Jpmorgan Russian Securit... Share Discussion Threads

[binladin] 11/2/2015 15:48

Putin will attend the peace talks...

[loganair] 11/2/2015 11:30

Sales growth remains strong - Sales grew 35% YoY in January, faster than sales growth forecast for the year. Magnit (JRS 2nd Largest Investment) released a reasonably strong trading update for January 2015 yesterday. Revenues grew an impressive 35.3% YoY to RUB69.94 bln ($1.1 bln) in January. Sales growth was 2.0 ppt MoM lower than in the extraordinarily strong December, but slightly higher than the company's 26-32% forecast range for the year. A rapid rise in food prices (5.7% MoM in January) was apparently one of the factors that drove nominal revenues higher. Revenues declined 27% YoY in dollar terms due to ruble weakness.

[bonnard] 10/2/2015 17:57

I suggest having a look at Russian gold miner Highland Gold Mines HGM. It is quoted in London, has crashed in price due to Russian paranoia and is paying a dividend of 12%.

[binladin] 09/2/2015 16:30

Two fold benefit higher oil prices and peace with ukriane will boost the ruble and the russian markets.

[loganair] 02/2/2015 10:45

The Central Bank unexpectedly lowered the key rate 2 ppt to 15% last Friday, even though most expected the rate to be left unchanged. As a result, the ruble weakened past RUB71/$ during the course of trading before rebounding to close at RUB69.47/$, supported by firmer oil prices.

Oil is trading above $51/bbl this morning after a strong surge on Friday following the publication of data on idle oil rigs in the US.

[loganair] 02/2/2015 10:43

Rosstat’s preliminary estimates show that the economy grew 0.6% YoY in 2014, which is slightly above the Interfax consensus of 0.5%. Nominal GDP reached RUB70.97 tln last year. Rosstat will release detailed growth figures for 4Q14 in about one month, which the market estimates that the economy grew 0.5% YoY in 4Q14 because of the growth uptick in December, thanks to the strong growth in manufacturing, an uptick in consumer demand, and decent growth in agriculture. The market believes that industry was supported in December by import substitution, while Russians dipped into savings to buy durable goods, which explains the uptick in retail trade.

[loganair] 29/1/2015 21:52

Magnit(JRS 2nd Largest Investment) released unaudited 4Q14 results yesterday, missing market expectations on profits. Revenues increased 36% YoY to RUB221 bln ($4.7 bln) in 4Q14, in line with the previously released trading update, while gross profits rose 34% YoY to RUB65.0 bln ($1.4 bln), putting the gross margin at 29.5%, down 0.4 ppt YoY. EBITDA rose 23% YoY to RUB24.9 bln ($525 mln), missing consensus expectations by 7% and implying an EBITDA margin of 11.3%, down 1.2 ppt YoY (the EBITDA margin was virtually flat YoY at 11.2% last year, or at the lower end of guidance). Net income rose 14% YoY to RUB13.5 bln ($284 mln) in 4Q14, implying a 6.1% net margin, down 1.2 ppt YoY. Management indicated that forex losses negatively affected the financial results.

[togglebrush] 29/1/2015 06:20

Results were on 27th
>
Dividend Ex 6 Feb Paid 11 Mar @ 13p

[loganair] 26/1/2015 21:30

Sales exceed management’s outlook last year. Dixy Group (JRS 12th Largest Investment) published a strong trading update for December on Friday. Consolidated revenues increased 33.3% YoY (accelerating 3.1 ppt MoM) to RUB24.5 bln ($440 mln), which also implied 26.9% revenue growth for the year, above management’s outlook of 25%. Sales in the Dixy division grew an impressive 39.1% YoY to RUB19.0 bln ($342 mln) (accelerating 5.7 ppt MoM), implying also that sales at the Dixy chain rose faster than those of its core competitors Magnit and Pyaterochka in December. Sales at the Victoria division increased 18.3% YoY to RUB3.3 bln ($60 mln), implying 2.5 ppt MoM deceleration, and revenues at the MegaMart division grew 13.3% YoY to RUB2.0 bln ($35 mln) compared to 12.3% YoY growth in November.

[jeff h] 23/1/2015 15:33

Hi Log,

I'd be going with him....he's been to Moscow and speaks a bit of Russki so I
thought Id tag along.

Think you can book the trains from 45 days before...we are looking at June.

We'd be looking at the fast train 13.30 then 13.40 from Moscow...he's a bit concerned they'd sell out...what you reckon?

A central location for the St P hotel preferred....less hassle going in and out of town and handy for drinks of a night etc.

Thanks for the help.

[loganair] 23/1/2015 14:30

Jeff H - No problem with getting the train tickets, just pop along to the railway station, as long as it's not a journey on one of Russia's holidays such a International women's Day, around New Year and Orthodox Christmas, the busy and most popular times of year etc as locals have usually seats booked well in advanced and over twice the price plus of the average price of a ticket.

Your buddy will need his passport to buy the rail ticket as his visa number will be written on the ticket and confirmed by the attendant for the rail carriage he'll be on. He'll need to board the train on the carriage he has been assigned.

The fast train which is expensive takes a little over 3 hours while the standard trains, of which there are around 20 a day, take approximately 8 hours. Personally I always take an over night standard train, cost me no more than 2,500 roubles (£25), comfy enough sleeper bed.

As for a hotel it is difficult for me to recommend one as I do not know your buddies budget. Does it have to be in a central location as St Petersburg has a very good Metro system (signs and stations now all in English as well) and Route Taxi network, both of which costs less than 50p a journey.

[jeff h] 23/1/2015 12:03

log - any decent hotels you could recommend in St P that are very central?

A buddy wants a trip there after a few days in Moscow.

Is it easy enough to get a seat on one of the Mos - St P Sapsan trains?

[loganair] 22/1/2015 17:55

Russia Adds to World’s Fifth-Biggest Gold Reserves.

Russia is showing no signs of slowing gold purchases as the fifth-biggest holder boosted reserves during December.

The country’s gold reserves rose to about 38.8 million ounces as of Jan. 1 from 38.2 million ounces a month earlier, the central bank said today on its website. It’s the longest stretch of monthly increases since August 2013, data from the International Monetary Fund show.

“For a central bank to change direction quickly is unlikely and Russia has been buying gold for a while,” David Jollie, an analyst at Mitsui & Co. Precious Metals Inc. in London, said by phone Thursday. “But it is a bit surprising to see them swapping foreign currency for gold in an environment where oil prices are falling.”

The latest purchase equals about 18.7 metric tons for December, similar to amounts bought in November and October, and compares with 37.3 tons added in September.

[loganair] 19/1/2015 10:12

Capital outflows surged to all-time high in 2014 … The current account surplus reached $56.7 bln in 2014 (up 66% YoY) versus $34.1 bln in 2013, according to data from the Central Bank. The trade balance surplus was recorded at $185.6 bln in 2014 (up 2% YoY) Capital outflows surged to $151.5 bln in 2014, with $72.9 bln leaving Russia in 4Q14 due to the dramatic increase in external debt payments. Capital outflows more than doubled YoY in 2014, setting a record high by exceeding the $133.6 bln in outflows in 2008.

Sanctions mean that it is more costly for Russia to important and less to export which is only helping their current account surplus - silly American's and Europeans.

[loganair] 19/1/2015 10:10

Current account improves despite dramatic decline in oil prices - The current account surplus reached $56.7 bln in 2014 (up 66% YoY) versus $34.1 bln in 2013, according to data from the Central Bank. The trade balance surplus was recorded at $185.6 bln in 2014 (up 2% YoY). Capital outflows surged to $151.5 bln in 2014, with $72.9 bln leaving Russia in 4Q14 due to the dramatic increase in external debt payments. Capital outflows more than doubled YoY in 2014, setting a record high by exceeding the $133.6 bln in outflows in 2008.

Sanctions mean that it is more costly for Russia to important and less to export which is only helping their current account surplus - silly American's and Europeans.

[loganair] 15/1/2015 09:37

The government will concentrate on technical measures … Yesterday key government officials spoke on economic policy issues at the Gaidar Economic Forum in Moscow. Economy Minister Alexey Ulyukaev said that in spite of the sharp drop in the oil price, the government should avoid making substantial cuts to budgetary expenditures in order to support economic growth. Ulyukaev also said that Russia should implement relatively tough monetary policy to maintain macroeconomic stability, which is a necessary condition for growth. On the other hand, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said that the federal budget could lose RUB3 tln this year due to the sharp drop in the oil price, which would make budget cuts unavoidable. Deputy Prime Minister Olga Golodets said that she envisages substantial structural changes in the labor market and believes that the government should help the freed labor force get a new start in their lives. Deputy Head of the CBR Ksenia Yudaeva said that the Central Bank will make consistent efforts to reduce inflation to 8-10% this year. Finally, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said that the government will continue to work on improving the business climate and de-bureaucratizing Russia’s economy.


I feel the policy that Medvedev is trying to carry out is by far the most important and significant thing to help the Russian economy thrive in the medium and long term.

[loganair] 15/1/2015 09:34

Shades of 2009. While the market believes the government will manage to prevent a full-fledged financial crisis following the collapse of the ruble in December, Russia’s economy will fall into a deep recession this year. To a large extent, the current situation resembles the 2009 crisis, as the main driving forces behind that crisis are again at work. The market believes that the economy will begin to recover starting in 4Q15 due to a moderate rise in oil prices and the stabilization of the ruble. However, the recovery is likely to be sluggish, as foreign debt payments, capital outflows and a relatively weak ruble will continue to depress consumer demand and capital investment.

[loganair] 13/1/2015 23:08

As I've posted a number of times that Russia needs an oil price of 3,600 roubles/bbl for the state budget to break even. Currently the oil price is around 4,100 roubles/bbl therefore the Russian state budget is still comfortably in surplus.

What ever is being reported by the Western media, I can assure all on this thread that Russia are still increasing their gold reserves and will continue to do so but at a lesser rate in the coming months.

[loganair] 13/1/2015 22:37

Even with all the sanctions and low oil price, many Russian companies, especially those concentrated in the domestic Russian market are still growing in leaps and bounds.

Interesting to see Alrosa (diamond exploration and mining company) is now JRS 7th Largest Investment.

Alrosa's share price has doubled in the past 6 months, a good pick by JRS early last year as Alrosa sells its production in dollars while most of it's costs and tax will be in roubles. Dividend yield of around 3.5%.

[fabius1] 13/1/2015 21:18

log - Thanks for all the updates. Great help. Hope you had a good Xmas and have a prosperous New Year.