Jup Ord. Share Discussion Threads

[gary1966] 05/3/2022 15:23

Yep I suffered big falls this week. Finished Feb 6.6% up for the YTD but all that wiped out in the following 4 days to end the week flat for the year. I really only have two shares in my portfolio that I can trade in size and so decisions about me selling were really taken out of my hands. Re-invested my cash on Thursday and so timing perfect as usual. Fairly relaxed that all my dividends will be paid and the businesses won't go bust or be repossessed and so trying to focus on that. Just clearing the mortgage as quick as humanly possible. WW3 and all bets are off and I am not sure that having loads of cash is going to save us as it won't stop radiation. That was a bit morose and trying not to think about that scenario. Hopefully sanity will prevail, Russians will find their voice or someone will deal with Putin.

Do you really think PE will hold up any better than any other asset class?

[skyship] 05/3/2022 14:38

Well, we had a predictable shake-out this week, though it came later than many predicted; so we all had a good opportunity to raise cash levels before the Thursday/Friday falls.

As of close Friday the FTSE 100 (UKX) is now down 5.4%YTD; whilst the more representative FTSE 250 (MCX) is down 17.4%.

Personally I'm at 37% CASH and constantly looking at what remains in my portfolio and wondering whether to cut or trim further.

I've posted on the Private Equity thread today (PE) suggesting possible value there; and also decided to belatedly buy Uranium. I've traded YCA a few times over recent months; but don't trust it now as its Uranium holdings are provided by Kazatomprom. Instead, I'll buy politically secure Cameco (TSX:CCO).

[skyship] 28/2/2022 15:25

TRIN - My Tip for the Year in the Header. An interesting move today with big volume - and it is always the volume that precedes a breakout.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[skyship] 28/2/2022 13:23

Capricorn Energy (CNE), formerly Cairn Energy, has just last week confirmed the receipt of its $1.06bn tax rebate from the Indian Government. They can now proceed with the already promised $500m tender + $200m buybacks.

CNE has 495m share in issue after buying back c4.4m shares over the Nov’21-Jan’22 programme. So at 220p the MCap = £1.089m = $1.459m.

With their main Production & Exploration projects in The UK & Egypt; allied with supplementary projects in Israel, Mexico, Mauritania and Suriname, CNE is trading at a discount to its assets.

So, the share price in the short term really depends upon where they pitch the upcoming tender.

A 30% tender at 250p would cost $497m – so the figures would add up. To pitch at a lower figure wouldn’t necessarily achieve the level of acceptances they would need. IMO 250p would be the right level; and that would make the shares a good buy at around the current 220p.

22/01/22 Trading Update:


www.capricornenergy.com


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[gary1966] 24/2/2022 21:08

I bought just over 80k of DEC yesterday as a trading pot at 112.60p and was fortunate enough to sell them today for the same amount and so just lost £20 in charges. Nice drop on M&G today and so restored my position in those at 202.60p+SD+costs. Markets suggesting this evening that everything is all over and so glad to have got back in to M&G just before the close. Fully invested as a result. I have never kidded myself that I understand the markets but the events of the last few days have well and truly rammed home that I don't understand them.

Up just over 1% for the month and 3.5% for the year miraculously. Thoughts however must be with the Ukrainians though at this time.

[skyship] 24/2/2022 20:48

Increased to 45% CASH by selling a chunk of LTA - the French PE trust that for some reason were still at the top. Now less than 1% up YTD.

Bought a few CNE (too few) & also a few PRIM at 3.43p that I'd top-sliced last week.

[gary1966] 24/2/2022 15:34

Sky,

Are you sitting on your hands today, deploying some cash or increasing cash allocation further?

[gary1966] 22/2/2022 16:35

Well I didn't think I would be saying this today but sold the M&G I bought only yesterday for 216p to scalp 5pps in 24hrs. Happy to have increased cash levels and see what happens overnight.

[cwa1] 22/2/2022 11:30

I THINK it was Rothschild who said something along the lines of: buy on the sound of gunfire, sell on the sound of trumpets

[gary1966] 22/2/2022 10:50

Well I guess we have our answer, markets go up when Russian troops move into Ukraine and things escalate. You couldn't make it up. Was looking to buy back the rest of my position in M&G below 210p but didn't when they were in the 207p range because I thought things would get worse for the market as the day went on, now 215p+. I have decided this morning that I am not destined to make money ever again after this mornings performance in the markets.

[skyship] 14/2/2022 10:31

These charts of the Dow & the SP500 show clearly we are in a difficult area. Uptrends seem broken; Top Formations turning over.

If Ukraine withdraws its request to join NATO, that might give Putin the excuse he needs not to engage in what would be a seriously damaging war for Russia. That could also provide another relief rally to sell into.

Seems like a good time to raise liquidity levels if not already done so; and also buy a few SUK2 for downside protection.


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free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[starpukka] 13/2/2022 12:47

Sky, yes I top-slice or sell if I think the valuation is frothy or I think the market will tank further. Alternatively, I may average up. This works occasionally, ha ha.

[skyship] 12/2/2022 13:22

Well, I think we are all agreed that the good go down with the bad when markets crash; and IMO if Putin did invade then a global crash is what we would see. The sheer weight of money looking for an exit and a total dearth of buyers would see an almost instant fall of 10%-15%...then more.

However, a military move would be totally catastrophic for the Russian economy. Putin will know this; so he is just making political capital for his gigantic ego. The only thing other than assassination that can bring Putin down is revolts in the streets - so why would he risk it. Apparently there is no support for military action among the Russian populace, especially the young. So if Moscow started to see body-bags, Putin and his close coterie would soon be history.

Nevertheless, as I said earlier - "It seems to me that Wall Street is fragile with or without Ukraine."

starpukka - sure, let profitable investments run - a successful old adage. But keep an eye on valuations; and why not top-slice so you have cash ready to deploy at lower levels.

[starpukka] 12/2/2022 12:05

Sky and Gary. I agree about rabbit in the headlights. Invasion could lead to a sustained drop in the markets next week; or a small one followed by a quick rise back to current levels. This could even all happen on Monday.
I tell myself I should take profits but equally I want to let my profitable trades run. Plus, I still have lots of confidence my current loss makers will rebound.

[gary1966] 12/2/2022 12:01

I also can't decide how serious any conflict is going to be. Crimea was a non event globally (obviously not for the Ukranians) as nobody did anything. Will it be the same this time that Russia will be allowed to steamroll Ukraine followed by sanctions for a couple of years until they become inconvenient? It is questions I am struggling with and is why I am procrastinating so much lately. China will always support Russia economically and won't sign up for any sanctions as they want Russia's oil, gas and natural resources and so I am not sure how effective sanctions will be. Would China side with Russia in the event of escalation and a fairly major world war ensue? For all these reasons I think my head is in the sand.

[gary1966] 12/2/2022 11:28

Sky,

I haven't sold any shares to create a cash buffer presently or gone short the market. As I said in a previous post I have large exposure to gas and oil presently that I have to believe will be a beneficiary of any conflict. However I appreciate that the whole market would be hit. I am however keeping a very close eye on the short term indicators of DEC, presently, and may take a chance at trying to trade them over the next few days. I will be honest in that I am like a rabbit in headlights presently and don't really know which way to turn.

[skyship] 12/2/2022 10:34

So, for me a very quiet week. Closed out the week at 32% CASH.....and nervous of events in Eastern Europe.

Just on Thursday the financial press was reporting the FTSE breaking through a key resistance level at 7619. Up to 7678, back to 7623, up to 7686, back to 7600, then a strong move on Friday afternoon up again to 7669 before closing out the week at 7661.

This whipsaw of indecision is not a positive breakout by any means; and Friday's further weakness on Wall Street currently suggests back to 7600 on Monday.

We've all enjoyed good profits over the past two years; and my SIPP is no exception to that. So partially sitting on the side-lines in capital preservation mode means less mental luggage as the World stage plays out.

It seems to me that Wall Street is fragile with or without Ukraine; and clearly no escape for World markets when the Dow falls.

Thoughts anyone?

[skyship] 09/2/2022 15:20

PRIM was my Share of the Year for 2021. they traded at 3.4p versus an NAV of 6.55p. In 2021 the shares traded twice up to 5.0p; but then deflated as they got caught up in a fiendishly complicated investment in a vanadium company. That deal with three other parties then headed to court; as the shares retraced to their starting point at 3.4p.

Thankfully, Rupert Labrum, exec. chmn., inserted a skilful get-out clause should the deal not complete by end 2021. As a result, of the $2.5m investment, $1m has now been returned. The other $1.5m is likely to be invested in BMN stock - potentially a good investment in its own right down at 10p/share.

In the meantime, RL took his stake up from 17% to c23%.

So, once again, PRIM look an attractive trade at a 47% NAV discount to a portfolio of cash and private companies - essentially Engage, Zuuse & Fresho. Zuuse now trading as PayApps - and could be the first IPO or trade sale opportunity:



Somewhat unusually RL posts here on ADVFN and answers questions on the PRIM thread; using the rather bizarre moniker betterupthandown1. We have been conversing there today.

On offer at 3.45p PRIM once again looks value for a small allocation trade.

[gary1966] 01/2/2022 11:35

Thanks Sky. Similar to you with 2.25% and missed opportunity to trade a few DEC again.

[skyship] 01/2/2022 08:53

Gary - re the Cenkos note - YES - all you have to do is log on & register (free), then you can access their research.

RE NBPE. Sold half before the fall; kept the other half throughout. Have been successfully trading into the fall with BPET & PIN.

Closed out January up 2% in spite of being 30% CASH. Still nervous of the madman Putin.

[gary1966] 31/1/2022 18:01

Thanks Sky for letting me know, should plummet now then.:-)

Were you out of NBPE during the recent falls. I picked up a tiny tiny amount at £17.05 the other day but should have waited another 24hrs.

Out of interest is there any way of accessing the Cenkos note on TRIN?

[skyship] 31/1/2022 16:55

Gary - IC Alpha has tipped your STCM. Not a subscriber to Alp[ha; but starts as below:

Our Aim GARP screen topper, Steppe Cement (STCM) is a company with a lot of interesting risks and opportunities to consider. Firstly, cement is one of those Jekyll and Hyde products in the eyes of environment, social and governance (ESG) conscious investors: one the one hand cement manufacture is incredibly carbon intensive and on the other hand, it is essential to building the infrastructure that will ready humanity for a lower carbon future. Steppe Cement is an investment holding company, but one of its subsidiaries has its main manufacturing facility in Kazakhstan, so political risk is also a consideration.

[spangle93] 26/1/2022 17:25

@SKYSHIP

This summary report by Hardman is a pretty comprehensive introduction to listed REIFs and infrastructure companies



I know there are threads for REITS and PE, but I don't know of a generic infrastructure one. While I think it would be of interest to those who read this thread, you perhaps know somewhere more directly pertinent

[skyship] 12/1/2022 10:31

HIGHCROFT Investments (HCFT) – the next REIT to look anomalously cheap

HCFT is perhaps the smallest of the investable UK listed property companies, with Net Assets of £61.4m and a MCap of just £46.6m. It is a very conservatively managed company with antenna well attuned to the sector minefield; ie, where to allocate your funds – office, industrial, retail warehouse, retail etcetcetc.

Warehouse/Retail Warehouse (“W/RW”) together accounted for 72% of the portfolio at the Jun’21 Interim stage, with Retail at just 7%. This compares with 48% & 29% just 8yrs ago; and at that time they also had 4% in residential. So, they have moved the portfolio strongly in the right direction; and a perusal through the website also shows the quality of the tenant mix at each and every one of their W/RW sites.
The highlight of September’s Interim Statement was the 7.3% increase in the NAV to 1185p, a figure surpassing the pre-Covid high of 1175p. Less good was the fall in occupancy rate from 99% to 89%:

“At the period end three of our properties were void, representing 11% of our rental income. We are negotiating a new lease on one of these units representing 4% of our rental income, and we are actively engaged in seeking new tenants for the others.”

A post period completion on a sale takes their cash up to £6.2m; so news of an acquisition would be beneficial before too much earnings lag.
An obvious attraction is the yield. With last year’s dividend of 57p (inc. a 6p special dividend) the yield at 900p = 6.33%. At that same 900p the NAV discount = 24.1%. LTV is 31.4% and Debt Cost = 3.1%.

Trading is complicated by the fact that associates of one of the Directors, David Kingerlee, account for 41% of the equity; whilst another holding company with the awkward name of DG & MB Conn & Associates account for a further 23.2%. Conn (AKA Stewart & Wight Ltd) is a private property company and a long term holder which routinely adds c15,000 shares to their holding every year.

With the free float at just 35.8% of the 5.183m shares, ie just c1.85m shares, the Market is always tight and the spread usually wide; though not as wide as the headline figure. The spread at the moment is 888p-914p (2.9%) versus the headline figure of 870p-920p (5.7%).

Accordingly, buyers need to be patient, not over-pay, perhaps wait to follow in after a seller.

To summarise, HCFT is well managed, has an excellent portfolio and offers a yield and discount level now rather out-of-line with their larger peers. With talk of rationalisation amongst the smaller REITs, corporate action remains a possibility; and would likely deliver an immediate 33% upside.

A safe and secure high-yielder.

Last Annual Report - to Dec'20: