Jup Ord. Share Discussion Threads

[gary1966] 06/1/2022 10:23

No still in them Sky and my average is just under 17.5p after a couple of successful trades. I am not sure that cement demand is going to go away and they are a long way away from the main troubles in Almaty. There should be an update next week when preliminary results are announced and so hopefully the current situation will be addressed. Very quiet time of year for the cement market anyway as it will be very cold over there presently.

[skyship] 06/1/2022 09:35

Gary - I also avoid places like Kazakhstan! With the news from there I hope you took a good turn in STCM and not still in them.

[skyship] 05/1/2022 16:58

Gary - thnx, but I try to avoid buying anything on the African continent.

Yes, a good start to 2022, aided by NBPE of course.

[gary1966] 04/1/2022 14:14

Nice start to the year with Amedeo Air Four Plus re-instating the quarterly dividend at 1.25ppq or 5ppa. Shares can be picked up for less than 29p and so an astonishing yield and trading at a substantial discount to a heavily fallen NAV that hopefully is near or at the bottom.

Good first day of trading with M&G and DEC performing strongly.

[spangle93] 03/1/2022 16:58

I'm not sure the criteria for posting a 2022 tip, but if anyone can have a go, I'd like to nominate another Trinidad O&G explorer and producer, Touchstone Exploration, TXP. which is dual listed on TSX and AIM.

SKYSHIP already listed the favourable macro conditions for O&G explorers in Trinidad. Moreover, of all the companies who were awarded licences in 2014, only TXP has fulfilled the commitments of its licence award. Furthermore, it has made discoveries of gas fields onshore, the first on the island for decades; gas is greatly needed for power by the gas-dependent industries in the country, so there is a "pull" from the government to make things happen. The oil minister often refers to the company (in a positive way!) Again, in a macro sense, most oil analysts such as Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan are predicting oil prices may yet need to rise further in 2022, increasing the netback for each barrel produced.

If you're not in TXP, the "elevator story" is that they have profitable base production from low rate onshore legacy wells of around 1300 bopd which keeps the lights on. A current 4-well drilling campaign is seeking to add maybe 500 bopd to this load, now that prices have recovered. However, the main news story is around its Ortoire block; a highly prospective onshore licence on which they've drilled 5 wells to date. These wells are more like appraisal since they are redrilling wells from the 1960s that reported hydrocarbons but which were uncommercial at the time, and left undeveloped.

The first well resulted in a small gas discovery (Coho); production is long overdue, but should start in Q1 2022, doubling TXP's production at the flick of a switch. A second gas discovery, Cascadura, is due onstream from 2 wells by end Q2 2022 (though cynics are suggeting anytime this year is good). Cascadura should produce 60 MMscf/d, or ca. 10000boepd, compared to 10 MMscf/d from Coho. A further well, Chinook, did not deliver oil or gas on test, but the company is confident that a second well updip will hit an oil leg.

That campaign culminated recently with the drilling of the largest prospect, Royston. The first test found a bonus "intermediate" sheet at the base of the well - this zone tested oil rather than the anticipated gas, so it looks like a big win. However, the second and third tests in the primary target produced a strange outcome - the company hailed it as a huge success, even though the tests contained higher levels of water that are usually delivered by a well in a virgin field at the crest of a structure. An extended well test will start in the new year, as will a second well on the Royston structure.

This dichotomy has not yet been adequately explained publicly by the company, other than "the production of water is typical in Trinidad fields" and has led to share price weakness, which has totally eliminated the gains from the first test, even though this intermediate sheet is estimated to be a 100 MMbbl find.

Anyway, I believe that drivers of TXP share price performance will be
- anomalously depressed price on Jan 1
- gas coming onstream from Coho and Cascdura discoveries in 1H22,
- the annual CPR review independently assigns significant reserves to Royston (as the company believes it will)
- other exploration and development wells are drilled
- oil price remains at levels allowing good profitability (gas price is fixed by a signed contract)

Other drivers are possible, e.g. award of other licences in the current round, further drilling of base production wells, or of course, an offer for the company...

I would consequently be very disappointed if the share price isn't at least double its current level by the end of the year, so current weakness is IMHO a good entry point.

Post-Royston presentation can be found here

[skyship] 03/1/2022 12:08

Well, not being an angler ANG certainly a new one to me. Agree, it looks a good value microcap, however they do seem consistently wanting to drive volumes rather than profits; and overseas excursions could be a concern. Still, good luck with that - for sure an original one!

After quite a few days of pondering and reading; I've added three stocks to my BUY list:

BP (BP.)@ 331p; Fresnillo (FRES) @ 890p; & AVI Japan Opportunity Trust ( AJOT) @ 121p.

# BP (& SHELL) are now on crazily low multiples and very tempting yields. BP likely at 6.5 PER & 5.3% yield. Their overtly green agendas may assist sentiment to perhaps swing back slightly in their favour in 2022.

# FRES just a blue chip way to play a better AU/AG market in 2022.

# AJOT a way to play the Japanese smaller caps


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[gary1966] 31/12/2021 16:21

Sky, thanks for setting up again.

TRIN I left a buy order in a few days ago for a fair few at 123p. Hopefully it will get hit as would like to be back in, having traded a few times in 2021.

PRIM was good for me as I was in at about 3.4p and exited at 4.7p as I wasn’t bowled over by the incestuous nature of the MUST stake.

This years tip for me is Angling Direct at 55p and a market cap of £41m. Loaded with nearly £20m of net cash and probably more by now. EBITDA of £4.4m and PBT of £3.7m in the first half and have signalled at least £5m EBITDA for the year, which I think will prove conservative and will probably be where the PBT will end up. This will be after costs of setting up a warehouse in mainland Europe which will drive margins and aid logistically going forward. New management team came in a couple of years ago to expand and drive the business. Omnichannel and so when shops were closed the online side picked up the business. Strong revenue growth and higher margin own brands growing strongly. Just feel on a P/e of around 8 and half that on a cash adjusted basis that they are too cheap after recent falls. RSI low and coming off the bottom. Won’t set the world on fire but could see 40-60% gain at some time during the year based on buy price of 55p.

GLA and look forward to hearing everyone else’s share suggestions.

[cwa1] 31/12/2021 15:20

Thanks for setting up Sky.

Wishing you and yours a happy, healthy and prosperous New Year :-)

[skyship] 31/12/2021 15:14

New post for 2022 up and running:



Gary - Yes, closed out +31.1%; though Q4 was indeed quieter. Happily was out of DEC when the bad news hit; so escaped that one! 2021 turned out to be my best year since the halcyon years of 2003/4 when the SPLITs were providing great returns and gave rise to the title of these threads. Other than 2009 of course, which was a gravy-train for all I assume.

Expecting a much quieter 2022 as the PE & REIT opportunities surely can't be so generous....

[skyship] 31/12/2021 15:01

SPLITs Followers’ Thoughts for 2022

Well, turned out to be another good year; though personally, whilst mostly keeping the cash in play, I was however constantly looking over my shoulder for the crash to come – or at least a serious shake-out.

There are so many bearish factors in play that it is truly amazing that the Markets continue to provide. Closing of the taper; rising inflation; rising interest rates; political turmoil – real & potential; enforced margin debt reduction; a move from growth to value; valuations; and of course, COVID!

These concerns continue, they all suggest caution, though perhaps without any single trigger for an overnight 10% fall. Perhaps a crypto collapse might do it!

Anyway, the UK indices closed the year in distinctly positive territory, though very much second fiddle to Markets across the Atlantic and across The Channel. The FTSE100 at 7385 (+14.3%) and the FTSE 250 at 23481 (+14.6%); however AIM under-performed, closing 2021 at 1217 (+5.2%).

Personally my portfolio gained c19% in H1, then continued on to close out the year up 31.1%. Gains mainly coming from REITs & PE, especially NBPE.

My Tip for 2021 – Primorus Investments (PRIM) – tipped at 3.5p double topped at 5.0p in the early Summer – up 43% at that stage. Unfortunately it then gave back all its gains due to concerns over a new portfolio investment; and closed out the year back at 3.5p.

My Spec for 2021 – Hammerson (HMSO) – tipped at 24.85p, also had a great run early in the year, peaking at 44.5p – up 79%. They then drifted back before closing out at 32.88p – a rise of 32.3%

My tip for 2022 is in the out of favour oil sector – Trinity Exploration & Production (TRIN). TRIN is an AIM listed MicroCap, which at 128p has a MCap of just £50m. However this is no AIM spec stock; to quote Simon Thompson in his Sept’21 article in the IC: “A cash-rich independent oil and gas producer is on course to more than double operating profit this year and offers material upside from multiple exploration projects.”

TRIN operates exclusively in Trinidad, both onshore and offshore. A supportive Government and the high number of ongoing and prospective projects, caused a run-up in the share price earlier this year, peaking at 180p. Shortly thereafter we heard the news of the untimely death of the Company’s founder and driving force, Brice Dingwall. Since then sentiment has weighed against TRIN and it will be on newsflow that the share price will recover and exceed its earlier highs.

Loads of info in the following links:







My spec for 2022 – perhaps unimaginatively I re-run last year’s tip – PRIM. I am hopeful that their $2.5m investment into MUST will be recoverable through the contractual backstop they cleverly inserted; and I also hope that at least one of their main private company investments will benefit from a trade sale or IPO. The share price of 3.5p versus the last declared NAV of 6.55p clearly represents value.

I look forward to reading others’ New Year tips and views; and any contributions throughout the year are most welcome…

=====================

A couple of useful links to commodity prices & the UK 10yr Gilt::

[gary1966] 31/12/2021 14:00

Well I lost about 0.7% in the final quarter and so I will doff my cap to you Sky as I am pretty sure you had a reasonable final qtr and will have done in excess of 30% for the year. Myself, I finished at a respectable 28.67% which I am exceedingly happy with given that the portfolio is really set up for income now. Was a tale of missed opportunities in the final quarter, most notably with DEC that could have been traded very profitably on a few occasions. Fall in DEC share price hit the portfolio for about 3% in the quarter.

Looking forward to sharing ideas for 2022 when the new thread is set up.

So all that leaves me to say is wishing everyone a healthy and happy 2022.

[ianood] 24/12/2021 14:16

Here here Gary, many thanks SKYSHIP

[gary1966] 24/12/2021 10:53

And you Sky and thank you once again for the effort you put in to these threads.

[skyship] 24/12/2021 10:26

Wishing everyone all Health & Happiness for Christmas & The New Year

New thread up a week today...

[skyship] 20/12/2021 15:34

O/T...

We have some good friends out here (SW France) who had such a business in the 70s - selling only German wines. Problem was, and possibly still is, that very few Brits speak German; and the fiendishly complicated labelling was a real put-off.

They struggled with it for a couple of years; but then gave up.

We mainly drink Languedoc and Rhone wines; but also an excellent Bergerac made by a vigneron now considered one of the very best in France - David Fourtout:



We mainly drink his 10litre BIBs - that's what the Fourtout family drink!

[tournesol] 19/12/2021 17:21

Celebrating with an extraordinary German pinot noir to go with tonight's wild mushroom wellington.

[tournesol] 19/12/2021 17:19

Too busy to watch the markets at present let alone trade. I've got a micro- business selling wine and about 90% of my years turnover happens between Mid Nov to Mid Dec. Having to start at 6am the past month sometimes through to 2am next day. Just about finished today.

[skyship] 19/12/2021 15:08

Traded a few out on Donald Pond's post on the NBPE thread re the Jeffries estimate
of the NAV being hit by the fall in Autostore. Bought them back at 1785 on Friday as
relatively underweight; though Autostore had another bad day - dn 6.6%!

[skyship] 14/12/2021 08:19

Sorry - now looks to be 1825p to buy - discount still 23.0%...

[skyship] 14/12/2021 08:17

Yet another fantastic monthly NAV performance by NBPE. November UP 3%; this combined with the stronger $ takes the NAV up to 2369p so at the offer price of 1810p the discount shoots back up to 23.6%. Clearly under-valued yet again, share price not keeping up with events.

[davebowler] 09/12/2021 16:16

PPIX turned out OK with a buyout to be carried out this month-

The Acquisition Price is fixed and will be paid in US Dollars.
-- The Acquisition Price values the entire issued and to be issued share capital of the Company at approximately $11.6 million (which equates to GBP8.7 million as of the date of the Merger Agreement) and represents a premium of:

1. approximately 54.6% over the thirty trading day average closing price of the Company's Common Stock on the OTC market of $0.076 ending on 9 November 2021; and

2. approximately 53.8% over the thirty trading day average closing price of the Company's Common Stock on AIM of 0.056 pence ending on 9 November 2021.

[gary1966] 03/12/2021 15:57

Yes noted on the OCT thread which seems to have come to life of late.