Kbc Adv.Tech. Share Discussion Threads

[dasv] 04/2/2014 09:03

Simon - looks like at dare I say it, a falling knife now unless the share price can consolidate at 98. Could you post a daily ichimoku cloud chart of KBC this week? I'm guessing the share price is now through the cloud whilst the lagging line is entering support in the cloud.

[gargoyle2] 04/2/2014 07:08

Would be good to see Kestrel (or any other directors) buying more around these level. Kestrel last bought at the end of October at around 90p.

[bamboo2] 03/2/2014 16:37

Looking at the chart over the last two years, there is an inverse head and shoulders that performed almost perfectly in terms of the target.
Once this retrace bottoms out we should be able to get some idea of the possibility of the formation of a continuation pattern. Will keep watching.

[simon gordon] 03/2/2014 14:43

Yip, the CFO departing is causing the chart to break down, fundies will probably go on a buyers strike until they meet the new CFO and have confidence in their utterances, hopefully the newbie will be known in the City and credibility will be automatic rather than earned. It's probably put the story back six months. 100 day simple moving average has been the intermediate trend support since the Ecuadorian contract - c.102p. If price doesn't have a pop above 106p this afternoon it will have broken down through the roof of the historic gap. I will probably add if it gets to the 98p area. The only thing that will turn sentiment and create interest is some news on PS5, other than that, the story is now a zombie. Such a shame, but that's shares, one minute all looks rosy, then bam, something happens to change the narrative.

[bigdazzler] 03/2/2014 14:14

This share looks very bearish and breaking down on heavy volume. Some of the weekly technicals look very weak and bearish. I expect a test of support of 98pence soon and if this fails a further fall to another support of around 92 pence which wouldnt be to far off the 200 day moving average by the time I expect price would be at this point.

All in my opinion of course

[cestnous] 03/2/2014 10:42

Recovering nicely now.

[prestigen] 03/2/2014 10:00

Couldn't resist a top up here. Just re-read their trading update and you can't really argue with trading ahead of expectations. Not ideal FD leaving, but as already pointed out, it's not a KBC related departure, just her normal cycle of working. PBT will be circa £6.5m for the year (if not more) against a MCAP of approx £65m, so 10x, not inc over £5m in cash! Cheap; especially for an exciting company in an improving market place. Results next month so share price should run up nicely from here. Plus, as soon as the new FD is announced, which cant be too far away, the market reaction will be positive and the share price will rise further. All good news imo.

[dasv] 03/2/2014 09:32

Re: FD - seems to me her average tenure at previous positions was short. Therefore her departure is about her not KBC.

According to those forecasts - 2014 PE of 12?

[apad] 02/2/2014 09:13

SG,
I'm not that heavily exposed (1.1% of portfolio at 75p), so have no health worries.
However, I am getting twitchy. If Kestrel hadn't been buying so prolifically last year I suspect I would be out by now - Scott is a founder, but there might be something we don't know (I got bitten by Independent Insurance).
I am presuming that they will toot the trumpet when they get their first PS5 order(s) - month and a half since launch.
apad

[apad] 02/2/2014 09:13

SG,
I'm not that heavily exposed (1.1% of portfolio at 75p), so have no health worries.
However, I am getting twitchy. If Kestrel hadn't been buying so prolifically last year I suspect I would be out by now - Scott is a founder, but there might be something we don't know (I got bitten by Independent Insurance).
I am presuming that they will toot the trumpet when they get their first PS5 order(s) - month and a half since launch.
apad

[simon gordon] 01/2/2014 21:38

APAD,

Don't hit me with a malpractice lawsuit if any of it turns out to be codswallop, you lose a packet and have a heart attack!

[apad] 01/2/2014 20:36

SG
Hope your medical diagnosis is correct:-)
Thanks for the research.
apad

[simon gordon] 01/2/2014 17:01

Aspen Tech released their Q2 earnings result last Thursday. The conference call focused quite heavily on the energy vertical and that they had hired an industry veteran from Honeywell to be Vice President of Global Sales.



Current p/e - 78.5x*

Share was up 10% on the update.

Market Cap. - $4.24b*

*According to Yahoo Finance.

I think Energy is their smallest vertical, I can't find the figures for how much it makes up of their total revenue, it's not broken down in their statements.

I asked Cenkos if they were planning to issue a detailed note on KBC and the move into the mid and upstream with Petro Sim 5, and the answer was they would but later in the year.

[simon gordon] 01/2/2014 12:13

A dream appointment, as the new CFO, would be the current Deputy Chairman, he's only 49 years old:

Paul Taylor

Deputy Chairman and Independent Non-Executive Director

Mr Taylor is a Non-Executive Director and Chairman of the Audit Committees of Anite plc, Ubisense Group plc, Escher Group Holdings plc and Digital Barriers plc. From 2001 to 2011 he was Group Finance Director with AVEVA Group plc. Mr Taylor is a Fellow of the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants. He was appointed a Non-Executive Director of KBC in May 2013 and Deputy Chairman in October 2013. He is Chairman of the Audit Committee and a member of the Nomination and Remuneration Committees. He is also the Senior Independent Director.

----

He's got a record second to none.

Maybe KBC now want a more commercially minded CFO, as they push for growth after the heavy restructuring? Gonna be interesting to see who is appointed.

[simon gordon] 31/1/2014 17:18

APAD,

I have heard that she has improved the tax issue and is staying to sign off the 2013 accounts. I have been told there are no nasties. 2013 and 2014 EPS forecasts have been upgraded. If I find out the 2014 tax rate and expected balance sheet I will post it.

It's never good news when an FD leaves suddenly because it creates a lot of uncertainty. I'm confident they'll get through it pretty quickly. Just takes some of the gloss of the story. It's a bruise not a break!

"The Board would like to thank Caroline for her significant contribution to the progress KBC has made during her time with the Company, which has included a strong improvement in trading, a swift and effective cost restructuring exercise, a large-scale investment in KBC's fiscal and operating structure and enhanced investor relations. We wish Caroline every success in the future."

[simon gordon] 31/1/2014 17:08

Bookbroker,

I'll post what I want to post, if you don't like it, well, that's tough.

KBC have a dysfunctional board:

~No Non-Exec Chairman
~No CEO
~No CFO
~Short two Non-Execs
*Ian Godden is the CEO and Chairman = Executive Chairman.

Momentum in the story, share price, has been knocked. I bought into this story because a new dynamic management team had kicked out the old ones and new software was being developed. They still haven't got the management team sorted out after nearly two years. I don't like it, so I'll post about it. If you don't like it, go and start another KBC thread then you won't need to read my musings, simples!

[apad] 31/1/2014 17:06

Reminder:
it was the last FD that lost control of the consultancy budget.
I don't share your view about the influence of hot-shot, fly-by-night management types SG.
Given the record and the tax bill issues I find this news disturbing.
Order news needed, indeed.
apad

[bookbroker] 31/1/2014 16:45

Sod her, now she's made her mind up you can stop rabbiting on about her as though she was the future of the co., she was only the bloody FD., I'm sure her valuable opinion was very much taken into account and appreciated but the co. will survive without her, clearly she has found a higher position, so be it, KBC I'm sure will find an good enough replacement, more concerned about the uncertainty it creates but the rest of the management seem more than up to the job, we're talking about a relatively small co. here so the transition should be pretty smooth, she's probably worrying about her body clock ticking away!

[simon gordon] 31/1/2014 13:55

Cenkos Forecast - 31/1/14:

2013 - 7.5p

2014 - 8.1p

Hopefully, some PS5 orders and upgrades could manifest during 2014.

Just a pity about Caroline Brown, like losing a quality midfield player. The new CFO probably won't do the rounds in the City until the Interims in September.

It looks like she was fired, otherwise you'd think she'd do the Innovators and Investors Forum if it was amicable.

[simon gordon] 30/1/2014 18:21

bamboo,

Yes, but in a downtrend. So not really a signal. Candles are best as reversal indicators at swing tops and bottoms. Best sign today was the candle wick which shows buying from around 110p.

This is the best book I've come across on Candles:



Best way to get them in your brain is to draw them out and label them a couple of hundred times.

They are fantastic once you get into them, addictive, the morse code of the stock market.

[bamboo2] 30/1/2014 17:59

simon, Is it also a bearish engulfing candle day today?

[simon gordon] 30/1/2014 17:13

BTW - Caroline Brown has pulled out of the Innovators and Investors Forum on Monday.

=====

Look to be heading into the cloud for support, and to consolidate.

Support levels after the daily cloud: top of historic gap and then down to 98p area.

If either ST or NT put out a sell it could have a nasty spike down.

[simon gordon] 30/1/2014 15:06

Market hates uncertainty: CFO leaving and newbie on the way.

I can see why they selected Caroline Brown, she dazzles you, has star power and a razor sharp mind. She had a chance with KBC to make a bigger name for herself in the City. It's a swine for holders as it's the first big negative since the Ecuador contract in December 2012. No doubt KBC will quickly (Q2 2014) get past this issue but, for now (Q1), it's changed the momentum of the story.

[prestigen] 30/1/2014 14:50

Really can't see it getting back to £1 myself, especially when the business is performing ahead of expectations. I suspect some profit taking and buys will pour back in when they've gone. It opened 120p so that's what the market felt it was worth in the am and nothing has changed since!