Johnston Press Share Discussion Threads

[mrx9000] 05/2/2017 13:29

Been a lot of posts recently. Anyone notice that Newsquest released results last week?



Notice the profit and loss account movement and reserves...

Also note the bit about Newsquest generating significant free cash flows...

[lord c.] 05/2/2017 12:51

Lord C.>>>Eddy

I thought your posts well worth a read - thank you.

A tiny drop of water.

* Printing. Who knows if the Mail contract is profitable - they must have been given a razor sharp price. Don't forget JP have just lost the print contract for 13 East Anglia titles.

* As to shareholding (a) why did Orbis, who knew the company well, sell for peanuts? (b) 90 year old Sir Ray Tindle is by all accounts very seriously ill.
.
* It's not the number of ads that matter - it's the page yield, I would not want to see ad rates go down. Discounting, tempting as it is to get volume, is the road to ruin.

* New design. Survey after survey indicate readers do not like/want change. A dangerous game - ask The Guardian. Leave well alone unless in the last chance saloon (which the I isn't ).

* I think the I a good product that fills a gap/need. Very few publishers would have paid anyway near £24m - many of my newspaper friends think they well overpaid - as does the market.

* Don't forget shadow directors are illegal in the UK.

I agree new management and a change of direction is essential if they are to have any chance of not being broken up. Will the new shareholders want to run a heavily in debt, complicated sunset business that has suffered from terrible undoable management decisions? I guess the more they see, a la Orbis, the less the chance they will.

[dazzaa] 05/2/2017 12:11

Perhaps, if there are any Professional chartists reading here and there must be at least one that has devoted hours to the cause, like to declare their thoughts on whether we will reach a Golden Cross moment or something anytime soon.

What would happen if we used the monies gained recently to purchase more of the issued bonds now and immediately reduce the amount we pay on interest, would this make the renegotiations of debt more difficult in the future or as in the case of shares there is a willing buyer for every seller and vice versa.

Your on eddy it will be a pleasure to send but the scot in me is more reserved 2nd class post do?

[spooky] 05/2/2017 10:01

Debt for equity swap?

[cgod] 05/2/2017 09:43

I still say we are up for a take over now for the recovery, at what price, who knows.

[dazzaa] 04/2/2017 20:47

We are the converted (we bought the stock) some of us here we know are zealots and I know one and he's quite new here, I'm sure he's sane, maybe on the same tablets I used to be on in my crisis days just overdosing but that is forgiveable as I have a relative who's dyslexic too.

885 they do print alot (jp) of opposition newspapers, publishers tend to be incestual that way and that's the nature of the business but I do believe JP is by far the more efficient, building a nice venture that may be worth a tad .... hived off, CA will have perhaps noted. Possibly
Just read your most recent post eddy 18.36 pm re printing yes low margin for sure, LC will know how little but he may have been too long out of the game to realistically have any idea though he may proffer an opinion.

It looks as if AH then is the de facto Chairman, Company Secretary, Press Officer oh something like Mike Ashley at Sports Direct but without the profit.

May be we have turned a corner with the sp, next week will tell us,if you like post your thoughts here on where the share price will finish at 4.40 on Friday.
It will be a bit of fun, I've been wrong so many times on my predictions but I always offered a bottle of my best to the winner but sadly it was never won.

My thought,15.25p, eddy could I tempt you again ? it's been so many years.

Why I signed up to the last rights issue must go down as regretful but what doesn't kill you makes you stronger they say but does that principle work with slow strangulation.

[firw00d] 04/2/2017 20:02

Without CA we would be this. . . .
Without the i, we would be that . . .

So 2 major plus points in everybody's (even Mr bitter's) opinion.

netcurtains i share your enthusiasm , I would not have invested in the 1st place had i not believed in the upside,

I guess my personal positivity is partly due to being a shareholder since only September last year and not being in a deficit. I truly feel for investors locked in much higher but honestly believe we are on the cusp of a rerate.

Some interesting posting here for a fledgling to read and follow up on as part of my ongoing research. Good balanced posting (from most). Keep up the good work folks.

ATB,

F

[karlos885] 04/2/2017 19:56

I completely agree Eddy, but they have given up on investing in journalism, which is why i think longterm here is little hope for local titles unless there is a change of policy, change of management, basically we have a cost cutting milker at the helm not a journalist or believer. (I know little about AH) I think buying the I was basically the last throw of the dice and was a trophy purchase, how they got their hands on it who knows! The amount it was bought for one of the bigger boys could have easily out bid JPR, but maybe jpr were favoured suitors.

Yes Trinity have slowed their decline, although i can't fathom why they paid 280m for those local titles. I think give it another year or so we are likely to see a faster Trinity decline than now.

[netcurtains] 04/2/2017 18:12

MattAB: Amber Crystal appear to need JPR to be successful. On the 12th of January-ish AC's share price went up in conjunction with the announcement that they have acquired 18% of JPR. It is a small punt by AC but its at a critical point in their history.

Both share prices are linked. HUR is also a high risk (oil west of shetland - its one thing having the oil its another having good infrastructure in place (pipelines) to get it out). AC need JPR this year - they dont have much else pencilled in for 2017 - they need this one.

[mattab] 04/2/2017 17:23

Net

There is no doubt whatsoever that if CA have not taken an active stance it is likely that we would be at 6/7 pence IMO. CA's involvement with their reputation has taken JPR to this level. They do have a proven track record however it certainly is not a forgone conclusion that they will force value here. There will be massive struggles ahead - Eddy great balanced post as ever. It is likely even with CA's involvement and their past history that it will take considerable time if shareholder value can win out in the end. Make no mistake unless CA have a short to medium term strategy regarding a takeover which will likely have issues with regard to monopoly certainly with Trinity there will be struggles ahead.

Liquidity is certainly low and the share price will be trashed no doubt if CA do bail - down the line as they have had to in past history. Any thresholds crossed and it is a major red flag. Personally I do not think that will happen and any time short to medium term. May indeed see the early 20's have done before in recent history but this is not a one way bet. Will CA win out with their bold stance? That's the bet from here. Also the i was never part of AH's strategy a move that surprised all financial commentators if I recall correctly. Currently this is working and a decent move to be fair however it is only masking the rest of JPR's continuous decline. Something AH is adept at highlighting constantly as is the digital inflection point that never has been and IMO never will be realised.

Net - you keep mentioning 22 pence - that may be realised and reckon if so you will be out. ATB to you and all shareholders particularly the long suffering PIs that post on this board. I first bought in at 14 pence and then sub 10 but got out at circa 20 a few weeks in total - Really good profit but if that wasn't for CA's bold move I have to attest I would be at a massive percentage loss with not a great deal of hope tbh. CA have taken this on - must see value but were a shareholder previously? Not sure on average and outlay. Will be interesting - GL all

[netcurtains] 04/2/2017 16:00

karlos885: If you are going down the "recovery" route then I guess one strategy would be sell off ALL the local papers but keep the print presses and I (perhaps Scotsman and Yorkshire post too). In this way profits can roll in via printing contracts (to print local papers) and publishing the "I" while all the losses from publishing local papers would be removed in one go. To some extent that has been the strategy. When results come out we will see if its beginning to work or not...

But all posters - apart from me have not mentioned the graph shape at the top of the screen. Prima Facie the graph has flattened out and this scare talk (and that is what it is) of share price crashing to 6p seems unlikely (news has got us back UP to 17p - more news is likely to lift it to the 20s .....not take it in the reverse direction. The bad is out in the open, the good is not fully disclosed. The odds are in favour of it going up (not certainties but odds)

[mattab] 04/2/2017 11:32

eddy

I do not think CA will be able to work with AH and CR.

Anyone can see this Strategy of AH's has not worked and will not work. The spiv with his spin has made a fortune out of abject failure re Shareholder Value. CA are far from mugs and I am 100% convinced they can see through this. They will be wanting AH out same with CR unless she does work with them. TBH CA will want to direct proceedings and anyone who gets in their way they will want out and rightly so as owning over 20% of the equity and still at a large paper loss.

Whether they have the other Institutions on board - that I am not sure on - think they are more likely to back AH - (did state in the FT he had Institutional support for his strategy). Why - they must be moronic? - Orbis were content just to get the hell out of this multi year nightmare with this vastly over-payed clown at the helm sucking JPR dry.

The needle is it would cost JPR 1 million just to get rid of him and then he would line up another vastly payed job introduced to by one of his spiv mates.

I agree AH was trying to eek anything remotely positive with his usual spin out of the last RNS. Reality is apart from the i - 14% percent down since last year.

Hope CA and Shareholders (PI's) win out on this but suspect there will be much clashing and struggle.

[extrader] 04/2/2017 10:46

Hi cgod,

We will get taken over first net.

Aaah.......but at what price, do you think ? And by whom ?

ATB

[cgod] 04/2/2017 09:14

We will get taken over first net.

[netcurtains] 04/2/2017 08:45

area44: CA cant actually sell without a buyer. For them to BREAK EVEN the share price would probably need to get to about 30p (because it would crash 50% if they attempted to sell without a big buyer stepping in).... I think we can take it that CA think they can get the share price up to the 40s either by a subtle organic growth in some weird so far undisclosed direction or via canny sales of local papers or a mixture of both.

Clearly, yesterday, pleased the market somewhat - buyers at 17p probably see this getting into the 20s ...perhaps a lot higher.

I bought in at 13p and 14p so I am lucky to be in a profit (and it is luck - i'm a total idiot - any of these investors who think skill has anything to do with it are just delusional - all investments or NON-investments are punts) but I am here for the big one - minimum 26p maximum £1.30p.

[area44] 04/2/2017 01:09

I bought in Sept,but sold a while ago at 18p.What concerns me is what would happen if CA can't persuade AH to cooperate with them.

They have sold out of some of their holdings at a profit before.I don't think we can take it for certain that this is going to be another Thorntons.

They won't be far from their average,so could sell,the same as Orbis did.

[firw00d] 03/2/2017 23:16

An associate of CA says they hope to hear from JP next week, ME TOO !!

The I has great looking front page story on the Louvre incident tomorrow.