Kefi Gold And Copper Share Discussion Threads

[robjm66] 09/3/2020 00:21

Placing on 17th of December lots happened since then and a lot more can happen before 30th of April.

Price could bounce back this week as nothing much has changed just disastrous PR with the webinar ignore that and Hawiah still looking good and ANS money still expected.No suggestion anyone is getting cold feet in Ethiopia in fact ANS looking to put more money in.

With KSA Jibal Qutman could pop out of regulatory process the same way Hawiah did and would expect more results from Hawiah probably before the time the warrants run out.

[space_bob] 08/3/2020 23:50

I think we could see gold hit $2k much sooner than anyone is expecting. The markets are going to go into meltdown over the next 2 weeks. Problem is Kefi is nowhere near producing any gold, so expect another 20% drop in share price this week, possibly even tomorrow alone. Good luck.

[divmad] 08/3/2020 23:34

That makes it all the harder to bear, knowing that Harry doesn't understand the inner workings of Kefi's financing partner. Otherwise the warrant package would surely have been structured differently.

[hairyback2] 08/3/2020 12:27

IHIT (mustn't upset chopper)
HB

[robjm66] 08/3/2020 11:49

Depends on the news flow between now and then if ANS pay up and good progress in KSA as well should easily be higher than that. When they were coming up with the plan for the warrants they must have been expecting good progress over that timeframe.

[mab] 08/3/2020 11:40

Harry said there will be more share dilution on friday, edison expecting minimal. not sure how the non excercised 149m warrants will play out if the price is below 2p by end of april. might be another curveball in terms of more dilution...

"Note that a further US$10m equity contribution into Tulu Kapi is budgeted for KEFI, although this is intended to be funded from cash, a working capital facility being introduced and refunds on closing of full funding. It is expected to require minimal additional issues of shares of KEFI equity. Hence, for modelling purposes, we have assumed no more dilution than the 298m placing, settlement and remuneration shares (and 149m warrants) that have now been issued pursuant to KEFI’s announcement of 17 December."

hxxps://www.edisongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/KEFI-Minerals-Tulu-Kapi-project-started-and-financings-improved.pdf

[digger2779] 08/3/2020 11:38

rob - agreed on 1st question. Short and concise answer is all we require. Ok the word "expect" is in the question but that is the best anyone can hope for.
The gloom is slowly lifting.

[bejubiant] 08/3/2020 11:15

Project Funding: This is a senior debt piece and equity deal. “Full Close” requires both. The former is now a lesser amount due to the bank term debt carrying lower deal fees than the former arrangement.. which was priced on perceived risk at the time of offer.
The bank syndicated term debt/sheet is priced on a considerably improved risk profile, which shareholders should read as highly positive. Patience will be rewarded

[mab] 08/3/2020 11:05

Good concise summary from edison recent report. in contrast to harrys train wreck of a webinar lol..

As a result, so far in 2020, the following actions have taken place:

–Project equity closing has occurred with KEFI’s government sector partner and offsite development commenced.
–On 17 February 2020, KEFI announced that the Tulu Kapi Gold Mines Share Company (TKGM) general meeting approved that ANS Mining (KEFI’s private sector project partner) could proceed to closing its investment, so onsite development activities can commence.
–The project consortium action plan has been agreed and the local community, contractors and stakeholders have been asked to prepare for the commencement of project development.

[robjm66] 08/3/2020 11:03

Personally like the first question and its short to the point answer best

Q: Can you confirm that you still expect ANS to pay their first installment shortly - when all paperwork completed, not waiting until after the election in September?

A: Yes.

Last question maybe not representative of all views probably selected by the investor relations team (they got a team!) but ignoring the traders vs holders debate does get across the need for progress in the short term to “calm nerve's”.

[chopper harris1] 08/3/2020 10:44

Thanks for posting that, Outlaw, but did anyone else read the last question and also have suspicions of it possibly being a 'plant'?

After the debacle of the past couple of weeks, Harry must know that he's running out of places to hide and from where he can continue to kick the can further down the road in the hope, like Mr Micawber, that "something will turn up".

His already dented reputation, in the eyes of many of his shareholders and of the markets in general, has deteriorated further in recent days. He wants to hope and pray that, despite the smokescreen that continues to envelop this whole ANS funding issue, they cough up with their first tranche long before September.

And neiling, who the hell do you think you are to make the arrogant assumption that you know which posters on this thread are holders or non-holders?

[matthew stone] 08/3/2020 10:34

Agreed - in retrospect, it was never a good idea to broadcast something like this live in the last hour of the markets on a Friday, particularly in the current climate! Hopefully, calmer heads will prevail next week - if you take the webinar in conjunction with the q&as published since, nothing has actually changed for the worse; if anything, I am more convinced of the potential in Saudi, and (slightly) more reassured about the first ANS payment.

[robjm66] 08/3/2020 09:52

Thanks Outlaw and those who asked questions.

Think the webinar can be a valuable tool if done well harry does not have to do them all though. Where in this case the company is deluged and no way there is going to be time to answer all questions could be a prerecorded section or Answers on the website.

With too much detail people can get swamped in it and get annoyed when they just want a few simple answers to what they see are simple questions and any message the company wants to get across can get lost.

As for new shareholders and old Shareholders need both the old shareholders were new shareholders once and volatility can work both ways.

[matthew stone] 08/3/2020 09:22

Credit where credit is due - Friday was a disaster, but they have acted quickly to reassure investors. We have to hope this is a lesson learned, and that future communications will be less ambiguous..

[neilng] 08/3/2020 08:54

Thank you Outlaw.There are not many investors making reasonable comments on the Kefi bb and since I have all the non shareholders filtered I don't have to read them.Your feedback came as a nice surprise this morning confirming my own thoughts on the situation.Just need our spreadsheet wizard to come back and give us the numbers confirmation.I miss his comments.neilg

[robjm66] 07/3/2020 16:32

As for works last time they produced pictures looked like some gardeners out for a walk. Money wise getting a load of money from the IMF and some is supposed to be spent on the mining sector.

Fair enough money being coughed up in stages to save money and make sure its well spent just everyone would be happier to see the first tranche from ANS, then we are on the way.

Would give people some closure even if it was not full closure ;-)

[mab] 07/3/2020 16:31

And all private / public investors will receive 27% a year once production starts for 7 years on there investment. Which is not bad when money is losing 10% a year in eth :-) (8% int rates, 18% inflation)

[mab] 07/3/2020 16:24

Harry/kefi words:

Gov $20 mill..closed n being spent
ANS $9 mill..shortly - before oct
ANS $30 mill..around oct
Banks $100? mill..around oct

For now anyways :-)

[outlawinvestor] 07/3/2020 16:08

An optimistic (or perhaps head-in-the-sand) spin is that the full $38m represents "full close" and will be received shortly. The unconditional initial $9.5m will (obviously) be received before "full close".

If one links the last two Q&A answers and spray an optimistic mist around it:

Arrangements are proceeding for the closing of the first subscription funds from ANS to TKGM of US$9.5 million (Ethiopian Birr equivalent) in accordance with standard local procedures. As announced, the total ANS commitment is US$38 million with the first US$9.5 million (Ethiopian Birr equivalent) being unconditional and subsequent amounts in accordance with the conditions previously outlined.

The closing could not have already occurred but will occur shortly. The US$9.5M (equivalent in Ethiopian Birr) is to be received from ANS during the period before full close.

:-)

[space_bob] 07/3/2020 14:50

digger I agree and even then it will be a long time until Kefi is producing gold (which personally I don't think will ever happen). These small sums are vast sums in Ethiopia. And they can see the massively more vast funds that will be needed fairly soon. From some of the Gold stocks I hold, it seems to be 2-3 years into production that things start to stabilise but to get there often sees massive debt, royalty payments, massive hedging and massive dilution of stock. From there you can see fairly safe consistent growth. It's much safer to invest at that point.

[digger2779] 07/3/2020 14:22

Jaylett I thought the same. I've already asked them a question today about posting pictures of road construction and energy supply (if it's underway)?. I will leave it at that but perhaps someone can ask what they mean by the "during the period before full close." Perhaps something along the lines of "Your reply to the previous question concerning the ANS 1st tranche payment is still unclear as it implies they have any time between now and September to release those funds"
I think ANS are waiting for the banks to commit and the banks can't commit until they can see physical progress being made which would require funding from ANS. Chicken and egg and not a golden one either!

[mab] 07/3/2020 13:05

robjm66..cheers

the market can only price a company based on it's assets, cashflows and prospects. so untill big lumps of money start dropping into kefi's projects and progress starts to be made on the ground, maybe it's fairly priced for the risks for now. markets always right as the saying goes....

recent edison note has net assetts of $64 million once financings drop onto bottom line, so for a non producer average value say at 0.5 times assetts = valuation of £30 mill. the biggest and best gold producers priced at 2-3 times net assetts on average. always a chance that hawaih is 10 times what it is lol [as harry mused] so we all live in hope eh :-)

harrys old company atalaya mining on solid footing now, producing, making profit, cashed up and valued around harrys magic number £200 million. generally a dissapointment for a decade for investors but share price did treble as it went into production.

[jaylett] 07/3/2020 13:04

Has today's Q&A answer made things more or less clear? I'm bewildered. I started reading and thought "yes!" and then I got to the last part "during the period before full close." and once again the dreaded KEFI interpretation machine is required.

That's anytime from now until September then, as noted in the question? But the answer specifically said "that is not the message". WTF?

Why can they never just explain things in clear English?! It has to be deliberate to allow a get-out, because no one can be *that* incompetent...

..can they?