Jpmorgan Russian Securit... Share Discussion Threads

[loganair] 12/4/2018 09:35

QP - Agreed.

[loganair] 12/4/2018 09:29

Often when the sentiment is at its lowest is the time to buy.

When there is blood in the streets and others are panicking, it is time to keep your head and buy cheap assets that these other people are giving away to you.

[loganair] 12/4/2018 08:44

The Western press saying that due to the drop in the rouble exchange rate the Russian Central Bank will soon have to start raising interest rates to defend the rouble which will stifle the Russian economy.

All I can say is rubbish as before the rouble was trading at 55 roubles to the US dollar, which was far to strong for Russia, then it fell to 64 to the US dollar now it has risen to 61.5 to the dollar.

The Russian Central Bank has been saying for a couple of years they want the rouble to trade at 60 to the US dollar.

If fact the Russian exchequer is very pleased with the continued rise in the price of oil in US dollars and even more so in roubles as the governments budget is now in surplus.

The US sanctions are just moving the US from the sphere of influence as Russia is just turning more and more towards China and trading in local currencies.

Trump looks very, very short term which is bad for America.

[its the oxman] 11/4/2018 13:16

A steadily increasing oil price presumably very helpful for Russia oil cos eps.

[loganair] 11/4/2018 09:45

In the past two days, the Russian stock market has made up 7% of the 11% it lost on Monday.

[loganair] 10/4/2018 14:29

RTS now up 4.5% and none in negative territory.

Some of the companies that JRS hold are now up over 7%.

Sberbank which is 18% of JRS is up 2.6%.

[loganair] 10/4/2018 12:35

Saudi Arabia are targeting $80 oil.

This is good positive news for Russia as their budget is based on $45 oil. $65 oil means Russia has a balanced budget.

[loganair] 10/4/2018 11:56

The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) said on Tuesday it did not see any risks to the country’s financial stability. According to CBR head Elvira Nabiullina.

At first there is increased volatility and uncertainty for investors, yet consequences are unclear. It takes time for the financial sphere and the economy to adapt,” Nabiullina explained.

She added that the floating ruble is one of the “shock absorbers.”

[montyhedge] 10/4/2018 11:41

I would have thought this, one of the best shorts on Russia.

[loganair] 10/4/2018 11:31

The Kremlin is considering the creation of special offshore zones in Russia to encourage the country's wealthiest to repatriate their assets.

Those wishing to bring money back to Russia will be able to do this quickly and without incurring taxes, officials say. The project allows foreign structures to be transferred to Russia from other countries, including offshore ones, preserving their legal form.

Taxes will be levied only on income received in Russia, and incomes received outside Russia will not be taxed It offers a simple business registration, and a convenient legal regime.

Because Russia has Putin, when any thing happens they are able to move very quickly.

[quepassa] 10/4/2018 11:30

NAV as at yesterday's close had fallen to 540p from Friday's NAV of 608.7


The JRS NAV fell by 68.7pence or 11.3% yesterday.

Today's Discount-to-NAV is 17%.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[loganair] 10/4/2018 11:24

I do not think it is a price worth paying, to possibly put 100,000 relatively poor workers out of a job and unable to feed their families.

These oligarchs have had their assets frozen in America. Why not just take them away altogether and give them to charities to use the income from these assets.

[its the oxman] 10/4/2018 11:18

Harsh on ordinary workers. But probably a price worth paying to make it clear using chemical weapons to kill is unacceptable behaviour. The west has no choice but to show there is a line in the sand. Hopefully Putin will step back from totally wrecking his international reputation.

[loganair] 10/4/2018 09:38

Are American sanctions against RUSAL right?

If the company goes under because of these sanctions up to 100,000 people may lose their jobs which seems to me to be unfair and unreasonable for the US government to do.

[loganair] 10/4/2018 09:27

Surprise JRS falling this morning as the Russian market is 2% up. Maybe because even though many of JRS holdings are up, Sberbank is 6% down today.

[loganair] 09/4/2018 23:30

Hermes - China a deep rich market,a great place to be long term over the next 20 years.

Chinese government most probably the most solvent government in the world and Chinese banks are all deposit backed.

Russia, Brazil and Peru good to be in at the moment because of where we are in the commodity cycle. These markets will go up and down more than the average market because they are more emotional markets.

Sberbank is growing and adding value and wealth.

India - got some good companies, however has serious structural problems and bureaucracy.

[loganair] 09/4/2018 20:58

After todays falls the Russian stock market is now trading on an incredibly low p/e of just 5.5.

[loganair] 09/4/2018 17:56

In the long term I think these sanctions are going to be more negative for the US then they are for Russia as it will help facilitate the trading in commodities away from the US dollar to local currencies.

[loganair] 09/4/2018 16:56

Interestingly even with the stock market rout there are still some stocks that rose in value for example Rostelekom is up 3.9% at the close.

What doesn't make any sense to me is how some of the energy stocks are down only 2% while others are down 4% and 7% while there is even a greater range when it comes to the commodity stocks which declined between 3% and 15%.....Just all over the place.

[loganair] 09/4/2018 16:42

Russia's stock market crumbles, hitting funds exposed to the country, as US imposes sanctions on host of oligarchs and government officials by Daniel Grote:


Russia's stock market fell 7.6%, hitting funds exposed to the country.

The JPMorgan Russian Securities Investment trust tumbled 10.1% to 470p, while Baring Emerging Europe which holds 62% of its portfolio in Russia, was down 2.8% at 764p. BlackRock Emerging Europe which features a 56% exposure to the country, fell 5.2% to 334.7p.

On the FTSE 100, Russian steel maker Evraz was the biggest faller, down 15.2% at 382p.

Polymetal International, a gold and silver producer operating in Russia and Kazakhstan, led the 'mid-cap' fallers, down 10.1% at 652p.

Among the seven oligarchs hit by the sanctions are Oleg Deripaska, a billionaire aluminium magnate. Any assets the seven have under US jurisdiction have been frozen and US nationals are forbidden from doing business with them.

Shares in Deripaska's London-listed EN+ Group, an aluminium and power producer, fell 34% to $6.35.

Aluminium giant Rusal, which Deripaska also controls, saw half its value wiped out in overnight trading in Hong Kong.

The US Treasury said the sanctions were linked to Russia's actions in Crimea, Syria and Ukraine and its interference in western democracies.

'The Russian government operates for the disproportionate benefit of oligarchs and government elites,' said Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin.

'Russian oligarchs and elites who profit from this corrupt system will no longer be insulated from the consequences of their government's destabilizing activities.'

[loganair] 09/4/2018 15:22

PIMCO are saying about today's Russian sell off:

It's a blink in time.
Russian fundamentals are good.
Fall in the rouble is serving as a pressure relief valve.

[quepassa] 09/4/2018 14:50

Good for Brazilian agriculture but I hope they don't cut down more of the rainforests to plants soya!

Thanks.