Jubilee Metals Share Discussion Threads

[goingforarun] 17/1/2020 18:52

Rhodium at $9k!

[gsg] 17/1/2020 18:33

THREE WEEKS TO GO TO THE 2020 SA MINING INDABA




South Africa

As BRICS partners, China and South Africa have a robust trading relationship, built primarily on South African mineral exports to supply. 85% of South African exports to China are precious metals and minerals. As such, China is keen to keep SA mining and metallurgic operations going for its domestic metal demand.

It was announced in 2018 that $10bn from a group of Chinese investors will go towards building a metallurgical complex, built by the China International Railway Group and partners Baobab Mining, by SA President Cyril Ramaphosa.

The complex would include a stainless-steel plant, a ferrochrome plant, and a silicomanganese plant.

This is the tip of an economic iceberg when it comes to China’s monetary presence in South Africa’s mining industry. PGM’s are of huge importance to Chinese industry and are subsequently subject of much FDI.

Weziwe Platinum, for example, has been provided with a $650m loan from the China Development Bank to keep output coming. Interestingly, this loan is at a much smaller interest rate than the standard, 3.8% vs. 8%, characteristic of financing offered by Chinese institutes to projects considered highly strategic in value.

The loan was focussed on the Bakubung mine, which is forecast to have an output of 350,000 oz. of platinum group metals once full capacity is reached in 2023.

[plat hunter] 17/1/2020 17:56

Yangou £3 :-P

[the skipper] 17/1/2020 17:14

Following on from Robers' article about Glencore here's a map showing global production of Ferrochrome,from which you will see that Glencore's South African operation is easily the World's largest producer:


Curtailing production there can only have a beneficial effect on prices, and if other producers follow suite price recovery could be sharp and sweet. Perfect storm brewing here with PGM prices now in a strong bull market.

[yangou] 17/1/2020 17:10

Where will be the next stop after 4.5p

[mikebolle1] 17/1/2020 16:57

...right now
right now

[adejuk] 17/1/2020 16:51

and so it begins
needles and pins

[boris cobaka] 17/1/2020 16:51

When the dollar begins to rollover once more which it looks about to, then this will add further impetus to the metal prices. It's been more of a headwind in the last week but it looks like that's about to change. The other thing to watch out for is the next fed meeting in a week or two.

[gsg] 17/1/2020 16:49

A squeeze in ready availability of automotive metal palladium has driven up already record-high prices by 25% in just two weeks, accelerating a four-year rally and stoking expectations for further gains, analysts said.

A long-term supply deficit has led prices of the metal, used mainly in engine exhausts to curb harmful emissions, to double over the last year.

Consumers’ immediate needs are often met in the lending market, in which holders of metal put their stocks to work for a profit. However, rates charged to lease palladium have spiked in recent weeks, suggesting availability is tight.

In the futures market, prices of metal for near-term delivery have also moved sharply above those for later-dated contracts - a situation known as backwardation, which also indicates buyers fear a lack of ready supply.

Spot palladium broke above $2,500 an ounce on Friday – its highest ever - from less than $500 in January 2016. Before this rally began, palladium prices had never exceeded $1,100.

“There’s no metal,” said a trader in London. “Consumers are stockpiling. It’s all been shipped to China.”

The roughly 10-million-ounce a year market has been in deficit for most of the last decade. Standard Chartered analyst Suki Cooper said she expects 700,000 ounce shortfalls this year and in 2021, and for prices to rise.

In the last two weeks the market flared into deeper backwardation.

Forward and lease rates have also leaped to around 20%, the highest in a year, from around 3% at the start of January.

South Africa, which produces two-fifths of the world’s mined palladium, released data on Thursday showing its output of platinum group metals including palladium fell 13.5% in November compared to the same month in 2018.

[robers98] 17/1/2020 16:30

Palladium Tops $2,500 an Ounce in Biggest One-Day Surge Since 2008

Palladium surged the most since 2008 as scant supply and robust demand extend a record-breaking rally.

Spot palladium jumped as much as 9.7% to $2,539.14 an ounce. The metal is headed for its best week since 2001 and showing little sign of slowing down, even as some analysts caution that prices may be due for a pullback. Prices were up 9% at 11:10 a.m. in New York.

While palladium’s rally has been driven by supply deficits and surging demand, the increases have exceeded market forecasts, said Rene Hochreiter, an analyst at Noah Capital Markets Ltd. who expects prices could retreat to average $2,250 an ounce for the rest of the year.

“Prices do not go up forever and the recent run should see a correction, though the fundamental shortfalls will not go away anytime soon,” Hochreiter said.

[goingforarun] 17/1/2020 16:25

I’m struggling to believe that we won’t see a big tick up in the share price once the update arrives. We have increasing basket price, increasing production, increased assets on the ground and a mining licence that may start to come into play! Can’t think of a more perfect storm! May have to jump in for more on Monday!

[robers98] 17/1/2020 16:20

Glencore to restructure SA ferrochrome following “material losses” at Rustenburg smelter

HIGH electricity tariffs, interruptions, and deteriorating conditions in the ferrochrome market have forced Glencore and its joint venture partner, Merafe Resources, to consider restructuring its Rustenburg smelter.

As a result, the partners have commenced a Section 189 process in terms of the Labour Relations Act that may result in job losses. Glencore did not specify the extent of its planned restructuring, but it said Rustenburg smelter was suffering financial losses and would continue to do so “for the foreseeable future”.

The Rustenburg smelter produces about 430,000 tons of ferrochrome annually. Glencore’s total smelting capacity from South Africa is 2.3 million tons (Mt)
This decision is the result of deteriorating operating and market conditions across the South African ferrochrome industry including unsustainable electricity tariffs and interruptions, cross subsidies and real cost inflation,” Glencore said. Significant ferrochrome output had also been displaced to international producers whose costs are lower.

The National Energy Regulator of South Africa (Nersa) last year granted Eskom, the state-owned power utility, annual electricity tariff increases of 9.4% in 2019/2020, increasing 8.1% and 5.2% in subsequent years. Nersa also approved an additional 4.4% tariff increase to allow Eskom to recoup costs which amounted to an increase in the annual electricity tariff for 2019/2020 to 13.9%, and a compounded increase of 9% over three years. This is some 29.5% higher than the current electricity tariff.

In addition to this, Eskom intensified rolling blackouts last year rationing some 6,000MW from the national grid as its ageing fleet continues to break down. So-called loadshedding was applied again earlier this month, a development which affects the production of power intensive users such as Rustenburg smelter, and impacts on efficiencies.

Some 665 jobs would be “part of the process”, said Shivani Chetram, a spokeswoman for Glencore in South Africa. Of these, about 619 are permanent employees

The ferrochrome price was about 12% weaker last year, according to Tharisa, a London and Johannesburg-listed producer which reported heavy declines in profits. Global stainless steel output rose 8% higher at 28.6Mt last year but Chinese ferrochrome production was 600,000 tons higher at 4.4Mt by the end of September.

Glencore said it had held meetings with employee representatives prior to instituting the Section 189 process and would now rely on the services of the Commission for Conciliation, Mediation and Arbitration to guide it through the process.

[plat hunter] 17/1/2020 16:19

I'd take a 100/1 dilution for bringing tjate online if full production was over 300k

[goingforarun] 17/1/2020 16:13

Deme, just be nice to think if that arrives we could be onto a lot more money. Just makes me think everyone’s urgency is not always right!

[rescuer] 17/1/2020 16:12

couple of more tick ups and we get to CSTE on 4.5, who handled the last placing.

break and hold above 4.5 and we're in a new trading range

slowly slowly

have a great weekend all,

r

[cernunnus] 17/1/2020 16:07

Hopefully on its way to the launch pad!

[kennyp52] 17/1/2020 16:02

Ohh .. I bought at 2.7p .. 4.3 now .. that’s better than 60% Deme 🤣 . Is this just the fuse? Of course I am hoping for more like 7p when I refer to a 60% up tick . Do think when the penny drops in respect of profitability of JLP moving forward that value will be reflected in the not so distant future and when it does I think it will be an RNS that triggers a big day .

[dekle] 17/1/2020 15:58

Is this finally going to come good or just another false dawn?

[robers98] 17/1/2020 15:39

Chrome plant restart, is the reason for the pgm delay. Our plant is highly automated, so there are more jobs 1st by restarting chrome production.

[deme1] 17/1/2020 15:36

Going.

That licence was imminent 4 years ago!

We will have 2 super cycles and then get the licence granted when pgm's are at an all time low ;)

[robers98] 17/1/2020 15:35

Depends how long it will take to build the plant. Palladium could be even higher.

[goingforarun] 17/1/2020 15:21

Aren’t we still waiting for the licence to process the DCM PGM? Value of that is rising by the second!

[1madmarky] 17/1/2020 15:18

Blind PANIC setting in for those that need to buy palladium. :-)

[adejuk] 17/1/2020 15:10

here we go here we go
here we goooo