Just Share Discussion Threads

[dasv] 12/9/2018 11:39

BTW I think Guy Thomas' points are very strong.

E.g. Just one of his points: The Black Scholes methodology sought to model a market were dynamic hedging is possible and were arbitrage is eliminated by market participants. Applying this methodology to the residential property market is invalid: no dynamic hedging is possible, there are no market participants hedging there risk, there is no deep liquid market in the traded assets.

Of course the PRA have recommended Black 1976 and also the life co's are using "option pricing" techniques. So it's hard for them at this stage(in my view) to about-face and claim NNEG's are not options at all(as Numis argues).

In my view the NNEG's should be modeled stochastically just as other cash flows are modeled.

[cantrememberthis2] 12/9/2018 11:24

EUMAEUS = Shorters ammo IMO

[dasv] 12/9/2018 11:19

OK then what's the reason euamaeus.org seems to single out JUST with multiple blog posts when other ERM co's adopt the same approach but are ignored on the site?

[eumaeus] 12/9/2018 10:10

@nav mike. NO agenda except the correct valuation of embedded options. Here I agree 100% with PRA. On many other things I don't agree.

[nav_mike] 12/9/2018 09:49

I guess much will depend on whether the PRA share the zealot like attitude toward JUST that our poster from the weekend had.

Having read some of the articles on the blog he posted, I cant help but feel that theres a real agenda in play, and it remains to be seen whether the powers that be share his attitudes.

Of course he is 'recently retired' from the PRA so perhaps they dont? Either way, there is still the matter of the £1+ billion gap between the balance sheet and current mcap

[edwardt] 12/9/2018 09:00

too many income funds with rigid rules - not sure their unit holders will thank them for their policy.

[qs99] 12/9/2018 08:39

likewise. I think this will now trend back to a quid

[robsy2] 12/9/2018 08:38

I have bought another 17k at 77p.

[qs99] 12/9/2018 08:22

Just looks the wrong price IMO....as people have pointed out and interesting to see the brokers back that up DYOR

[qs99] 12/9/2018 07:50

Interesting thanks. Forced sellers therefore, MMs saying thanks very much....back to £1 Me thinks...

[cantrememberthis2] 12/9/2018 07:31

Bounce in the afternoon could be explained by 2pm article (yesterday)

Meanwhile the dip in share price prompted Panmure Gordon to upgrade the stock to a 'buy' because the record low represented a significant discount to what the stock was actually worth.

Shares in Just subsequently hit a record low today. A note from Panmure Gordon suggested this dip might be down to income funds 'taking a few following the deferment of the interim dividend decleration' during the half-year results.

However it is not all bad news for Just. Fitch continued to rate Just A+ in terms of finances. It also pointed out that Just has 'highlighted a range of capital management options available to it in case of a detrimental impact' from new rules.

hxxp://citywire.co.uk/new-model-adviser/news/just-group-shares-hit-record-low-ahead-of-equity-release-rule-change/a1153861

[cantrememberthis2] 11/9/2018 17:11

A blue close that'll do technically.
Due to this face algos type dudes look at these.
Also pierced through 75.5p...
Way undervalued and for once I agree with Barclay's and Numis...
Technical bounce on.

[cantrememberthis2] 11/9/2018 14:54

NAV no different to 74p, 71p, 69.75p

Noise.

GAME on. Would love it to close Blue

[nav_mike] 11/9/2018 14:51

Nice recovery, but shedloads of stock being dumped at 75/75.25

[cantrememberthis2] 11/9/2018 14:20

Could scoot to 80p today, mmmmmmmm stealthy work by shrewd investors.

[scrapheap] 11/9/2018 14:08

Great spot - good to see those analyst details and comments... I'm almost tempted to lower my entry cost again...

betting on Regulatory common sense is however a risky business...

[edwardt] 11/9/2018 13:51

check your inbox.

[cantrememberthis2] 11/9/2018 13:41

ed care to share?

[edwardt] 11/9/2018 13:39

got mine at 69.75p today so am feeling a little chipper. good article on ft alphaville for those with access re just

[cantrememberthis2] 11/9/2018 13:26

ed, combination of factors.

Sometimes don't discount large buyers putting in buy limits at much lower prices only for the MMs to happily oblige if it creates volume.

they feed off volume

shorts feed off fear

contrarians meanwhile hoover up

Absolute blinder sub 90p, even sub 80p!!!!

[edwardt] 11/9/2018 13:06

hopefully some sensible value managers buying rather than shorters closing - always like seeing them get squeezed.

[cantrememberthis2] 11/9/2018 12:19

Robsy, Ive 103331 shares, well under water and almost need life support LOL

[robsy2] 11/9/2018 12:09

Needs to , i’m drowning here....

[qs99] 11/9/2018 11:46

has it found the bottom do you think?

[cantrememberthis2] 11/9/2018 11:00

At these levels: reminder
"Embedded value per share has risen to 230p and IFRS Tangible Net Asset Value is 169p per share"

So half that at 85p... worse case so SKEWED massively lower.

ps. the RNS on the 6th Sept was interims! Awesome results for half year!