Just Share Discussion Threads

[cantrememberthis2] 04/4/2019 18:38

Already in and already up ;)
80p return awaits for me. TAntrum it was IMO.

[bolador] 04/4/2019 17:04

The share price has been steady this week, at last.Today volume is 54 million plus, end of a big line of stock ? Time to get in perhaps ?

[ramridge] 04/4/2019 14:29

JUST's Price/ Tangible Book Value (P/TBV) of 0.4 is way low compared to competitors.

The nearest values of some rivals are
Aviva 1.46
RSA 1.7
Chesnara 1.7

The share price has fallen over 40% since the start of 2019.

It looks very good value at the moment.

[scrapheap] 04/4/2019 14:12

JPMORGAN UPGRADES 'MORE BALANCED' JUST GROUP
(Sharecast News) - Analysts at JPMorgan Cazenove upgraded financial services firm Just Group to 'hold' on Wednesday, noting that the intrinsic value of the company's back book suggested a "more balanced" risk/reward scenario.
JPMorgan centred its previous 'underweight' thesis on four key factors - Just Group's limited balance sheet flexibility to absorb macro stresses, its higher debt leverage following the firm's recent issuance of debt capital, lower volume and margin guidance and an "unattractive" dividend yield.

However, Just's year-to-date underperformance of 50% relative to the insurance sector prompted analysts at JPMorgan to look at the downside potential.

To assess that, JPMorgan focused on looking at the intrinsic value of the back book, arriving at a base case value of £640m for the book at the end of its investigation - a figure higher than the group's current market cap of £611.

"Thus, we see limited downside risk to current share price and move our rating to 'neutral'," said analyst Ashik Musaddi.

"Looking at the DCF of the back book (i.e. business written as of date), we get to back book valuation of £1.1bn which is a discounted figure for capital run off and back book spread earnings."

JPMorgan, which reduced its 2019 EPS estimates for Just Group to 9.87p due to incorporating increased finance cost in its model, also adjusted its price target on the firm from 86p to 78p.

"We value Just Group's shares at Dec-19 PT of 78p using unlevered PE multiple of 9x and deducting debt at face value. Given Just Group has high leverage to macro risk and relatively weaker capital position we believe that a high cost of equity is justified in valuing Just Group."

[cantrememberthis2] 02/4/2019 16:55

Bounced off sub 58p a day ago and today...
Boom coming.

[cantrememberthis2] 02/4/2019 16:20

Smithless wicked post by you...bang on dude...

[smithless] 02/4/2019 15:50

If nothing has changed since the placing (insiders would have been given details of the prelims before the placing) the probable reason for the fall is an institutional investor/s who didn't take part selling down in a weak market. Those who took part in the placing have enough already and retail market unable to cope with supply. What a mess and rather bad selling by whoever it is.

[cantrememberthis2] 02/4/2019 14:15

Those under the 0.5% are operating here IMO.
Placing IIs wouldnt be selling their recent 80p investments... this is so common on large stocks... AT trades 316, 314 = consistent pattern.

When it switches we will all know it.

[mount teide] 02/4/2019 14:13

Short position according to Euroclear's last report was 2.96% with the last notifiable position dropping under the 0.5% reporting threshold on the 18th March.

[cantrememberthis2] 02/4/2019 13:54

Whatever we all think, you cannot and will not ever beat the Bots or Algo Traders...

Yes there are sellers, but for every seller there is a buyer otherwise you wouldnt be able to sell.... Brokers are collecting for any legs up.

Remember they can stay in a position far longer than you can stay rational.

[lovat scout] 02/4/2019 12:54

If anyone is going to the AGM and the share price is still languishing, it may be worth asking the question why the company’s operating assets aren’t up for sale and the book of business hasn’t been put into run off with 6 monthly tenders for shareholders. There’s probably a decent annuity there.

AIMHO etc.

[chucko1] 02/4/2019 12:35

HE, can you explain the comment “selling irrespective of price”. I’m not disagreeing, it’s just that I am unaware of exactly what they have done as I have not followed this stock so closely recently. Thanks.

[horndean eagle] 02/4/2019 12:17

Long and very wrong so far. Its pretty clear management have misled investors. Why else would they be selling irrespective of price. They have zero credibility hence share price trading at less than 40% of book. Whether you believe that book value is up for debate after recent events.

[cantrememberthis2] 01/4/2019 16:53

Says Mr Positive...

Horndean Eagle - 14 Mar 2019 - 10:16:56 - 827 of 877 JUST retirement new thread - JUST
Looks like a bit of an over reaction but management haven't covered themselves in glory here. Should bounce later. Agree with other comments that you might see some m&a interest now that the capital position is clearer.

[cantrememberthis2] 01/4/2019 16:51

DISAGREE Dude,

Peeps like you forget its better to remain under the radar of 0.5% so to get peeps to panic and sell...

Been there done that and game on.

GLA

[horndean eagle] 01/4/2019 16:23

The Short argument is a load of BS. Short interest has totally disappeared and I don't believe anyone is currently holding a short of notifiable size. Its simply holders feeling totally legged over by incompetent and possibly deceitful management. That would explain why the selling is so relentless.

[cantrememberthis2] 01/4/2019 11:17

Look at SPI, CPI to work out how Shorts control stocks...

In particular focus your eye on PETS

These were destroyed beyond their intrinsic values and people were crying bust bust bust....
Hence here they have RECAPITALISED and now have cash in the bank.

Yes their project revenue is 30% less, yes Dividend is less but they have stabilised the books IMO.


Its a case of the longer it stays here the better....

Look at FOOT, taken sub 30p hung around here for ages and boom, smart money was already in...

No different IMO

[scrapheap] 01/4/2019 11:13

If anyone was going to take out Just... this would seem to be the time.. the longer nothing happens the more worried I am there's more losses to come as they seemingly lower their crazy house price increase assumptions.

[salpara111] 01/4/2019 09:14

If it continues to fall at this rate it will end up getting relegated from the FTSE 350 at the next reshuffle.
It would seem that the big guys who took up the rights are not interested in holding onto them.
Still on my watch list but not biting until I see a clear trend reversal.

[cantrememberthis2] 31/3/2019 10:14

Is JUST FOR SALE?Today 09:52Taken from interim transcript...
RC: Well, let me do the strategic options. Of course, I met with fifty investors after the interims and a
number of them said, ‘Is your company for sale?’ We are listed on the stock market, of course, our
company is for sale. The important thing that we undertook from that point on, and we still do, is if
our company is for sale that we maximise the price and the value for our shareholders. The capital
actions that we’re taking today and the discussions with our major shareholders, say, this stabilises
our position, gives us the capital strength to show to anyone in the market that we are an ongoing
strong new business franchise, its attractiveness has been increased by these capital steps, not
diminished. But we’re not asking for strategic options, this capital gives us a strong foundation to
remain as an independent business, and the market will be the market.

[cantrememberthis2] 28/3/2019 10:57

Is Just Group a takeover target after share sell-off?

www.sharesmagazine.co.uk

Cost of bond issue and shareholder dilution didn’t go down well
On 14 March retirement solutions firm Just Group (JUST) caught the market by surprise when along with its full year earnings it slipped out the news that is was raising £375m in new capital. The shares shed 12% to 85.3p on the day.
On 25 March it announced that the capital raise, consisting of £75m of new shares and £300m of Tier 1 bonds, was complete and it was back to business as usual.
Instead of rejoicing, however, investors have continued to sell the shares down to 66.75p.

Just Group needed to raise capital after the Prudential Regulatory Authority (PRA), a financial regulator, suggested last year that the insurance industry should account for equity-release mortgages more conservatively and put aside more reserves.
The £300m of bonds qualify as regulatory capital under the Bank of England’s Solvency II regulations which strengthens the firm’s previously tight balance sheet, but as chief executive Rodney Cook admits this new capital ‘has come at a cost’.
EXPENSIVE DEBT
The bonds pay an annual interest rate of 9.375% — nice if you can get it when UK Government bonds are yielding just 1% but not so nice if you are Just Group and have to fork out the interest every six months.
With the firm re-capitalised and the shares at their lowest price for 10 years, analysts have taken note.
The consensus is that the stock deserves to re-rate to a higher multiple of earnings, despite the fact that for the next few years earnings are going to be at least 30% lower than previous forecasts.
Despite future regulatory uncertainty and the impact to earnings from the capital raise, which could affect the group’s interest cover and therefore its credit rating, analyst Barrie Cornes at Panmure Gordon goes a step further and suggests that a trade buyer is likely to swoop because the shares have fallen too far.
While Just Group shares have fallen a long way and may be cheap on some metrics, without some kind of catalyst they are likely to stay cheap. And if a trade buyer is interested, it is unlikely they will pay much of a premium.

[cantrememberthis2] 26/3/2019 20:52

He shall reply in due course.

As for share price, manipulation :)

Keep the ship steady lads... the lower it goes the more ill add.

[topvest] 26/3/2019 19:59

It seems to me that management are being incorrectly incentivised on headline profits. They need to be incentivised in a totally different way, as we are bearing the pain for their exuberance and lack of prudence.