Jpmorgan Chinese Investm... Share Discussion Threads

[loganair] 05/2/2020 20:34

I have set up a new thread under the ticker JCGI if other posters would like to also make change over.

[deadly] 05/2/2020 18:01

Name and ticker changed: JCGI

[loganair] 27/1/2020 10:17

The developing markets of China and India will make up 35 percent of global gross domestic product (GDP) by 2060, nearing the US and European nations' combined share, according to the Japan Center for Economic Research.

The Tokyo-based think tank says China's share of the world's economy will be about 20 percent and India's nearly 16 percent, up from 17 percent and four percent in 2019, respectively.

The combined share of the United States and European economies will fall from over 50 percent in 2019 to 38 percent in 2060, said the report. European nations will have their collective share of GDP at a level slightly above India in 2060, but their proportion of global GDP will have fallen significantly.

Meanwhile Japan, once the world's second-largest economy in the 20th century, will become a smaller, weaker player. Its share of global GDP is predicted to fall to three percent in 2060 from six percent last year.

[loganair] 14/1/2020 10:18

Over next 5 years, China is going to prioritize stabilizing its economy rather than GDP growth.

[davvero] 17/12/2019 10:57

@loganair.... thanks.... I have no memory where I collected the GM info below from.... Is it right - ?...............

Annual General Meeting
This year's Annual General Meeting will be held on Friday, 17th January 2020 at 12.30 p.m. at 60 Victoria Embankment, London EC4Y 0JP.
As in previous years, in addition to the formal part of the meeting there will be a presentation from the Investment Managers who will answer questions on the portfolio and investment performance. There will also be an opportunity to meet the Board and representatives of JPMorgan Asset Management after the meeting.
If you have any detailed or technical questions, it would be helpful if you could raise these in advance of the meeting with the Company Secretary at 60 Victoria Embankment, London EC4Y 0JP. Alternatively, questions may be submitted via the Company's website (www.jpmjapanese.co.uk).
Shareholders who are unable to attend the AGM are encouraged to use their proxy votes. Proxy votes may be lodged electronically, whether shares are held through CREST or in certificate form, and full details are set out on the form of proxy.
I look forward to welcoming as many of you as possible to this meeting."......

[loganair] 16/12/2019 19:11

In a bid to broaden the Company's investor base and so reduce the discount over the longer term, the Board is proposing to pay an annual dividend of 4% per annum in the future, payable in four quarterly instalments. In order to pay this, any shortfall on the dividend income received from the underlying investments of the portfolio will be paid out of the capital growth of the portfolio. The first two quarterly payments of 1% each will be made in June and September 2020, based on the NAV as at 31st March 2020.

[loganair] 16/12/2019 19:08

A dividend of 2.5 pence per share will be paid on 12th February 2020 to shareholders on the register at the close of business on 27th December 2019. The ex dividend date is 24th December 2019.

[davvero] 16/12/2019 15:15

anyone knows wen is the ex-dividend date please??

[loganair] 12/12/2019 15:00

Stefano Amato, head of multi asset solutions, Santander Asset Management UK
Emerging Market equities

Our favourite investment theme at the moment are Emerging Markets equities, as they stand to benefit from long-term trends which are already in progress and virtually inexorable.

Asia (where EM equity indices are concentrated) today already hosts 60% of humans, and – given population trends – is likely going to forever be home to more people than the rest of the world combined. This size advantage should create favourable conditions for local companies towards economies of scale and technological leadership that can then be leveraged worldwide.

Additionally, 90% of millennials – the largest generational cohort, entering their peak spending years just now – reside in Emerging Markets, contributing to the global rise of the middle class from 3.2 billion people in 2020 to 4.9 billion in 2030, and accounting for a projected ~$30 trillion growth in middle-class consumption.

Finally, thanks to late-mover advantage, many EM countries are already leapfrogging over obsolete technologies in key areas like Energy, Fintech and e-commerce – creating unprecedented opportunities for growth.

[loganair] 11/12/2019 13:06

This is exactly what JP Morgan did with their Asian Fund (JAI) a few years back, paying a dividend of 4% of Nav per year and paying a dividend 4 times per year, giving a 300% increase in the dividend yield.

The only difference is JAI did not change their name.

What seems to me to be happening is, as interest rates are so low to negative JP Morgan are hoping to attract more investors to buy in rather then to sell out thereby increasing the share price more than would have otherwise been the case.

What JP Morgan also seem to be doing is to make JMC more like a pension annuity, except at the end of the day the capital always remains the investors instead of the annuity being lost when the person sadly passes on.

[nk104] 11/12/2019 12:17

4 December saw a change in the distribution policy - the company will aim to pay out 4 per cent of NAV on the last day of the preceding financial year.

Given the 30 September year-end this will be a slow burner, but given the discount that means a dividend that would currently be 14.25p a year. I think this might lead the discount to narrow.

[loganair] 28/11/2019 15:40

Goldman sachs believes at least the first stage of a US-China trade deal is likely to be completed, as the White House faces the political imperative of an economic following wind in an election year.

‘The Phase 1 agreement—which looks likely to be signed in coming weeks—should remove the US threat of a 15% tariff on roughly $150 billion in imports from China currently scheduled for 15 December.

‘The trade war is currently subtracting about 0.4pp from quarterly annualized growth in the US and 0.6pp in China.

‘Although the composition of this drag differs between the two countries, our expectation of a partial rollback implies that both should enjoy a “subtraction of negatives” as this drag on growth abate.’

[loganair] 01/10/2019 10:19

Being reported that trade war between USA and China could go on for the next 10 years.

What is happening in Hong Kong is more serious and important for China than their trade war with the USA.

[loganair] 16/8/2019 11:53

Is It important that the 1st October is the 70th Anniversary of the Peoples Republic of China???

I know on their 100 Ann they want to have taken over from the USA as the worlds reserve currency - at least that is their goal.

[loganair] 08/3/2019 22:22

Mobius - China: Concerns regarding private and public sector debt, and the slowdown in growth and increase in costs, are valid. However, we believe that China has the means to successfully manage its economic transition towards greater consumption and higher value industrial output. Recent initiatives to stimulate the economy, including the investment in logistics and infrastructure, attracting high-tech investments and facilitating R&D spending, all point towards a competent and credible policy mix to deal with the transition. It won’t happen overnight, but the Chinese are true long-term thinkers.

[loganair] 15/1/2019 15:58

JP Morgan’s global equity strategists are positive on emerging markets versus developed markets this year, but are ‘neutral’; on China whereas they prefer Brazil, Chile, Russia and Indonesia. In addition the analysts say global emerging markets are cheap, trading at lower price-to-earnings ratios than in their last bear market in 2015-16.

[cascudi] 05/9/2018 14:08

Net asset has increased

[loganair] 03/6/2018 10:37

Mark Mobius tilts towards China, South Korea and is also bullish on Brazil and Russia where consumer Discretionary goods and services benefiting from domestic consumption growth in these countries.

"The opportunities are incredible for the right investment."

He remains optimistic in the emerging markets of Vietnam, China and India and believes we're going to see lot's of opportunities in these markets down the road especially India has got tremendous opportunities.

Mobius also small- and mid-size mainland Chinese companies public in Hong Kong. Fintech is a focus area, as is firms that assist traditional corporations to better deploy internet technologies. "That's where the growth opportunities are," he said.

"China is now a huge market, and it's growing because we are now getting more and more access," he said. “With the A-share market coming into the availability of foreign investors, the opportunities are incredible”.


He also says he expects a 30% correction in the US market as a result of massive out flows from ETF's. Currently global ETF stock assets stand at $4.7 trillion.

[loganair] 25/5/2018 21:57

As Emerging Markets Sell Off, the Biggest One's Doing Fine by Richard Frost and Tian Chen:


Within a chorus of warnings about the threats facing emerging markets, little is being said about the largest of them all.

And with everything else that’s going on, why would you worry about China? Stocks are up this month in Shanghai, the yuan is at a two-year high against a basket of peers, and bonds are about as prized relative to Treasuries as they’ve been since 2016. A similar picture exists outside of financial assets, with the economy growing at a steady clip and domestic demand supporting imports -- including from emerging peers.

That’s the sort of stability that’s been hard to come by in some developing markets, where even superfan Mark Mobius sees more pain to come.

Yet the country isn’t immune to what’s afflicting investors from Buenos Aires to Ankara. The People’s Bank of China has been following the Federal Reserve (albeit at a slower pace) with higher interest rates; a deleveraging campaign is another form of tightening that risks slower growth and more corporate defaults; and an unpredictable trade war with the U.S. poses a threat to exports and economic confidence.

“China’s financial markets are enjoying support from strong fundamentals and they are not that sensitive to global volatility," said Shen Jianguang, chief Asia economist at Mizuho Securities in Hong Kong. “The biggest latent risk to the markets is the trade war, which I don’t think is going to be simple to resolve."

[loganair] 09/4/2018 23:32

Hermes - China a deep rich market,a great place to be long term over the next 20 years.

Chinese government most probably the most solvent government in the world and Chinese banks are all deposit backed.

Russia, Brazil and Peru good to be in at the moment because of where we are in the commodity cycle. These markets will go up and down more than the average market because they are more emotional markets.

Sberbank is growing and adding value and wealth.

India - got some good companies, however has serious structural problems and bureaucracy.

[loganair] 24/3/2018 11:11

Great expectations by Marina Gerner:

So what is the outlook for the BRICS? Stammers says that, ultimately, China and India are looking to become leading global providers of goods and services, so they make things. In contrast, Russia and Brazil are expected to become the global giants in commodities, so they provide the basic raw materials needed to make those things.

Paul McNamara, an investment director and lead manager on emerging market bond, currency and hedge fund strategies at GAM, says: ‘China and India matter a lot; the other two are secondary.’ All the BRICS countries face different obstacles. ‘Russia is crippled by dysfunctional institutions and corruption, but Brazil is slightly better off,’ comments McNamara. Redwood says Russia has ‘suffered a setback from the lower oil price, which has hit its export earnings and tax revenues, and from Western actions, which have made some trade and transactions more difficult’.

Redwood observes that Brazil has been through a bad political and economic crisis, with recession, high inflation and difficult corruption problems forcing changes of government. He says: ‘There is now some hope of recovery, but there remain deep-seated economic and political problems to resolve fully.’ South Africa too has been suffering from political instability and failing economic policies. ‘Future sustained progress in both Brazil and South Africa will need stable reform-oriented governments that can shake off the problems of the past,’ he adds.

India has become the poster child for reform-led recovery in emerging markets, argues James Penny, senior investment manager at TAM Asset Management. ‘With the appointment of prime minster Modi, the country has been put on a path of steep and deep economic and government reform to bring its economy and vast middle-class population to the forefront in the modern market.’

‘India has scope to become one of the world’s largest economies, but it still has a lot further to go to increase incomes per head.’ Moreover, South Africa, Russia and to some extent Brazil rely on mining and the production of oil and commodities, whereas China and India are more dependent on imports of raw materials.

Dominant China:

However, Penny says the biggest and, on the global stage, the loudest of the BRICS nations remains China. The country continues to make headlines speculating about whether its economy could suffer a ‘hard landing’ in the face of its highly leveraged corporate sector and a fall in GDP to 6 per cent. But he is keen to put these figures in context: ‘Let’s be clear here,’ he says. ‘The US is struggling to find 4 per cent GDP growth, the UK is looking at 1.5 per cent, and the world is worrying about a Chinese slowdown to 6 per cent GDP growth?’

-China, not India, will dominate future Asian growth:

The growth rates of the BRICS economies, with the possible exception of India’s, over the next 10 years is likely to be about half that of the previous decade, according to Smith. India’s and China’s shares of global GDP growth will probably be smaller, but the countries will remain dominant.

‘China will remain the largest [BRICS] economy and should continue to command investors’ attention,’ he says. ‘But if India opens up and reforms, investors should begin to devote more of their attention to the subcontinent.’ That said, he points out that, given the relative size of the two economies today, it would still take more than 30 years for India’s GDP to exceed China’s, even if India achieves all its reform goals and China achieves few of its aims.

Ultimately, the strength of the BRICS as an investment proposition is their very diversity, argues Ballard. ‘They are so different that they provide an element of diversification beneficial for any long term investor.’

[loganair] 27/12/2017 13:18

The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) suggests China’s economy is set to overtake the US with Asia’s major economies to continue moving up in the list in 2018 and beyond.

India is expected to become the world's third-biggest economy in dollar terms, moving aside its former colonial master Britain along with France. India will reportedly advance to third place by 2027, overtaking Germany.

According to the World Economic League Table, published by the London-based think tank, the four largest economies in 15 years are predicted to be China, the US, India, and Japan.

By 2032, South Korea and Indonesia are projected to enter the top ten of the world’s largest economies, pushing out G7 countries Italy and Canada.

In fourteen years, three of the four largest economies will be Asian - China, India, and Japan, according to the CEBR. The analysts also said that India’s growth will continue with the country to take the top spot in the second half of the century.

Earlier this year, the US consulting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers said China would dominate the global economy by 2050. At the same time, IMF analysts expect India to overtake the UK and Germany as early as 2022.

[ny boy] 06/12/2017 21:01

I think sellers are coming into the market, the great unwind could well be underway, toppy & bubbles everywhere markets. Will be interesting to see where we are by March ‘18

[pjw956] 06/12/2017 20:52

getting interesting again

[pjw956] 04/12/2017 19:27

bit of a tumble today ... may need to top up soon