Kenmare Resources Share Discussion Threads

[ok,yah] 20/5/2014 10:48

something looks wrong falling so fast. Any thoughts? Placing on the way?

[sg31] 19/5/2014 21:32

They are taking their salaries and bonuses.

[ok,yah] 19/5/2014 15:16

If analysts are sellers, or have clients that are sellers it is of course in their interest to put out buy notes to help shift the stock, not that analysts would do that kind of thing..

[sorksandnorks] 19/5/2014 09:45

I wouldn't hold your breath donaferentes - there hasn't been an RNS this month and KMR's track record of keeping shareholders informed leaves a lot to be desired. But, hopefully, no news is good news and I'm still putting my faith in the 11 analysts who presumably have done their own research and are willing to promote the share price into the high 20s. If they are right a positive re-rating must be on the cards soon. Let's hope so - it really is time for a reversal of KMR's fortunes after many months of unrelenting decline.

[donaferentes] 17/5/2014 13:48

double average volume yesterday - must assume them to be sells given the direction of the share price who's leaving the party? might be an RSN out next week to tell us.

[sg31] 16/5/2014 15:38

I don't trust most analysts to be honest. Look at the reality, up to their eyeballs in debt and low commodity prices.

Some people say buy when there is blood on the street. Might be a good idea if the blood was that of the directors (figuratively of course) after they had fallen on their swords.

It might come good but it could also go bust or get taken out for a pittance.

[ok,yah] 16/5/2014 14:47

Analysts have their own agenda. Read what they say but do your own research

[sorksandnorks] 16/5/2014 13:39

Thanks sg31 but how does that square with smalltimer's link in 23031 in which 11 equity research analysts have recently (up to May 6th when the article in the link was published) given an average "Buy" rating with an average target price of 28.63p? See below:

"Four equities research analysts have rated the stock with a hold rating, six have given a buy rating and one has assigned a strong buy rating to the stock. The company currently has an average rating of "Buy" and an average target price of GBX 28.63 ($0.48)."

Are they all wrong?

[sorksandnorks] 16/5/2014 11:33

What on earth is going on with Kenmare?. They seem to be following a steady slide into the abyss. Yet their results were not too bad, their debt has been restructured to make life a little easier, they are coming to terms with their power problems, their output is increasing and their shares are getting strong buy-ratings. They should have bottomed out by now and started a steady climb but the exact reverse is happening. Anyone know why this is the case?

[smalltimer] 07/5/2014 16:02

www.mideasttime.com/westhouse-securities-reiterates-buy-rating-for-kenmare-resources-plc-kmr/134330/

[wexboy] 05/5/2014 00:35

Company: Kenmare Resources

Prior Post(s): 2012 & 2013

Ticker: KMR:LN

Price: GBP 13.25p

Kenmare's one of the few Irish resource stocks that's clawed its way up to producing status, so I derive no pleasure from the validation of my consistently bearish stock perspective. But perhaps Moma has always been a project too far...for a company with such humble origins. And for the risks involved, the company was ridiculously overvalued (back in 2011 & 2012, when the share price set a 60p+ double-top) – and now, of course, it's simply over-leveraged. Potential salvation lies with ramping up production asap – unfortunately, commodity prices have declined significantly, and now Kenmare basically lacks the financing to accelerate production. In fact, revenue's gone into reverse, declining over 40% in 2013 – while operating cash generation barely funded the company's interest bill.

An asset-based valuation remains the only logical approach to valuing Kenmare. I'll be kind & use the same in-the-ground prices as last year (approx. 10% of medium/long term average spot prices): A price of $18 per tonne for ilmenite looks spot on, the $100 price for rutile's mostly irrelevant, and a $133 price for zircon's generous considering recent grading & pricing. As usual, I'll assign a 50% haircut for probable reserves, and 75% for measured & indicated resources - here's the latest reserve/resource statement. [NB: As I understand it, the Namalope resources should be Indicated (not Inferred)]. To this we can add USD 68 million of cash, USD 363 M of debt, and an annual (free) cash flow burn of 81 M. [Virtually all capex - though it's not clear Kenmare will actually manage this kind of capex spend in 2014...]:

(USD 68 M Cash – 363 M Debt – 81 M Annual Cash Burn + 19.6 Mt Ilmenite * $18 + 0.4 Mt Rutile * $100 + 1.4 Mt Zircon * $133) / 1.6833 GBP/USD / 2,782 M Shares = GBP 4.3p

Kenmare remains substantially over-valued. The bigger problem might now be the financial stress/risk placed on the company – which is always difficult to handicap. In my experience, once the debt restructuring process begins, it tends to continue...and we've already seen a rescheduling of the company's debt repayments. It would be foolish of investors to assume Kenmare's lenders have infinite patience, or to hope KMR can somehow enjoy a debt write-down without severely impacting/diluting current equity holders. In fact, at this point in the cycle, lenders might actually be incentivized to swap their debt for the upside potential of equity – right-sizing the company's production & capital structure would position fresh equity nicely for an eventual commodity price rally. But hey, what do I know – the most likely course of action will probably be the good old junior resource stock standby: Management will bury their heads in the (mineral) sand, wait for the share price to totally collapse, and then they'll finally launch a massively dilutive placing...

Price Target: GBP 4.3p

Upside/(Downside): (67)%

[donaferentes] 26/4/2014 16:27

Only quoting what they say - no need to invest if you don't agree ! :)

[bh61] 26/4/2014 08:57

Dividends ? They are not breaking even yet and cannot afford the debt repayments hence 5 years to pay, it all depends on product prices.

[donaferentes] 25/4/2014 19:40

And they keep talking about dividends now the long-term debt position is sorted.

[sorksandnorks] 25/4/2014 15:26

The quarterly statement is not bad at all by Kenmare's standards - everything seems to be on the up. Let's hope the share price takes note and soon does the same. Having looked at the chart for the past 15 years or so I genuinely believe that a slow but steady climb in the share price is on the cards providing we can stay above the 12p level for a couple of weeks

After all we are hardly going to get anyone taking any profits given that we are not too far above our all-time low of 5p in April 1999 and our more recent low of 7.25p in December 2008. As long there are no skeletons in the cupboard and the power problems can be resolved (as the management claims they can) I believe that a return to 60p is quite possible in the next 36 months or so.

To those of you who have been with KMR as long as me(more than 10 years)- don't throw in the towel just yet! Keep the faith!

[salpara111] 24/4/2014 10:37

Production up, grade down but still dont know if they are currently profitable so I will wait for the next set of financials.

[piedro] 24/4/2014 10:33

Production stable for the last 9 months ...

[gretel1921] 24/4/2014 10:29

buying more

[nigthepig] 24/4/2014 08:27

Your timing seems pretty good gretel1921.

[donaferentes] 24/4/2014 08:08

report seems moderately good, subject to the usual commissioning difficulties of the dip doctor. they will miss these commissioning difficulties whenthey stop capex finally!

[gretel1921] 23/4/2014 23:23

Been watching this share for 5 years
and bought for the first time today
feeling the timing might be right.
Fingers crossed.