Johnson Service Share Discussion Threads

[katylied] 14/8/2009 08:23

"...there won't be much price memory in the market after a year...

Hmmmmmm... Hope you are right, but not so sure about that. By the by, the last 20p placement, the open offer, had 80% takeup. It was not underwritten. So what would have happened to the other suthorised 20% (~10m shares). Presumably, they cannot reach the market for less than 20p? Never quite been clear, as to what happens to surplus shares, in cases like that. Anyone know?...

[chrysippus] 14/8/2009 08:13

Morning -

Nice start definitely into breakout territory if it holds.

I'm thinking the bit of 'resistance' in the chart around 20p won't have that much impact since their won't be much price memory in the market after a year.

Also interested to see if the volume stays up.

One of those shares that has those vertical drops - be interesting to see how the rerating happens in the coming weeks and months.

Best wishes

C

[chrysippus] 13/8/2009 20:13

Boobly - cheers!

CR - yep, Sept 24th 2008 since the share price closed above 18p.

Good sign that it held after it ticked up this morning.

Could still move around I suppose but looking good in the run up...

Best wishes

C

[cockneyrebel] 13/8/2009 17:48

A new recent closing high I think :-)

CR

[master rsi] 13/8/2009 15:55

love it

it seems you managed to get some at certain point then
Not just watching now.

[love it] 13/8/2009 13:01

A couple of sells taken and one of the MM's stuck on the offer has moved off. 1 offer on L2


Next offer 20p

[cockneyrebel] 13/8/2009 11:24

Looking great here today. Reckon there will be some high volume soon and then it will be like a horse race imo.

CR

[master rsi] 13/8/2009 11:22

re - looking rosy

That is right, at least for me also as I selected VOG for the last two weeks at the UPS thread and was loosing hope, then today have rocketed

[debbiegee] 13/8/2009 10:52

I got in early this morning too,looking rosy !

[master rsi] 13/8/2009 10:50

Just on the top ready for a BREAKOUT Intraday high, the trades a good so far and some of the delayed trades are buys the earlier 100K and 89K so that works out as.......
BUYS so far 615K and SELLS of 165K

[stnick] 13/8/2009 10:19

fair enough Chrys, no advice intended from me neither.

[boobly] 13/8/2009 10:17

chrysippus :.......

" ...Well, I'm not doing any more with this - you just end up messing about after a while. "

Exactly ! I think you`ve done enough , some really excellent reasearch and presentation .....and today it looks like if it will all be justified .
Anyone getting in at these levels will surely be rewarded as this share is
rerated over the next few weeks .

I bought my share , so I`ll just keep looking in to see the progress .
Thanks again Chrys .
Good luck all .

[chrysippus] 13/8/2009 10:10

Thanks Stnick, let's hope so

Just to emphasise no advice intended, shares can fall as well as rise, do your own research

Etc

Etc

:)

C

[stnick] 13/8/2009 10:05

well it certainly looks like this is in for a re-rating now. Roll on results in 4 weeks and they may be up nearer 30p!!

Having pored through Chrys's excellent post and hearing the news from Germany and France about them now moving out of recession due to consumer spend/confidence, it seems JSG is now going to start to motor.

regs

Stnick

[angel of the north] 13/8/2009 09:43

Been on my radar for months - is it time? Don't know....but I'm in LOL!

[chrysippus] 13/8/2009 09:29

Looks like at Dave -

1 year chart posted above just now...

Can it hold..? Yeah, I reckon.

Next challenge at 20p.

Let's see

Best wishes

Chrysippus

[bigbigdave] 13/8/2009 09:16

Thats the breakout here.

[cagey76] 13/8/2009 08:42

love it - 12 Aug'09 - 23:40 - 47 of 49

yep I also latch onto the word 'overhang', anyone know how much is being dumped and how long it will take to do it ?

[chrysippus] 13/8/2009 08:25

Morning -

So there are two things that go to make a bottom line: management and context.

Management (ultimately) influences market size (can we maximise the revenue for this sphere of activity?), market share (of the revenue flowing within this sphere of activity how much can we command?) and efficiency (whatever the level of revenue we command, can we keep costs significantly below that?).

Most of this thread has been about JSG's management, and most of the emphasis there has been about their work on maintaining market share and increasing group and divisional efficiency.

As a recovery play, they become much more attractive as trading conditions improve... and I'd argue JSG are relatively attractive to other investments because of the quality of their present management and the value in the company of future earnings not presently in the price.

France and Germany set to announce growth with a strong contribution of household consumption... UK consumer figures recently surprising to the upside...

This helps JSG's context which is the last piece of this jigsaw to return this co towards its previous profitability.



Best wishes

C

[chrysippus] 13/8/2009 00:23

Thanks love it

[love it] 12/8/2009 23:40

chrysippus - 12 Aug'09 - 23:21 - 45 of 45


What a post! Well done and thank you.

RSI sorry went out most of the day but I did note a dramatic drop in the on line offer before I did. I do like overhang plays as well.

Thanks again all posters quality posts from all and also some posters I do follow.

Had to buy some rude not too will top up in the am I think.

[bell011] 12/8/2009 23:31

Chrysippus

yes excellent posts; with the volume going through and what looks like a forced seller; i thought i'd just put a limit order in for the morning as a momentum trade. unfortunatley online dealing unavailable with barclays at the mo for this stock. all bodes well it suggested to me

[chrysippus] 12/8/2009 23:21

Thanks Sal, appreciated, your view of the share price may well be more accurate - and would do nicely for the next few months :)

Master RSI re post 36: "figures could be optimistic maybe at this point"

You could be right... I've been back and relooked to see how you might adjust the downside case.

For Apparelmaster, you could take a more pessimistic view of the comments about continuing to be hit by the recession, and say knock a further 400k off to take it down to £6m. I think this is too pessimistic, but looking again the wording of the preclose is pretty cautious so let's go with it.

Looking at the Stalbridge again, the 'mystery' mentioned above about why if it reached profitability in H2 2008 it would only break even in H1 2009 since mgt are 'very pleased' with progress and it's hitting all its recovery targets is solved. Re-reading the 2008 interims they says there that the business is seasonal and always performs stronger in the second half. D'oh!

For the drycleaning, it's all about how they apply the cost reductions, and how that is going to interact with the margins. If we took the downside here down to £1.8m, this would be just at the 2008 level, which would seem harsh but let's go with it.

The FM numbers seem pretty clear.

Well, I'm not doing any more with this - you just end up messing about after a while.

The conclusion? Trying to guess the interims is pinning a tail on a donkey. The detailed figures are unknowable.

Like with the recent UNIQ figures, the overall profit headline may even be driven by the dreaded 'exceptional items' that with small caps can swing percentages round like anything, and which are totally unpredictable (I think JT got these out in 08 here though).

But there are some big signs here. The company is telling the market in no uncertain terms:

The restructuring is complete (and there was £10m spent on this in 2008 on reorganisation, bank restructuring and the move to AIM alone - these costs don't recur)

The cost of debt should fall dramatically (there's a lot less of it, and most of it's at lower interest rates than before)

They are now actively pursuing profitability in all divisions with effective cost improvements in place

There are now no loss makers left

There is some growth coming through

Pension contributions are lower this year (at £1.5m)

So, it's difficult to avoid the conclusion that the financial position and profitability should be significantly improved - and they have been trailing this since the 2008 interims with their talk of the dividend reinstatement, which I see no reason to think we won't get.

Thanks everyone for comments in the last couple of days (this is my first try at a 'proper' thread!)

No more messing about with the story so far - I've done as much of the armchair analysis as is reasonable and I think the story's a lot clearer. The research and analysis has left me feeling very bullish about this one and with some confidence that the mgt here can do effective strategy and delivery.

As always, let's see.

Best wishes and good luck

Chrysippus

[salonie] 12/8/2009 22:01

Good thread Chrys, I,ve had a few of these for a while and watched them creep up lately. Doubled my holding today, should be a good run up to the results.

Looking at the dilution I think 45+ may take some time, however 25-30p should be possible.

ATB

SAL

[chrysippus] 12/8/2009 21:28

Master RSI/ Boobly/ Busthief - thanks for your comments, appreciated.

Rainmaker - thanks for your response glad to hear you'll take a look and I'm very interested in your view.

For anyone wanting to reconstruct the analysis, it's a very careful view of three main documents and it's worth reading all of all of them imo to get an overview, and read them in order. So here they are with links:

1) The 2008 interims:



2) The presentation for the 2008 finals:



3) The preclose from July 2009:



As well as this there's obviously the Annual Report 2008.

This, of course, covers the whole period of John Talbot's tenure (he started in post in December 2007).

Best wishes all

Chrysippus