Johnson Service Share Discussion Threads

[chrysippus] 23/8/2009 14:01

Owenski -

Just been back to check - I didn't manage it..! got 18.7...

[owenski] 23/8/2009 12:58

Did you get those filled, I've tried 18.4 and 18.6 but they weren't filled, how did you manage that?

[chrysippus] 22/8/2009 13:49

Same experience - got 18.4 yesterday...

[owenski] 22/8/2009 12:47

Put a couple of trades in over the week just inside the spread to see whats what, dont seem to want to part with any. Think I'll have to pay full price if I wanna top up.
Regards

[chrysippus] 22/8/2009 12:13

love it -

Post, don't lurk... your point was a reasonable one - how they manage the debt is one of their main tactical questions.

Assuming there are no skeletons in the closet or shocks, their profit improvement schemes work and there is some firming up of the economic environment, they will be on a trajectory that takes them from £12m to £20m profit across the next 2 years.

They've then got to balance four things:

1) Debt repayment (interest rates low, facilities in place until 2010)
2) Dividend
3) Investment
4) Acquisition

What do we know about what they've said?

FD said in Annual Report that lower interest rates will provide further oppoertunites to repay debt

Board has said (in 2008 interims and Annual Report) that if trading is satisfactory they will restore an interim dividend at 2009 interims. Preclose said trading was satisfactory. (I think the restoration of the divi is in the bag, love it, according to what they've said. Not to do it now would disappoint).

JT has said 'targeted investment' in group businesses will continue.

No particular mention of acquisitions although they have mentioned that the high street might provide some opportunities if smaller operations struggle.

It depends on the timescales their working to. Any combination adds value to the business, of course, and they all result in increased profitability.

Clues on how they plan to strike this balance will be a big issue in the interims. Main thing to judge is the quality of the management to make the right call...

On that, I feel confident.

The only issue is the risk of unexpected surprises but no evidence for these.

BW

Chrysippus

[love it] 22/8/2009 10:46

Cheers only turning a few ideas in my head ill go back to lurking.

[snobtimus shaime] 22/8/2009 10:46

plus debt is tax deductible

[katylied] 22/8/2009 10:35

Debt interest is very low is it not? Most less than 4%?
Repaying debt is good, but not if your investment
is producing a higher return...

[love it] 22/8/2009 10:28

DIVI? Net debt of £78.5 million at September 2008

I agree paying one would make this one go mad. I also agree that the spread is there for a reason could be MM's hedging their bets who knows.

But to pay a DIVI no thanks clear the debt first then get cash in the bank to strengthen the position of this company in the market and also may help the margins. No debt cash in the bank we don't need to drop our prices, take it or leave it.


To simplistic? Holding on to my shares great posts guys.

Thanks

[chrysippus] 21/8/2009 18:39

Cheers Boobly

Too right with the no guarantees... the other possible reason for the persistent selling is very hot money coming through and getting bored...

I'm happy to watch them walk by for now.

[boobly] 21/8/2009 17:26

chrysippus :.....I`m getting annoyed with you .....

You say all the things I want to say , only SO much better ;>)

I might just add , that if there is to be a delay with the restoration of the `DIVI` , I think they may take another hefty bite out of the Debt .
Who knows , but either way will be a strong positive , it depends how they wish to be regarded by the City .
One little `Smudge` , I feel that we still have an opportunistic dumper , who continues to drop the odd 50k into any strength . May have nothing at all to do with JSG , he may just need the cash . However , I think the MM`s know this , and are back peddling while they pick his pocket .That might be total trash , but if they are holding back and the news is positive......MMmmmm.....Nice !
NO guarantees in this game though .
We are in the run up to a clarifying statement from the business , so not long to wait , and not long to make decisions .

Totally agree with your comments about this thread Chrys , I hope it stays that way , but knowing ADVFN , NO guarantees there either !

Good Luck everyone , have a nice weekend .

[talha2] 21/8/2009 17:15

chrysippus

thanks for your post ,I reckon it is a matter of a few days patience ,I see a hefty run up soon and then if results impress as I expect 30/40p short term cannot be ruled out in particular heavy reduction of debt and divident re-instatement of divi

[chrysippus] 21/8/2009 17:07

Thanks risk, appreciated

Travelling in hope...

[risk1] 21/8/2009 17:05

Thanks for a great post

lets hope you are right

the spread is encouraging me as it seems the share is being held back

[chrysippus] 21/8/2009 16:34

Hi all -

I'm happy here for now - in fact, picked up a few more today. There's a lot of reasons for different trades, but one of the questions is always whether or not your money's safe from collapse let alone profit.

I like the risk reward ratio here, and am completely relaxed about the daily price movements.

Here's my prediction:

One good surprising day before the results... no way of knowing when but I think we'll get one nice run up to put a smile on the face.

Results will be positive and cause the main rerating. May not be massive, but will put a good percentage on what they are today.

Then over the next few months as the economy picks up these will beat the market out of sight.

There is definitely the potential for £15 – £20m profit here and this is sustainable. With reducing debt (and increasing profitability, maybe a couple of well judged acquisitions) there will be more for future dividends – and the restoration of the divi indicates the co will be committed to developing the dividend.

Take the low end £15m/ 250m is 6p per share.

Normal PER 7 – 10.

Maths looks good for income and capital growth.

So, no advice intended but there are three ways to play this:

Short term – good risk reward for some price action in the run up to results – choice of whether to sell out before results or hold through – partly depending on how much they've gone up (if at all!)

Medium term – 6 -12 months no brainer for some capital gains and a divi bonus

Long term – won't be the worst share to buy for the bottom drawer. Imagine the profit at the peak of the next upswing coupled with some share buybacks

... and not to forget a discrete and muppet-free BB with a discerning set of posters... thanks everyone, and

Best wishes

Chrysippus

[boobly] 21/8/2009 13:37

SSSssssshhh , just keep your fingers crossed......
............... no guarantees , but , ONE day ;>)

[risk1] 21/8/2009 13:24

did you say divi????

yipeee

it would double imo

[boobly] 21/8/2009 13:23

Anyone think we will not do MUCH better than this :

" 9 September 2008

Johnson Service Group PLC

Interim results for the half year to 30 June 2008

Johnson Service Group PLC, the textile services and facilities management Group announces its interim results for the half year to 30
June 2008.

Summary

* Significant progress since John Talbot's appointment in December 2007
* Proforma net debt of £78.5 million at September 2008, reduced from £168.5 million at December 2007
* Adjusted operating profit increased to £7.7 million (June 2007: £7.5 million)
* Three main divisional heads appointed to the Board
* Three market leading profitable divisions all well placed for the future


Financial Summary (Continuing)
June 2008 June 2007
Revenue £130.1m £158.9m
Revenue (excluding costs recharged to customers) £124.9m £136.3m
Operating Profit / (Loss) £0.5m £(11.8)m
Adjusted Operating Profit* £7.7m £7.5m
Exceptional Costs £(5.6)m £(17.7)m
(Loss) Before Tax £(7.5)m £(17.0)m
Adjusted Profit Before Tax* £0.4m £2.3m
* Before intangibles amortisation and impairment (excluding software amortisation) and exceptional items. "

I `Think` Dedt will be further reduced , perhaps significantly .

OOoooeerrr............DIVI COMMING !

......What would THAT do to the share price ?

[risk1] 20/8/2009 21:59

thanks rsi

yes just read the rns

[master rsi] 20/8/2009 21:49

risk1

Just short of 3 weeks, the company has already announced the date ............

24 July 2009
Johnson Service Group PLC
Notice of interim Results

Johnson Service Group PLC notifies the London Stock Exchange that it will be
announcing its interim results for the six months to 30 June 2009 on Wednesday 9 September 2009.

[risk1] 20/8/2009 21:28

when are the results chrysippus?

[chrysippus] 20/8/2009 19:58

Price action is frustrating but the investment argument here is related to the results and the fact that they should be good since JSG are 'pulling away' from the bottom and returning to profitable trading.

Tick, tock...

[risk1] 20/8/2009 19:13

lol the ole mm's

just hold tight if the results are any good they will have to mark them up

agree with the earlier poster ref the dividend

just need to be patient here it will come


ps

WHY ARE THEY KEEPING THE SPREAD SOOOOOOOO WIDE????

[love it] 20/8/2009 16:53

This is getting right up my nose. MM keep the pread and drop on out. Not getting my shares though all bought and paid for. Bring it on! ( I hope)

[bluesky1st] 20/8/2009 14:46

Cheers Sunny

I looked at all three myself and all have had a good run of late, particularly Yell.

Not sure on Yell though with their debt position, I will take another look at them all again.

Many thanks

Bluesky

sorry for off topic, back to JSG.