Kaz Minerals Share Discussion Threads

[racg] 04/7/2016 14:48

It certainly is - immediately after you said it. Perhaps you better say it s shooting to the sky or something, mmm.

[heliweli] 04/7/2016 12:26

Lagging the rest of the pack here.

[racg] 01/7/2016 18:05

Yeah but.....

Guess we just gonna have to carry on waiting.

[dinky00] 01/7/2016 13:27

KAZ Minerals are at the beginning of a process of expansion that will lead to the eventual fivefold increase of profits, and significant reduction of debt - the major noose currently around its neck, and reason for discounted valuation.
KAZ sees copper output growth of over 50%/yr to ’18. Evidence of successful execution of expansion plans so far saw the share price rally almost 150% from 80p lows in November to 197p in April. However, the share price somehow finds itself back in the 120's again, I believe being in the FTSE250 meant it saw some Brexit selling - which is silly for a company that has no UK exposure. In fact I would've expected a rally in KAZ as their shares are now ~10% cheaper in non-GBP terms based on Brexit currency moves alone. Its $760m mkt cap and $2.4bn debt obviously tells you this investment is not without risks. But so far so good for KAZ as their updates have shown, and recent weakness is overdone and presents a great entry level in my opinion.

COPPER PRODUCTION:
2015: 80,000 tons, 2016(f): 130,000-155,000 tons, 2018(f): 300,000 tons

EBITDA:
2015: $202m, 2016(f): $250m, 2017(f): $550m, 2018(f): $785m, 2019(f) $1.26BN

2015 Revenue Breakdown
Copper 70%, Zinc 15%, Silver 7%, Gold 6%

Ebitda Margin 30% in 2015, expected to increase in 2016 on Production Growth and lower costs (Management stated in May cash costs would be $2-$2.20 vs $2.30 in 2015). Weak Kazakh currency (Tenge) also helps, half of its costs are in local currency which fell 20% in 2015, and sales are in dollars.
Kaz Minerals' copper concentrate is also attractive to China's smelters given its high-sulphur content with low or no deleterious components.

Analysts: Avg.Px Tgt: 153p
Canacord worried about debt ($2.4bn), PT 120p......current px 127p
BofAML say execution risks are falling following Bozshakol project launch in February, financing risks manageable, PT 300p

Next Update: July 28.....Q2 Production
Aug 18.....H1 Results

[smurfy2001] 29/6/2016 19:58

same with ved

[racg] 29/6/2016 17:37

Typical of Kaz not to join the rally by miners. I think confirmation, if it comes, of the debt repayments being pushed out is really really needed before we get any serious lift. Come on sort it out BOD.

[mr woodentop] 27/6/2016 13:14

Thought as much. Oh well, I'll see if i can find some money to top up with!

[racg] 27/6/2016 12:54

Risk off I guess. But seeing as it has no GBP income or expenses, is based outside the UK and has income in US Dollars I think it is ridiculous.

[mr woodentop] 27/6/2016 12:34

Anyone care to tell me why KAZ is dropping like it is? How is this an effect of Brexit or is it something else?

[racg] 20/6/2016 18:51

Never does. Though does occasionally explode leaving others for dust. Fingers crossed the 2nd quarter figures are good and we have some reassurance about kicking the debt repayments further out.

And oh, if copper could gain 20% then I think we should be set fair.

[themoreiwantyou] 20/6/2016 11:37

KAZ don't seem to be keeping up with others in the sector

[plastow] 09/6/2016 08:20

Well that's better kaz was lagging on the back of the Dow silver and gold

[plastow] 16/5/2016 11:00

Nice hammer off around 143 slight resistance at 168 ish and hopefully retest a new high 210 with the European vote coming up I'm expecting gold silver etc in increase time will tell?? ?

[kazz] 16/5/2016 07:30

Spot on with the 143 prediction Plastow.
Let's hope you are right about the uptrend continuing.
Regards.... Kazz.

[plastow] 10/5/2016 17:34

Just looked at the ta the macd has leveled off which is a good indication to pick a few up expecting the upward trend to continue soon mays normally as a bad month....

[plastow] 04/5/2016 11:38

Another low volume sell off so no panicking!!

[plastow] 04/5/2016 11:08

I've got the Dow to hit around 17500 as a retest before the next upward trend??

[plastow] 03/5/2016 15:39

Ok time to drip feed quite a low volume sell off.. this might drop to 143 but happy to pick a few up at 160 to 140 over the next week!!!!

[mr woodentop] 28/4/2016 09:47

Net debt and cash position

Net debt increased to $2,425 million at 31 March 2016 from $2,253 million at 31 December 2015 as the Group continued to invest in the development of the Bozshakol and Aktogay projects and as interest payments of $79 million were made under the Group debt facilities. In addition, there was a mineral extraction tax payment of $22 million of which $10 million related to Bozshakol.

At 31 March 2016, gross debt (before amortised fees) was $3,572 million compared to $3,548 million at 31 December 2015, following the drawing of $150 million under the China Development Bank ('CDB') Aktogay facility and principal repayments of $29 million, $91 million and $6 million under the pre-export finance facility, the CDB Bozshakol/Bozymchak facilities and the CDB Aktogay CNY facility respectively. Of the gross debt (before amortised fees) at 31 March 2016 $1,813 million related to the CDB Bozshakol/Bozymchak facilities, $1,389 million related to the CDB Aktogay facilities, $320 million related to the PXF facility and $50 million to the revolving credit facility with Caterpillar Financial Services (UK) Limited. At 31 March 2016, $100 million remains available for drawing under the CDB USD Aktogay facility.

[lab305] 28/4/2016 07:47

Debt up again despite production and sales. Anyone know why ?

[plastow] 25/4/2016 15:32

Healthy pull back as expected

[bigbigdave] 23/4/2016 16:36

Chart is saying £2.50 to me just on the symmetry of it.

[brucie5] 23/4/2016 14:56

1.90 is the six month resistance here. Don't know enough about copper scarcity/demand to tell how/why this might take off, except, as Plastow says, the rising tide which lifts all boats. In 5 years it's fallen from 1400 to .70, which is a factor of 20. At it's peak it spiked to 1900.

200 was the 2008/9 low, incidentally, after which it rose 8 fold to 1600.

[plastow] 23/4/2016 14:44

slightly changing my mind gold and silver are breaking out off the down trend which in affect will really help all miners ???

[racg] 22/4/2016 15:48

Mmmm, I m assuming £2.50 is now a given in reasonable shrift.