Kefi Gold And Copper Share Discussion Threads

[robjm66] 08/3/2020 09:52

Thanks Outlaw and those who asked questions.

Think the webinar can be a valuable tool if done well harry does not have to do them all though. Where in this case the company is deluged and no way there is going to be time to answer all questions could be a prerecorded section or Answers on the website.

With too much detail people can get swamped in it and get annoyed when they just want a few simple answers to what they see are simple questions and any message the company wants to get across can get lost.

As for new shareholders and old Shareholders need both the old shareholders were new shareholders once and volatility can work both ways.

[matthew stone] 08/3/2020 09:22

Credit where credit is due - Friday was a disaster, but they have acted quickly to reassure investors. We have to hope this is a lesson learned, and that future communications will be less ambiguous..

[neilng] 08/3/2020 08:54

Thank you Outlaw.There are not many investors making reasonable comments on the Kefi bb and since I have all the non shareholders filtered I don't have to read them.Your feedback came as a nice surprise this morning confirming my own thoughts on the situation.Just need our spreadsheet wizard to come back and give us the numbers confirmation.I miss his comments.neilg

[robjm66] 07/3/2020 16:32

As for works last time they produced pictures looked like some gardeners out for a walk. Money wise getting a load of money from the IMF and some is supposed to be spent on the mining sector.

Fair enough money being coughed up in stages to save money and make sure its well spent just everyone would be happier to see the first tranche from ANS, then we are on the way.

Would give people some closure even if it was not full closure ;-)

[mab] 07/3/2020 16:31

And all private / public investors will receive 27% a year once production starts for 7 years on there investment. Which is not bad when money is losing 10% a year in eth :-) (8% int rates, 18% inflation)

[mab] 07/3/2020 16:24

Harry/kefi words:

Gov $20 mill..closed n being spent
ANS $9 mill..shortly - before oct
ANS $30 mill..around oct
Banks $100? mill..around oct

For now anyways :-)

[outlawinvestor] 07/3/2020 16:08

An optimistic (or perhaps head-in-the-sand) spin is that the full $38m represents "full close" and will be received shortly. The unconditional initial $9.5m will (obviously) be received before "full close".

If one links the last two Q&A answers and spray an optimistic mist around it:

Arrangements are proceeding for the closing of the first subscription funds from ANS to TKGM of US$9.5 million (Ethiopian Birr equivalent) in accordance with standard local procedures. As announced, the total ANS commitment is US$38 million with the first US$9.5 million (Ethiopian Birr equivalent) being unconditional and subsequent amounts in accordance with the conditions previously outlined.

The closing could not have already occurred but will occur shortly. The US$9.5M (equivalent in Ethiopian Birr) is to be received from ANS during the period before full close.

:-)

[space_bob] 07/3/2020 14:50

digger I agree and even then it will be a long time until Kefi is producing gold (which personally I don't think will ever happen). These small sums are vast sums in Ethiopia. And they can see the massively more vast funds that will be needed fairly soon. From some of the Gold stocks I hold, it seems to be 2-3 years into production that things start to stabilise but to get there often sees massive debt, royalty payments, massive hedging and massive dilution of stock. From there you can see fairly safe consistent growth. It's much safer to invest at that point.

[digger2779] 07/3/2020 14:22

Jaylett I thought the same. I've already asked them a question today about posting pictures of road construction and energy supply (if it's underway)?. I will leave it at that but perhaps someone can ask what they mean by the "during the period before full close." Perhaps something along the lines of "Your reply to the previous question concerning the ANS 1st tranche payment is still unclear as it implies they have any time between now and September to release those funds"
I think ANS are waiting for the banks to commit and the banks can't commit until they can see physical progress being made which would require funding from ANS. Chicken and egg and not a golden one either!

[mab] 07/3/2020 13:05

robjm66..cheers

the market can only price a company based on it's assets, cashflows and prospects. so untill big lumps of money start dropping into kefi's projects and progress starts to be made on the ground, maybe it's fairly priced for the risks for now. markets always right as the saying goes....

recent edison note has net assetts of $64 million once financings drop onto bottom line, so for a non producer average value say at 0.5 times assetts = valuation of £30 mill. the biggest and best gold producers priced at 2-3 times net assetts on average. always a chance that hawaih is 10 times what it is lol [as harry mused] so we all live in hope eh :-)

harrys old company atalaya mining on solid footing now, producing, making profit, cashed up and valued around harrys magic number £200 million. generally a dissapointment for a decade for investors but share price did treble as it went into production.

[jaylett] 07/3/2020 13:04

Has today's Q&A answer made things more or less clear? I'm bewildered. I started reading and thought "yes!" and then I got to the last part "during the period before full close." and once again the dreaded KEFI interpretation machine is required.

That's anytime from now until September then, as noted in the question? But the answer specifically said "that is not the message". WTF?

Why can they never just explain things in clear English?! It has to be deliberate to allow a get-out, because no one can be *that* incompetent...

..can they?

[robjm66] 07/3/2020 12:26

Good post Mab.

[robjm66] 07/3/2020 12:17

Harry mentions now having two rigs in KSA and more news there over the next month or two.

Sounds like the worst case is it is the same or slightly better than TK the best a multiple of the worth, the kind of resource that is usually bought on line by the majors.

[aircomm] 07/3/2020 12:06

I think we will go above 2p this side of 30 April. But I think the delays due to the elections will mean a downward adjustment to the 2020 peaks(due to further dilution). KSA may prove a game changer, but some way further down the tracks.

[robjm66] 07/3/2020 11:41

Digger Well think Harry and kefi have been misleading at times to put it mildly but in this case they would probably argue they can only update the market to what they thought the case was at the time.

The moving of the election that the final closing was tied to was post RNS meant a lot of rejigging of things (think harry mentions this somewhere in the webinar).

The problem is if Harry gives a firm date and misses it due to a bit of unexpected red tape he is going to be jumped on if he does not give a firm date he will get jumped on being vague.

Think the March date is a compromise between expecting things to be finshed shortly while not wnating to get caught out agian by a last minute change.
Harry must be pulling his hair out as well had to deal with the whole thing changing to a more local private public partnership and the election being moved all recently.

Bob the new money is not for the present tranche but further investment actually suggests that they want to explore and exploit other areas as quickly as possible otherwise the would just wait for funds from their share of production out of TK.

[digger2779] 07/3/2020 11:34

space_bob - I certainly would like to see "hard evidence" in the form of roads and power lines being built.
Maybe they could post some pictures on the company website? I'm sure that wouldn't be too difficult if it's happening already lol.

[space_bob] 07/3/2020 11:10

digger, I get that a partnership was a precondition. But what they probably expected is cash for well connected ANS members with no contribution. Now it looks like ANS is using Kefis playbook by trying to tempt Ethiopian investors with promises of 25% returns. Anything but putting their hands in their own pockets.
All I ever see is can kicking. The elections are a weak excuse, but handy as it buys several months. After the election, no doubt it will be 'a change in the new governments priorities'.
If roads and power lines are being built, I'd love to see some photos. I think that hard evidence of anything would count for a lot, but expect the reality is they're 'in design and planning'.

[digger2779] 07/3/2020 11:08

rob - failure to communicate is putting it mildly. From the RNS of 30th Jan 2020 we have
KEFI Minerals (AIM: KEFI), the gold exploration and development company with projects in the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, is pleased to advise that in relation to the Company's Tulu Kapi Gold Project (the "Project") a General Meeting of Tulu Kapi Gold Mines Share Company ("TKGM") has been convened for 14 February 2020 (the "Meeting"), to formalise the final and procedural sign-off of all matters required for the release of funds from ANS Mining Share Company ("ANS Mining") to TKGM.

The subsequent transfer of the first funds from ANS Mining to TKGM is expected to occur following the Meeting. As previously announced, the total ANS Mining commitment is US$38 million with the first US$9.5 million (Ethiopian Birr equivalent) being unconditional and subsequent amounts in accordance with the conditions previously indicated.
Another play on words, especially intimating the release of funds following the Meeting. No mention of further notarization etc. Of course the funds are "expected" but when? Most people thought fairly soon after the meeting on 14th Feb.
Even today's answer on the website is open to interpretation. Why can't they put it down in simple English? ie. We meant 1st tranche is to be available on such and such date not "shortly". Muddied the waters again by referring to "during the period before full close" as this can still mean they have until 1 day before main funding to pay up.
I did ask for a straight answer yesterday but that question wasn't asked. Can't think why!

[digger2779] 07/3/2020 10:48

space bob - you are probably right re guarantee but I reckon Kefi were told from the start by EG that they cannot proceed without ANS involvement to ensure that these high ranking officials and EG benefit from the mine. We all know that governments worlwide are swayed by business leaders and ex ministers so EG won't be any different. It is after all their resource and don't care who extracts it as long as they get their cut.

[robjm66] 07/3/2020 10:34

The ANS paying in money bit hopefully soon.

From quarterly.

“execute all documentation, which is well advanced, for KEFI’s private sector equity partner ANS Mining Share Company (“ANS”);”

“In February 2020, TKGM shareholder meetings passed the requisite shareholder resolutions and associated draft shareholder agreements have been circulated. All consequential subscription and shareholder documents are in the process of review by Government departments and ANS syndicate members for execution by the TKGM partners during March.”
From website

Q: From the webinar that has just finished, it is easy to interpret that ANS will not provide any tranche of funding until September.

A: That is not the message. The closing could not have already occurred but will occur shortly. The US$9.5M (equivalent in Ethiopian Birr) is to be received from ANS during the period before full close.

Should have just said closing could not have occurred but will occur shortly rather than talk about full close again.

From Cool hand luke
“what we have here is a failure to communicate”

[scrappycat] 07/3/2020 10:33

As far as Kefi are concerned, it would seem they have fulfilled all the requirements demanded of them regarding registration for the funding. Since the first tranche has been classified as unconditional, it should be exactly that, and not affected by the elections at all. In other words, it could be paid anytime. From what I have gleaned from what has been said here regarding Harry's recent broadcast (I have not heard it), that is what the company believe also.

That said, who knows whether or not the EG/ANS will introduce an additional variance to the registration procedure. Not the company, for the EG/ANS are making the rules up as they go along. All we, and the company, can do is sit and await developments, but the delay does have implications for Kefi in terms of their cash reserves.

Just my thoughts, dyor.