Jubilee Metals Share Discussion Threads

[plat hunter] 15/12/2019 19:12

M&A activity here would be very welcome by my book

[plat hunter] 15/12/2019 19:11

In Borough Market if anyone is around and fancies a pint..Here until around 10pm... Haven't drank since May so that'll be long enough

[plat hunter] 14/12/2019 18:29

It would be alot easier for investors and analysts to make projections oif always selling, regardless of the price was an accepted business process.Providing it's in the costs of processing other metals too, much like the chrome then it's always gravy as they say.

[1madmarky] 14/12/2019 17:31

Sleveen- yep, if you are sure the price will rise. Of course you are tieing up cash to do that. Personally I think they will flog it for whatever they can get to help pay for the massive growth rate they are attempting to achieve.

[sleveen] 14/12/2019 16:00

1MM

Could process and store until the V price rises.

[plat hunter] 14/12/2019 13:27

Aces are you really this thick skinned and stupid?Clearly others think you're moron too. The only person you manage to convince is yourself.. You need help; if with nothing else, at least with understanding irony.If you don't like being called stupid, stop addressing people with stupid posts. Alternatively, stick me on filter because outing you for the moron you are will never get old.

[aceshi] 14/12/2019 13:19

Platt, its amazing that you religiously troll almost everything that I post, yet your rebuttals are always derogatory and lacking in valid debate. To quote your regular line "read what I said" "possible flaw in JLPs business model" when on earth did I state that JLP should not continue to bring new projects on line? Where did I say taking 2 years plus to ramp up a project that has say a five year lifespan, cannot be profitable? You are putting words in my mouth, which is a weak and underhanded tactic of debate. The logic of your argument is flawed and meaningless. Even if a 1000 companies have used this model to a profitable outcome, it has absolutely no bearing on what will transpire with company 1001. I have said this before and I stand by it. There comes a time when you have to put cash in the bank, or fund new projects entirely from profits, or your business model is a glorified ponzi scheme.

[1madmarky] 14/12/2019 11:30

Sleveen- would doubt leaving the V in is an option, as it would change the chemical composition at the lead circuit stage .
You would then have to reprocess just to get the V out, which would be extremely expensive .
Best to process it all in one go and return the tailings to an inert state and deliver on our zero emission strategy.

[sleveen] 14/12/2019 08:42

Some commentary on vanadium price from FAR a vanadium miner.

Not that it affects JLP too much as V is more of a bi-product of the Zn and Pb processing.

Edit: It wouldn't surprise me if JLP delayed the V processing and concentrated (pun intended) on Zn & Pb.

Also explains the spike in BMN share price Nov/Dec 2018 to 48p and back down again.

Vanadium prices

The price of vanadium pentoxide has fallen from around $16/lb at the start of 2019 to around $5/lb today. Although the fall was widely forecast, it has fallen further and faster than expected and has impacted the profitability and cash flows of the Company during the year to date, particularly during the period when production has been limited by the implementation of the expansion.

The precipitate fall has been attributed to the initial lack of enforcement by China of their new higher standards for construction steel and by a rapid increase in Chinese vanadium production, stimulated by the exceptionally high prices of 2018 which reached nearly $30/lb. There has also been some substitution of vanadium by niobium. Chinese enforcement is now thought to be much stronger and much of this increase in production and substitution is likely to reverse as prices stabilise at more normal levels. In the longer term the outlook for vanadium demand growth is very strong from its traditional market to steel-makers, putting upwards pressure on prices and necessitating the building of new supply which, other than by Ferro Alloy, is unlikely to happen until prices rise to considerably higher levels than today's. The advent of vanadium redox flow batteries remains a tantalising opportunity for the industry, the roll-out of which was delayed by the unusually high vanadium price in 2018.

The Company continues to use a long-term forecast price of $7.50/lb which is around the historic average and conservatively reflects the cost required to incentivise new production capacity.

That said, the current low prices are not a threat to the Balasausqandiq project which is expected to have the world's lowest cost of production but there has been an impact on the Company's recent cash flows from the existing operation. Raw materials are typically acquired at prices determined as a percentage of the value of the vanadium content at the time of ordering but product sales are priced at the time of delivery to the customer. Owing to long lead times for the delivery of raw materials and the several months it takes for shipments to reach customers, a prolonged period of falling prices means that the prices received are much lower than those used in the raw-material pricing, greatly affecting the Company's operating margin. In the long run, periods of rising and falling prices are likely to even out, but when prices are consistently falling as they have been in 2019, the effect is wholly negative. For these reasons trading so far in 2019 has been disproportionately affected and the Company is not expected to return to profitability until the planned production increases in 2020 have been realised.

The Company's previous forecasts, based on a slower fall in vanadium prices over 2019 and 2020, would have been sufficient to meet the capital expenditure requirements for the completion of the expansion of the existing operation out of operating cash flows but the reduction in vanadium prices, compounded by the timing differences described above, have reduced the cash flows available to the Group in the short term.

[plat hunter] 13/12/2019 19:58

Why on earth do you even bother Aces?You're not bright enough, honestly... I can list half a dozen mining outfits that have grown in exactly the same way over the last 5 years and doubing or even trebling the issuance on the way to ten bagging.Yet you seem to think a company with projects that take 2 years to bring on line and only have 3 years of life should bank the cash and not worry about the security of future cashflow.You're a moron of the highest degree.

[aceshi] 13/12/2019 19:10

PlattTripping over your own two feet again. You just clearly demonstrated the possible flaw in JLPs current business model. And other than regular dilution, the single most significant motivator, for the ever languishing share price

[plat hunter] 13/12/2019 18:24

Tim.. You need to consider the lifespan and the ROI over the product cost.Given the lifespan of individual projects, using debt would be a kin to paying your car insurance off with a credit card. You need margins in the multiples of tens for debt to be a viable proposition for funding growth, and certainly a lot more than the average of 40% that JLP achieve.Does Mr FD have any calculations for how favourable debt would be on a project life of 3 years with 40% gross margin and interest at lets say 10% per annum... I would say don't bother wasting your time, dilution is much better.

[gsg] 13/12/2019 17:53

Tim,

There is no way with JLP's status they could have leveraged 100% dept on project funding. They are getting there. Maybe after the next deal, they'll have a strong enough balance sheet to take on projects with 100% dept.

Also, they have a top financial guy who they employed as of last September, however he sits just below board level (at the mo).

[niloc4] 13/12/2019 14:29

Takeover talks coming soon. Metals still moving nicely.

[mikebolle1] 13/12/2019 13:28

JLP is first growing horizontally before vertically. That way the growth is more sustainable over a longer period.

[goingforarun] 13/12/2019 13:14

Plat, would love to hit 6p, thought 5p was on before the placing! Hey, next time!

[garthgreyling1] 13/12/2019 12:33

Thanks for the input Plat.....all added to my ongoing investor education that still seems to have a loooooong way to go:)

[plat hunter] 13/12/2019 12:16

You won't go too far wrong imo Gary.. Ignore the noise, dilution here is better than debt. As there is no debt (well 8% debt to NAV ration is minuscule), all earnings will either be used for growth or returned to investors.

In the mean time don't be too surprised if we hit 6p and then another placing comes in at 5p to peg us back... I expect this pattern to continue until we have earnings north of 250 million a year. (2 billion shares in issue for a mid cap is nothing, we need at least double that)

I have traded here previously but now I just hold tight. For me the share price volatility is netted off by the spread and the risk over the return.. I don't see the point of selling at 4.5 (on the placing news) to get back in at 3.9 when a project update or accretive placing could land at any time. I'm now just sitting back and enjoying the story.

[garthgreyling1] 13/12/2019 12:01

Thanks Plat, I appreciate the advice, which I sense is genuine....somehow I'm also to blame for an element of greed on my part. I am mid 40s so I smell the growth carrot on AIM and somehow believe I have the time to deal with mistakes in my portfolio. I have been burnt quite badly over the last few years on AIM especially since a lot of the liquidity has left afetr Woodford etc ...(Ive also been part of some momentary explosions in price, ZIOC, PYC etc)I am going to hang on to Jubilee...the fundamentals do seem to show some serious value is near. I just hope the BOD will allow the share price to grow and retrace a little on the issuance of more equity - there should hopefully at some point be a balance in growth by means of dilution and organic growth.Since AIM has taken such a beating I am hoping that my thesis turns true in that there is some genuine value that exists on AIM which is currently very cheap...Jubilee maybe being one of them. It only takes the success of one or two stocks in the growth trajectory to either rectify all my losses or at least pale the comparisons in my value portfolio....Good luck to all....

[plat hunter] 13/12/2019 11:23

Is AIM really your thing in retrospect then... There's rarely value stories on AIM tbh, growth stories yes but value investments are generally for more established companies that don't need the level of investment or debt that growth companies need.Perhaps sell now for a profit and move on to the 250 and higher. Most of my portfolio is blue chip and ETF's, the value as you call it, is easier and safer to guess.

[garthgreyling1] 13/12/2019 11:03

C'est la vie Plat.....investing in this lot at 3.5p some 5 years ago was not a very wise decision. I will know better in the future what type of BOD and company I expect shareholder growth in.Suffice to say I dont have your levels of genius to play the volatility game so Im only interested in value investing.

[plat hunter] 13/12/2019 10:02

More redolent of the chart action to me.I did say we could see 3.9 if the chart is anything to go by, couple more months at this level will bring the golden cross back in to play, which concidently will be the same period that we can expect both the six monthly and project updates.If I was Leon i'd be rinsing out the whinging PI's too, they expect everything yesterday, do not understand price volatility or the schematics of business.Meanwhile they keep topping up at price peaks then complain when they haven't multibagged the next day.The likes of few to remain unnamed for now are nothing but uneducated bores.