Jpmorgan Russian Securit... Share Discussion Threads

[loganair] 17/4/2015 10:01

Consolidated sales up 24.6% YoY. Dixy Group (JRS 9th Largest Investment) released a reasonably good trading update for March yesterday, with consolidated revenues up 24.6% YoY to RUB22.5 bln ($374 mln). Revenue growth, however, was slower than in February, when group sales were up 28.5% YoY. The slowdown reflected a decline in food inflation and was similar to the dynamics seen at Magnit (JRS 2nd Largest Investment) but contrasted with the dynamics of X5 Retail Group), whose revenue growth accelerated throughout the first quarter. Dixy's flagship chain of neighborhood stores once again posted the fastest growth of all the group's store formats, with sales up 28.2% YoY to RUB18.1 bln ($300 mln). The performance of the Victoria and MegaMart divisions was less impressive, with sales up just 13.6% YoY to RUB2.9 bln ($48 mln) and 8.7% YoY to RUB1.6 bln ($26 mln), respectively.

[richwebster1492] 16/4/2015 23:06

Some interesting articles on the internet (around 6th April) following Jim Rogers' talk at a recent investors conference in Russia. This is one of them:

[richwebster1492] 16/4/2015 22:54

Juju44 also have a look at tracker fund (XMRC)

[loganair] 16/4/2015 13:51

Industry shrinks just 0.4% YoY in 1Q15 - Industrial production above expectations ... Yesterday Rosstat reported that industrial production grew 10.7% MoM, but shrank 0.6% YoY in March after contracting 1.6% YoY in February. The YoY growth figure was above market consensus (negative 2.6% YoY according to Interfax) and much better than our forecast. Seasonally adjusted, industry grew 0.4% MoM after shrinking 0.7% MoM in February. Thus, industry shrank 0.4% YoY in 1Q15.



Strong ruble pushes Russian market higher again. The Russian market rallied yesterday as the dollar-denominated RTS Index gained 3.6% and the ruble-denominated MICEX Index added 1.8%, driven by a strengthening ruble and advancing oil.

It seems that the appreciation of the ruble in 1Q15 has supported industry.

[quepassa] 16/4/2015 08:55

Triple Whammy?

1. Improving oil prices
2. Easing of Russian political concerns
3. Vastly stronger rouble.


Have over last few days invested in JRS.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[loganair] 15/4/2015 10:21

I understand the only Investment Trust that is a purely a play on Russia is JRS.

Unit Trusts - Neptune Russia and Greater Russia or Aurora Russia.

[juju44] 15/4/2015 09:56

anyone got a good Russian fund suggestion - tia

[loganair] 15/4/2015 09:52

Plans to commit capacity to China, build Turkish Stream without EU consent. Gazprom’s CEO Alexei Miller said yesterday that Gazprom may eventually sell as much as 100 bcm of gas per annum from West Siberian fields to Asian markets. This follows Miller’s warning on Monday that Gazprom may commit its existing spare capacity to other markets if Europe blocks new pipelines bypassing Ukraine. Miller also said yesterday that Gazprom may build the Turkish Stream pipeline up to the EU border and wait until EU demand emerges. According to Miller, Gazprom will increase its 2015 capex plan by at least $4 bln (RUB208 bln at RUB52/$) to more than RUB1 tln ($20 bln), a 25% addition.

[loganair] 14/4/2015 09:52

Ruble strength again inspires optimism in Russian equities.

The ruble will continue to determine the performance of the Russian market.

[loganair] 12/4/2015 11:13

by Daniel Grote: And it's Russia that has led the running so far. It's up nearly 50% since January, and gained 10% in just the last five days. Some stability in the oil price - which has remained closer to $60 a barrel than $50 since it rallied at the end of January - has helped, not least for the battered rouble. Oil's mini rally at the start of the year kicked off a recovery in Russia's currency, which has amplified returns for sterling investors.

[loganair] 10/4/2015 14:16

Sales growth slightly slower, but still strong in March - Sales grew 30% YoY in March, slower than a month ago. Magnit (JRS 2nd Largest Investment) released a strong March trading update yesterday. Revenues rose 30.4% YoY to RUB78.0 bln ($1.3 bln), a 3.6 ppt MoM slowdown in revenue growth. However, the slowdown was due in part to a decline in food inflation, which decreased to 1.6% MoM in March from 3.3% MoM in February. Sales at Magnit's convenience stores were up 26.7% YoY to RUB57.8 bln ($960 mln), while hypermarket sales rose 26.9% YoY to RUB14.0 bln ($232 mln) and Magnit family stores sales grew 102.5% YoY to RUB3.5 bln ($57 mln).

Considering what's going on in Russia at the moment and how in the West they're being told how hard the average Russian and the Russian economy is being hit - 30% YoY growth rate isn't at all bad going.

In reality every things going just fine here in Russia, just a few lumps and bumps along the road...

The current account surplus decreased to $23.5 bln in 1Q15 from $25.9 bln in 1Q14 ...not much of a fall considering the Western sanctions...

And rouble continued its strong gains against DM currencies adding around 3% by the close of the Russian stock market, means since the beginning of the year the rouble has gained nearly 25% against the US dollar and more than 55% since 16th December, dubbed ‘Black Tuesday’, when the rouble bottomed out against the dollar at nearly 80 roubles.

Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov agrees that Russia’s over-dependence on oil is over. He said "The dutch disease is over. The rouble is no longer overvalued in real terms, something that was caused by the excessive use of volatile oil and gas revenues.”

[loganair] 09/4/2015 17:59

MOSCOW – Companies doing business in Russia have been on a roller coaster ride for the last year. The combination of Western sanctions, a weakened currency and continued geopolitical uncertainty have threatened even the most robust of balance sheets. Yet amid these headline-grabbing harbingers of new challenges in Russia’s business environment, one seems to have gone largely overlooked: last September, Russian lawmakers passed unprecedented changes to their country’s corporate legislation. The aim was to update business legal frameworks and to extend additional protections to minority corporate stakeholders.

By far the most significant – and the least noticed – effects of the legislative changes, however, will be in their impact on Russian businesses’ minority shareholders. Minority participants in Russian businesses have often been getting short shrift by their majority counterparts. As recently as October 2013, state-owned Russian oil company Rosneft was able to buy out minority shareholders of TNK-BP at a price widely reported to be 20-30% below market value. Most of the new law’s provisions were explicitly motivated by lawmakers’ desire to improve the Russian business environment by guaranteeing minority participants that they will not be bullied out of a company, have their stakes unwittingly diluted into nothing, or be forced to witness their company pilfered by its new owners following a hostile takeover.

[anony mous] 09/4/2015 13:03

Thanks logan.Yes that's fair.Bid was down at 3.00 today for 15mins.Maybe a glitch or Putin farted. Lol.

[loganair] 09/4/2015 12:05

AM - I'm not one for making share price predictions other than in the long term I think it will be a very profitable investment paying good dividends.

On the JRS threads as I do on others I post both positive and negative comments and articles on current situations for the information of all and to induce 'looked well in to' dialogue.

What happened there? possibly somebody pushed the wrong button on their trading screen or could be to do with the Greek Prime Minster being in Russia at the moment and having a chat with Putin...

[anony mous] 09/4/2015 11:04

What happened there ?

[anony mous] 09/4/2015 11:00

loganWhat is your view on the share price short.medium term please ?

[loganair] 09/4/2015 09:11

Slump in Russia’s economy deepens According to Rosstat, all key sectors of Russia’s economy contracted in February, apart from agriculture, which grew 3.2% YoY. Industrial growth turned negative as the contraction in manufacturing intensified, while resource extraction decelerated to negligible 0.1% YoY growth. Capital investment dropped 6.5% YoY after falling 6.3% YoY in January. We believe that investment was supported to some extent by the drop in uncertainty in financial markets in February. Nonetheless, construction shrank 3.1% YoY due to weak investment activity. The slump in retail trade intensified as it contracted 7.7% YoY in February after shrinking 4.5% YoY in January. Consumer demand was weak due to the sharp drop in real wages, which contracted 9.9% YoY in February. Unemployment grew to 5.8%, 1 ppt above the low of August 2014. We estimate that Russia’s economy contracted 3.5% YoY in February, while the Economy Ministry has a more optimistic estimate of a contraction of 2.3% YoY.

[loganair] 08/4/2015 09:36

Weaker oil may cool Russian market. The RTS index closed flat after a highly volatile trading session yesterday. It seems that some investors decided to lock in profit from last week’s sharp rise in the market. Despite the weaker Brent futures during trading yesterday, the ruble continued to strengthen, to below RUB55/$. This may be in reaction to CBR Chair Elvira Nabiullina’s statement yesterday that the bank will rely on interest rate regulation rather than QE.

[loganair] 08/4/2015 09:33

Sistema use to be JRS 7th Largest Investment before the share price completely fell out of bed to a low of under 10 roubles per share. However JRS retained it´s holding in Sistema. Over the past few months Sistema´s share price has over doubled.

Settling into the new normal; the worst has passed, still plenty of upside - Biggest risks seem to have subsided. Since AFK Sistema (SSA LI – Buy) has already returned its stake in Bashneft to the state, the market believes the chances of the government filing further claims against the company regarding Bashneft are minimal, and that the company has more or less returned to normal operating mode. However, changes in strategy and the investment portfolio are inevitable. Going forward, the market expects the company to optimize its portfolio to focus on assets which are already generating cash and those with strong prospects in the current economic environment (including the forestry unit and children's retailer Detsky Mir), and to get rid of its problematic and less important assets. While the market suspects AFK Sistema will be open to further acquisitions, it will likely be more selective, keeping its purchases to a minimum. MTS, which has once again become Sistema’s single core asset, is in relatively good operating shape and should be able to continue paying out reasonable dividends to the corporate centre. Additionally, Sistema recently reached a settlement with Ural-Invest regarding the damages the fund was ordered to pay to Sistema for the Bashneft case.

[anony mous] 07/4/2015 15:58

Yes. Nice rise. Over 4.00 looking likely very soon.

[its the oxman] 07/4/2015 15:09

Nice to see my these recovering. Plan to hold long term here. Reckon these will be well over 400p before the year end - provided Mr Putin doesn't invade Europe.

[loganair] 04/4/2015 09:53

By Alan Brierley of Canaccord Genuity- JPMorgan Russian Securities (JRS): Brierley upgraded the £180 million single country fund last summer before the sudden collapse in the oil price hit the Russian stock markets and its shares, although this year the shares have bounced back 28%. Although his timing was unfortunate, the analyst said the trust was an opportunity for investors prepared to brave one of the world’s cheapest stock markets. There are undoubted headwinds facing Russia but in the words of Sir John Templeton, bull-markets are born on pessimism. There is certainly no shortage of that,’ he said.

[anony mous] 02/4/2015 16:41

Just bought in today. A decent holding.

[loganair] 02/4/2015 14:33

JP Morgan - “The lack of negative news headlines surrounding geopolitical tensions in Ukraine has helped reduce the risk premia demanded by locals and foreign investors for Russian assets”.

“This helps explain the relative stability of RUB even after the CBR’s rate cuts this year (by 300bp)”.

“More broadly, in our framework for analyzing the RUB, we have always maintained that in the absence of a disorderly demand for FX from locals, the RUB screened undervalued on most metrics”.

“We argued for example that corporates have enough FX assets to finance their FX liabilities over the next year and that the real risk to the RUB was (and continues to be) from a deterioration in locals’ sentiment towards the currency, prompting hoarding of FX by corporates and dollarization by households”.

“This deterioration in sentiment may be triggered by a more aggressive fall in oil or further limits on corporate access to the financial markets. In the absence of these factors however then the improvement in Russia’s C/A given the REER depreciation and compression in domestic demand is likely to supply the economy with enough FX over the medium run to keep the currency stable”.

“Overall, with continued uncertainty over both the direction of oil in the short term and geopolitical tensions, as well as likely further rate cuts from the CBR, we prefer to remain neutral RUB for now”.