M from time of capital raising, plus subsequent accrual of interest.

With planned debt repayments every 6 months from Feb 2018 of x7 9.5m, x1 11.1M and final x1 of 22.2M, at time of H1 results gross debt was 93M. Since being a further repayment in Aug 2018.

Cash raised in 2018 has since increased due to positive cashflow from operations. At end of H1, cash or equivalent was 84.2M, giving a net debt of 9.1M.

Cash generation is under the radar as KMR in a capex phase for at least the next 18 months or so. The CMD should outline the capex plans in more detail as well as updating on expected level of cash generation / availability for introduction of dividends.

[albo] 08/10/2018 11:12

Was looking at the financial position of these guys pre their CM day.
Headline debt is $9.3m but the last page of their recent presentation shows over $90m with the associated lenders. Any of you guys understand what the true debt is?

[donkey40] 05/10/2018 00:50

Interesting trade the 535/-
We still have not seen visibility on the 2m traded day a month ago....
wWho can it be now ...

[murraybasin] 05/10/2018 00:34

I see big-mouth small-brain still considers itself relevant. Hasn't grasped how long in the past and how irrelevant it is. Story has moved on. No comments on volume today and liquidity. Can't have you're cake and it eat too. Noone has stitched together any plausible story for movements over the last 12-16 weeks. They are all shooting blanks in the dark.