Johnson Service Share Discussion Threads

[owenski] 10/8/2009 11:08

Good current info thread Chrys, well done

[chrysippus] 10/8/2009 09:57

Strong start but has sputtered before - needs to get to 18p and hold to create the right platform...

[chrysippus] 10/8/2009 00:45

Could be, Eric

Also forgot to include the volume breakout last week... now put the chart in the header...

Supports the view that this could rise nicely towards the results.

[eric bristow] 10/8/2009 00:33

I think there's one hell of a gap up to 75 pence when it gets moving! :) The market is saying the worst of the recession is over but JSG is pretty much still priced for never ending depression atm so if one subscribes to the former i.e. the market is right, it's due a big re-rating IMO.

We shall see...

EB

[chrysippus] 09/8/2009 22:28

SEPTEMBER 8TH UPDATE:

RESULTS TOMORROW

I guess there'll be some interest here after the big rise yesterday... so I thought I'd produce an idiot's guide to researching JSG. A few of us had a flurry of activity a few weeks back gathering the bits and pieces together, so to save you all time, here's the list of posts you should read to get the story:

Post number, content

1, Overview
11, link to good interview with Exec Chair and all round turnaround dude, John Talbot with good read about recent history
22, My big (amateur) analysis of the last 18 months published reports, with (uh-oh) gleaned predictions for results - almost certainly wrong but judge for yourself
43, web links to main financials, company presentations
45, 'downside analysis'
67-85, good discussion about dilution with numbers of shares clarified
91, CR's broker forecast info
99, research about 'exceptionals'
110, Sunshine On Leith's CV of JT
126, prediction!
274, jo0ls' paste of the times article

No advice intended, DYOR


Thread intro:

Thought it might be an idea to put the main arguments in favour of taking a look at JSG afresh in Autumn 2009:

In a nutshell:

Bull case: Very experienced turnaround executive chair makes relevant disposals to tackle debt, puts in the team to build the future and starts to create increasing profitability... dividend resumes and shares rerate to 30 - 50p

Bear case: Debt still high, profitability gonna limp forward, dividend is a sacrificial act and the shares flatline for another 6 - 12 months.

But remember - "Any philosophy that can be put into a nutshell, deserves to be in one" (Hilary Putnam)

Acknowledgements to CR, Boobly and Master RSI whose posts get copied over below in summary first posting...

[cammy3] 08/8/2009 21:14

Management advised back in March a "return to an Interim Dividend" subject to satisfactory trading. Read the pre-close statement and make your own mind up if this co is trading satisfactory. 30p target post results IMO

[cockneyrebel] 08/8/2009 13:13

Actually both brokers are forecasting a return to paying a divi now.

Shore were forecasting a 0.5p divi from March, Investec, since July 7 are now forecasting 0.9p divi. That would be a 6% yield.

CR

[boobly] 08/8/2009 11:00

.....also.....
We must be getting VERY close to the end of that VERY long tail of distressed share price .
Since the `Collapse` TWO YEARS ago there has been some major restructuring . Just check back over those RNS`s .
Eventually all the sacrifice , initiatives and hard work have to ammount to something ....or .....nothing !
I don`t believe for one second nothing has been achieved in this timeframe .
On the contrary , I think progress has been significant (despite market conditions) it`s just that any achievements have not yet been relected in the Share Price .
I suspect there will be a significant change after these results , and probably a gentle rise preceding them over the next couple of weeks .
............

As for rstoration of a DIVI !!!!!

...........WoW ! Icing and cherries on my chip buttie !

[boozey] 08/8/2009 10:25

Either way, there has been significant stake building here in recent months. JSG is not a day traders dream given that although it relatively easy to trade, the spread is often quite large. So to invest you must believe in the story, otherwise steer clear.

New management, new strategy, well funded, director buying, stakeholder building...all you need is patience which is so key in this game...

[cockneyrebel] 07/8/2009 15:32

July 7 t/s.

"Overall trading conditions in the first half of the year were in line with
comments made in the 2008 Annual Report and we remain confident of achieving a
satisfactory result for 2009 with management actions helping to offset pressure
on revenues."

[cockneyrebel] 07/8/2009 15:30

Err, they've already said they are confident of meeting forecasts and are forecast to start paying a divi again too by one broker.

Trading on a fwd PE of 4, that looks like a potential one bagger in a month to me if the results are as good as the brokers suggest.

Directors have been good buyers of shares too.

CR

[critch16] 07/8/2009 15:24

Revenues are irrelevant, you could turnover a billion and still make a loss. This seems like a speculative punt prior to results. 2.5mill shares traded hands prior to the first rise of ~14 to 16p. May take a small holding on back of directors holdings. Waiting on the sidelines atm tho.

[mreasygoing] 07/8/2009 10:00

Should be some blood spilled on the market next week. Am looking for an entry at 13p.

[master rsi] 06/8/2009 21:47

I have lately bought some shares on JSG and apart from considering the stock undervalued by the revenues it generates £263M for a Market cap of around £40M, I also like 3 things below that the directors mentioned at the last results.......

less interest cost this year
satifactory results for 2009
declare a 2009 interim dividend next month

# All but GBP20 million of the Group's bank debt is drawn at
rates linked to LIBOR, the interest cost in 2009 will benefit from the current
reduction in LIBOR rates.

# Following the significant progress made during 2008 we now have three market
leading divisions which are well placed to meet the difficulties presented by
the current economic climate. Overall, the Board expects to achieve a
satisfactory result for 2009.

# The Board's current intention is to resume dividend payments as soon as
appropriate and it intends, subject to continued satisfactory trading, to
declare a 2009 interim dividend.

[cockneyrebel] 06/8/2009 20:19

Some stock has cleared recently imo - those large buys yesterday were the overhang - might be a bit left but last time this had an overhang that cleared like this was April last year when they doubled in days.

I think these are set to really move now - results in a month - just going to be more and more buying imo until then.

CR

[boobly] 06/8/2009 14:04

.....maybe , but ; I can`t think that everything on the business front is quite as bombed out as the share price is suggesting .
Perhaps a little rise before we find out what`s been going on ?

[cammy3] 06/8/2009 13:57

There was four large trades yesterday at 14.75. Maybe MM pumping the price to offload these 4 large amounts of stock. Dont know but seen this before

[boobly] 06/8/2009 13:23

....Into auction AGAIN !

Is something actually happening here at last ? !

[boobly] 06/8/2009 12:15

.....It`s a Trick , another `AIM Trick` ;>)