Jubilee Metals Share Discussion Threads

[xow98] 11/11/2024 11:12

Company updated their website on the 29th October with all "knowns". They can only update what they are notified about and it is the buyers responsibility to notify.

[genises] 11/11/2024 11:08

A good question where are the other 300 million.
As said before the company should issue a RNS on holdings as we know not all are being reported to the company.
6 months or less we were probably be brought by !!!

[robers98] 11/11/2024 11:04

Foord equity A with 9.8m

[genises] 11/11/2024 11:03

Fil
Is closing down only one of its funds
The 34 million more than likely was cleared last week.
The Barclays buyer was me but it’s gone up since.
The selling is from those that we’re buying in at 4.4

[xow98] 11/11/2024 10:50

So FIL still owned 149m in the 2 funds at 1 November. Another 34m to go from the one fund and who knows on the other 114m.

Who is the buyer?

Data from 30 Apr 2024 - 01 Nov 2024

Buyers
Interactive Inv…..+32m
Hargreaves Lans…..+29m
Konwave AG….......+ 5m
Barclays Bank P…..+ 2m

Total buys 69m

Sellers
FIL Investments…...….-232m
Jupiter Asset M…....….-93m
Canaccord Genui…....R30;.-32m
FIL Investment …....….-8m
Slater Investme…....….-5m

Total Sells 369m

Where are the other 300m?

[the_isolator] 11/11/2024 09:54

So are FIL getting rid of the lot with there 114m in the other fund

[pshevlin] 11/11/2024 09:53

Not so sure about many more shares being available robers. FIL seem to have dumped most of theirs as FIL Inv Adv. are holdings by PIs as far as I know. Nothing to come from Jupiter so may be at the very least almost over.

[robers98] 11/11/2024 09:41

CMAC, looks like still more shares available from the funds. Will be interesting tomorrow to get a view from Leon about how close this is to being finished.

[pshevlin] 11/11/2024 09:27

So, Oak Bloke. not a screaming buy at the moment then?

[xow98] 11/11/2024 09:22

Still showing Fidelity at 115m. Is there a link to the 34m stated?

[goingforarun] 11/11/2024 08:48

Great opportunity to multibag from here!

[call me a cab] 11/11/2024 08:39

10 million traded in less than 40 mins

[the_isolator] 11/11/2024 08:24

Few profit takers from the 4.5p days fair enough

[robers98] 11/11/2024 08:13

Getting close to 6p already this morning.

[the_isolator] 11/11/2024 08:07

Carnt buy online with ii

[mr waite] 11/11/2024 06:45

From poster on LSE
See the FT site has updated the holdings info to 1st November confirming one of the FIL funds were down to 34 million at that date so must have sold the remaining last week.

[putinaire] 10/11/2024 22:24

Wouldnt even bother setting an alert sub 19p really. Will get there. Then see

[putinaire] 10/11/2024 22:21

Will hit July 21 prices

[frogkid] 10/11/2024 21:27

Thanks Ade, Shevvers and KenCheersFrog

[xow98] 10/11/2024 20:40

Jubilee Metals – “Operational Update”, a Q1 and outlook positives BUY

Jubilee Metals (JLP) has issued an “Operational Update Q1 FY2025”-titled announcement including emphasising further strong South Africa production and significant progress towards material Zambia copper production. Those suggest further material upside from a current up to 5.5p share price.

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[mr waite] 10/11/2024 20:21

What stops jubilee taking their know how to other countries with its partner

Earlier this year, IRH completed the acquisition of a 51% stake in Zambia's Mopani Copper Mines. The IRH has also been pursuing other copper assets in Zambia as the UAE and seeks to secure critical metal supplies from Africa amid a global shift to cleaner energy.

The IRH also has operations or prospects in Angola, Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, South Africa, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.

IRH, an arm of International Holding Company, said it plans to target “over 500,000 tonnes of green copper annually by 2025”.

“This initiative will further cement the region’s strategic importance in the global energy transition

[the_isolator] 10/11/2024 19:31

inspiring interview with Leon Coetzer today but listen carefully to the words:Interviewer "Your revenue will be significantly higher than your market price"Coetzer replies "Yes absolutely"True/False - True.The revenue according to my model would be £196m and the market cap is £163m. So we could quibble whether 20% more "significantly" higher? We could quibble also whether the ratio of Price to Sales is a relevant ratio to be using to value a miner? I'm struggling to think so. But a forecast of £196m revenue is factually higher than the market price.But the Interviewer then says: "Within a few months you're going to be on an earnings ratio of less than 1"Coetzer replies "What the numbers show exactly that fact"True/False - False.If it were true JLP would be a screaming bargain! £163m of post tax earnings would afford a huge dividend, would generate vast piles of cash, and JLP would easily have a valuation above a billion pounds.According to my model and based on the FY2025 guidance from JLP earnings are estimated by the OB to be $29.5m. So either the share price would need to drop by over 82% from Friday's 5.2p a share to be at a P/E below 1 (let's hope not, eh?) or the price of Copper, PGMs and Chrome would need to substantially rise for JLP to be on a P/E of below 1, based on the FY25 guidance.Here's my model based on the guidance numbers. Arguably the PGM basket could move above a $1400 an ounce average during FY25 (currently they are at circa $1450/oz)Net Profit $29.5m is not a P/E of 1 :(But what my model does show is a £22.3m net profit and a P/E of 7.3 for FY25. That's at the lowest band of copper guidance. Not being cynical but I'm going with the lower number.Ok, ok, let's consider the higher guidance number. At the higher 7,500 tonnes guidance the P/E drops to circa 6.2 on an estimated £26m net profit. That's based on a $7,700 average copper price. Whether a higher copper price than about 20% below the "normal" world price (currently $9,500 a tonne) could be possible isn't entirely clear either.Do I believe the JLP share price will drop 82%? No, I think it was a bit of high spirits and/or a mistake by the interviewer to both propose the earnings could be that, but also for Coetzer to agree with the interviewer. They might need to edit that bit out once the NOMAD realises what was said.So what do I think?Copper ProductionWhilst the delay in increasing copper production is a little frustrating, it is now growing closer.The bit which impressed me was this:"The integrated Roan facility targets an initial stable feed rate of 75 000 tpm of material over the first three quarters of operation, with the potential to increase to a feed rate of 90 000 tpm thereafter. An initial copper recovery of 55% copper in feed is targeted before the introduction of leaching at Roan which is expected to increase copper recoveries to in excess of 70%. This translates to an initial copper unit production from Roan, prior to leaching, of approximately 520 tpm of copper with the potential to increase to 670 tpm assuming the lower feed rate of 75 000 tpm is maintained."Hidden in the numbers it what I think is significant news around the measures being taken to improve the recovery of the ore. Assuming "in excess of 70%" only means 70% then we are talking about a >20% improvement through scale up at Roan and another >20% improvement through improved recovery via Leaching.Roan - here's how that translates:This translates to a 9.5kt-13kt production at Roan from July 2025 depending on grade. The piece which made me sit up and listen was Coetzer speaking on Chingola. The same principle (and technological approach) at Roan would apply to Chingola.Chingola - the Waste Rock projectAssuming all parties reach agreement IRH would be fronting the capital cost for the JV (estimated at $50m), but applying the same method and assuming "above 1.5%" is 1.54% and assuming 24kt from a Roan v2 plant, at a $4,000 cost per tonne equates to a $3,750 per tonne margin. That equals $27m per annum net to JLP.SableNone of the above includes the expanded Sable at 16 000tpa (from 1Q26 - July 2026).We don't precisely know the cost of production at Munkoyo and Project G although I suspect with 3%-4% grades there must be some level of cost economies compared to the FY24 (current) $5,200 per tonne cost of production.How does it all set up for FY26?Assuming Sable "in the next 12 months" comes to passAnnual Report FY2024 - as at June 2024Assuming Roan is operating at 4.5Kt per half year. (9Kt a year)Assuming an $11,000 per tonne copper priceAssuming cost of production drops by around 10% through higher grade processing and higher recoveryAssuming the 30% share of Chingola Waste Rock begins 2H26 so 24Kt for 6 months at 30% share is 3,600 tonnes equivalent.Assuming PGM prices have recovered to a $1,700 basket price.Assuming Chrome prices have fallen but remain at an elevated $90 tonne (for 40% concentrate)Assuming Chrome is now 2.2Mt; PGM production is back to 40Kozs.Obviously quite a lot of assumptions! But all are conceivable and perhaps some could be exceeded as much as undershot so it's not an altogether unrealistic scenario.We do see an Price to EBITDA of just over 1 in that scenario!The P/E meanwhile is 1.8. This would imply a 3X upside minimum to today's share price.So for the patient, JLP may well get its days in the sun. I'm actually quite optimistic to that potential future.Longer term the expansion and scale of handling the vast waste rock of Zambia and beyond almost guarantees a long-term growing trade.But the piece which excites me and which is nowhere in the price is what value can JLP derive from their know how. What know how? JLP have achieved a couple of things no one else appears to have done:First, a successful extraction of metal from waste disregarded as "impossible".Second, a modularisation to scale and concentrate that ore/waste. Success across more than one metal.Third, the build out of a cash-generative operation which appears on the cusp of moving from investment to harvest, and where the future growth lies in scaling in partnership with the likes of IRH having proved the concept of - and profitably proved -RegardsThe Oak BlokeMicro cap and Nano cap holdings might have a higher risk and higher volatility than companies that are traditionally defined as "blue chip"??

[adejuk] 10/11/2024 19:31

btw frog.
leon is a serial dissembler
he may be right and we will all get rich
i wish you well - and me of course!!