Jpmorgan Chinese Investm... Share Discussion Threads

[markth] 01/8/2005 14:16

I did some research into discounts. This is a snapshot of the sector Far East excluding Japan.



As you can see JMC has a much higher premium than the others, even its better performing stablemate JII.

The only trusts trading at premiums tend to deal in Property right now.

The MMs may well be at it here. However this trust is a small fish, so they aint going to retire on the proceeds. But hey who cares, I am making money ;-)

[temelco] 01/8/2005 14:07

I think the share issuance over the last few days has been to the MMs - ie they are pushing the price on and making sales and then picking up the required stock from the company.
If you look at today's trades, the touch is 77.5 -78.0 - but someone sold 8,000 odd and only got 77.25. This would suggest to me they are actively discouraging sales in order to expand the share base. Bet they do another 250k or so within a day or two.

[temelco] 01/8/2005 13:28

approaching 10% premium - that must be too much. NAV only 71.7p

[grippa] 29/7/2005 11:18

temelco...thanks for your opinion.

[temelco] 29/7/2005 09:54

Wow.475,000 issued at 77p. They are playing this game really well. They have added about .5p to Nav just by issuing the shares over the last week or so. I think we can assume that whatever the premium we should NOT be thinking of getting out and back in again. The Directors are clearly determined not to let the premium get too far ahead so as to keep the existing shareholders in and to expand their business. I think this is beginning to look like a top quality business which,as long as China etc doesn't fall apart, will be v. rewarding in future years. DYOR.

[temelco] 28/7/2005 13:09

As recently as 28th June, the NAV was 66.odd and the shareprice to buy 64.5

[temelco] 28/7/2005 13:01

I think the issue is, is there going to remain a premium to NAV? In theory the correct position is that we should all sell out now at a premium wait for the discount to reappear and then buy back in ( more shares than before) However, if the premium is going to remain, and over the life of this fund there has often been a premium of 3-7%, then we should just hang in there. But why one should BUY at a premium slightly escapes me.
On a completely separate note, it is refreshing to find a thread which is sticking to the matter in hand - not going off into non-company matters.

[markth] 28/7/2005 12:55

I'm quite happy for the purchasers of this new equity to add to the NAV of the fund, long may it continue ;0)

[temelco] 28/7/2005 11:57

See? Another 100k at 76 odd p. AND NAV down again today

[tubigrip] 27/7/2005 17:19

floating of the currency is likely to reduce company earnings - thats the whole point of it isnt it? So unless there is some currency hedging here how is it objectively positive for company earnings in the short term?

[temelco] 27/7/2005 12:52

Actually, the present price does not make any sense. The NAV is down a bit today ( so much for the floating exchange) and the price is up again. Betcha another 100,000 or so gets outed within a couple of days. Premium looks to be about 6 % which is quite high

[markth] 27/7/2005 12:28

Click that button above that says "All Messages" and then read posts 30 and 32.

[jhurst] 27/7/2005 11:44

None of you noticed China has floated its currency in the last week instead of it being pegged against the dollar? What do you think this will do for chinese co. earnings? They may go much further yet!

[markth] 26/7/2005 15:25

Tem's right. The main stocks in which JMC is invested have been largely flat the last few months. For the rise to be earned (never mind sustainable), the NAV has to go up. If not we will see a correction.

[temelco] 26/7/2005 14:38

I would be happier if it levelled off at this price and the NAV caught up a bit. I think it is getting a bit ahead of itself ( just because China is "in"). That said the NAV has done much better over the last few months than either the benchmark or the market generally

[grippa] 26/7/2005 13:10

temelco...I think the price will strenghten too, remember the share price has'nt really done anything over the last year and a bit, so even though we are up recently, longer term it looks like we are just getting started. IMO

[temelco] 26/7/2005 12:58

About 3% of the company has traded over the last 2 weeks - as opposed to about .03% usually.

[temelco] 26/7/2005 12:33

Hm another 100,000 at 76p - makes me think they believe the price will strengthen and are therefore keeping it tight and going to issue at steadily increasing prices.

[temelco] 25/7/2005 16:28

Good volume though

[temelco] 25/7/2005 16:26

Can't help but feel these are rapidly approaching a "sell". They are well over NAV and on past performance the price usually slips to a discount after a placing.

[markth] 25/7/2005 12:54

With only 60-odd million out there, too large a chunk would depress the price and might have to be issued at a discount to ensure takeup. I'm happy to see them drip-fed out bit by bit.

[temelco] 25/7/2005 12:50

Only issued 150,000 shares at 74.5. I would have thought they would have done more, as they have another 4 million or so they can issue.

[temelco] 22/7/2005 11:42

NAV 71p price 75p. Betcha they issue another few hundred thousand shares any minute now.

[markth] 22/7/2005 11:30

This fund factsheet here suggests that the fund is underweight financials and overweight China (which sounds good to me) as of the end of May.

[markth] 22/7/2005 11:24

The above tables (from trustnet.com) don't copy over too well. But they show what JMC is invested in.

Some 40%-odd of the fund is invested in the top 10 holdings, which are mostly large caps. So one might expect this to "track" the relevant indexes to a certain extent. The question is, which index - China, Hong Kong, Taiwan?

Take a look here where I have plotted the Hang Seng against the Shanghai B-share index. The latter has fallen 32% in the year to date, while the former has appreciated by 2%.

This illustrates the difficulty this fund faces, while one might have a view on these markets, there is no guarantee about what the fund will invest in. It's really a stock pickers fund with a broad mandate per its objective : "Long term capital growth by investment in 'Greater China' companies. Invests in companies which are quoted on the stock exchanges of China and Taiwan or which derive a substantial part of their revenues or profits from these territories"

Anyway DYOR folks and don't believe all you read.