Kalahari Minerals Share Discussion Threads

[red ninja] 17/3/2011 21:54

Tebbin,

That sounds like good news, but I would not be suprised if politicians go slow with nuclear for the next few months.

Stu31,

Yes if I was the Chinese guy in control I'd want to cut my bid not least because the prospect for nuclear are more uncertain that a week ago.

Krakow

Well a £2.90 bid would I believe succeed now.

Face it the future is less certain than it was just 1 week ago.

The British will do more safety studies which will delay our Nuclear programme.

The Swiss and Germans who knows what they'll do.

The Japanese may resume their new nuclear programme if there are few long term bad effects, but I wouldn't bet on it.

The Chinese will probably do more studies and resume.
The Indians also ?

Anyway there is more doubt in the short to medium term and extending time lines even if programmes are successfully resumed

That said if not nuclear what ?

[krakow] 17/3/2011 21:21

The thing is, even 290p is way too cheap, tsunami or no tsunami.

[cootuk] 17/3/2011 20:47

If they revise the bid too low then the Board won't recommend it.
The Board will be expending a lot of energy with them for due diligence and won't like being messed around. Better to bring in another financing partner than sell out too low.

[stu31] 17/3/2011 19:10

well in the interests of balance on this board it is fair to say that the chances of a bid being tabled at 2.90 are slim..firstly look what happened at Mantra..second look at the KAH share price..those in the know are not very confident are they..of course the Chinese are going to cite a material change..who wouldn't..no-one wants to pay more than they have to for anything

[cootuk] 17/3/2011 18:14

Politicians may spout the popular momentum of the moment, but none of the ones in power would want to see rolling power cuts because they shut all the nukes. Slowly they will all declare minor improvements and back to business as usual.

[tebbin] 17/3/2011 18:01

Red Ninja......

It looks as though the media have had enough of the Japanese story.....In todays Telegraph is an article informing that Obama and the USA are to progress with their Nuclear Power programme.. This and other articles should lead to a retrace to the position prior to the dreadful events in Japan...I think the world will move on and in the medium time support Japan in its restructuring..

The Chinese company will still be interested in purchasing KAH and MH will be intersted in holding them to their original offer.......

[red ninja] 17/3/2011 16:32

Mmm its all a bit of a gamble, but I got back in to KAH in my SIPP.

This could still be a roller coaster for the next few days ... who knows when the Japenese will get those reactor back under control.

I addition some of these suspensions of reactors could be long term. I mean will the Japanese ever approve another reactor, they are not going to forget this in a hurry.

[gnevans] 17/3/2011 16:15

no bid for extract and the chines can apply for an exemption (although the likelihood is a bid for extract if the bid goes ahead for kalahari )

[hyper al] 17/3/2011 15:56

stu31

I thought we may have dropped more this morning (after Extracts drop), but I didn't want to say that at the time!

[stu31] 17/3/2011 15:51

it's a lot cheaper to buy extract at $6.50 than KAH at £2..

[gnevans] 17/3/2011 12:53

I also have 11 years till I'm 55 and can take my pension, as I say this could go down a lot further, if it did then I would buy more now got 179,000 and happy to take a short term bid or play a long game.

[kimball808] 17/3/2011 12:46

Per Bloomberg - Power cable connected to reactor 4...

edit, to the plant as a whole
edit, not connected, working on getting it connected, hopefully by end of day...

[gardenarc] 17/3/2011 12:30

Bet gnevans is not a new investor i bet he has been doing share ivesting a fir few years dasv..

[dasv] 17/3/2011 12:26

you got balls gnevans. Certainly bigger than mine.

[gardenarc] 17/3/2011 11:59

ONE WORD TO SAY I THINK THIS ONES CHEAP..

[gnevans] 17/3/2011 11:10

bought another 39,000 at 2.04p either the chines go ahead with the bid or we get a jv or offer from rio...or the reactor blows up and it goes to a pound and I buy more for the long term.

I hope this resolves with no more loss of life.

[mdchand] 17/3/2011 11:05

Guys - summary of a big broker note issued today by BGF Equities.

Media hype creates buying opportunities for rational investors

Investment Perspective: The real disaster with the Japanese incidents at the Fukushima nuclear power stations is the media beat-up. Every day there are ill-informed and misleading statements that feed the paranoia of the public. There are two realities. The first is the technical condition of the reactors, which is being successfully managed with respect to public safety, even though they will become inoperable. The second reality is the power of the media to create panic and fear in the minds of investors. The stock market is the ultimate outlet for emotional reactions, and we saw this with a savage sell down of the uranium sector this week. This is a speed bump to the aspirations of nuclear power, not a termination of the growth phase.

Expect price range of US$55-75/lb

• We have moderated our expected trading range for 2011, to US$55-75/lb, to
account for some short term weakness. Estimates in this report use US$60/lb.

Impact on demand for uranium and nuclear power

• There is no way that China will be changing its plans because of the
Fukushima incident. It is too far down the road and it has no acceptable
alternatives. China is the most important country driving the demand for
nuclear power, so the revival remains in tact.

• Democratic countries need to give lip service to public concerns arising from
events this week. That is understandable. They will review existing plants and
make provisions for improved standards if necessary. They may retire older
plants earlier rather than extend their lives, but they will embrace the new
designs as replacements. There is no alternative - or the lights will go out

Remember that Fukushima was using old technology

• The Fukushima reactors are amongst the oldest in service, at approximately 40
years of age. The problems being experienced would not occur with the latest
generation, which have passive safety devices that donʼt require external
power. Why stop an industry because of old technology when we should be
embracing the new, safer and more efficient designs?

Chinese demand is uranium supply constrained

• Officially, China wants 5% of power to come from nuclear sources by 2020, but
there has been discussion of increasing this to 7% in the next Plan. This would
lift the target from 80 GW to 112 GW and require another 7,000 tpa of U3O8.
Consider current mine supply is only 60,000 tpa U3O8 now. The only obstacle
to increasing nuclear powerʼs role in China is the availability of uranium.
Corporate activity continues to feature

• The approach on Kalahari Minerals is confirmation that China is seeking as
much uranium as it can get. Kalahari, through its holding in Extract Resources,
has the potential to control 10% of the world uranium trade. If China gets
control of this, it will pursue nuclear power with even greater gusto.

How many people die from coal each year?

• Before we get carried away with the danger of nuclear power, stop and think
how many deaths there are in coal mining and how many die from respiratory
diseases due to thermal power station pollution. Where is the media coverage?

In summary, buy now if your brave, but defintely buy once Japan has cooled those reactors down.

[krakow] 17/3/2011 10:16

I agree, once Japan is off the front pages people will get amnesia. They always do. The Chinese are just engaged in some PR work at present but they know the answer to their energy needs is not fossil fuels or windmills.

[888icb] 17/3/2011 10:00

Head of OECD on Radio 4 Today programme said that despite the problems in Japan regarding a very unusual set of circumstances, nuclear power has a vital role to play in world energy supply. We will learn from the Japanese situation which is a one in 10000 year combination of factors involving a major natural disaster.
I agree its not much comfort at the present time to the Japanese people but I suspect the guy is right as the world moves forward.

[tebbin] 17/3/2011 09:06

Hyper AL

I think the BOD's of EXT/KAH in light of the situation they find themselves in, should grab the initiative and state they are only interested in Z1 & Z2 either being owned by others or a JV.

This will give them a much better bargaining position....

[hyper al] 17/3/2011 08:53

Long term these must be a winner, but over the next 6 months or so, I now doubt it.

[velvetide] 17/3/2011 08:48

thinking the same I've put 5% of my portfolio in U assets this morning, will take to 10% on further 25% - 50 % falls, I just ask myself what is the alternative and with my somewhat limited knowledge I dont come up with anything that addresses the need and greed for energy...unless we go back to caves..dont build on tectonic faults I guess

[zangdook] 17/3/2011 08:47

Yes, I think this calls for a 'we know no reason' RNS - though they'd have to say that as far as they know the Chinese bid is still on.

I wonder where we would be now if the Chinese had not made their approach. Probably above where we are now.