Wetherspoon ( J.d.) Share Discussion Threads

[isis] 14/10/2010 15:58

Ironically the large chains backed the ban because they could not come to an agreement on smoking and non-smoking Pubs/Bars. In the event they signed their own Death Warrant (barring 1 or 2) and have either gone bust or scaled down dramatically with huge debts.

All too easy to blame the recession but I was around in the 70's and 80's where we had far worse unemployment, strikes and far less money but very few Pubs closed down.

[isis] 14/10/2010 15:37

i'm not saying there aren't other factors but we have had a recession every decade and two World Wars and none of them had much effect on the British Pub - along came the smoking ban and......................

Death of the British pub: Punch Taverns warns 1,300 locals have no future
Nick Goodway
12.10.10


The new boss of Punch Taverns today called time on almost one in four of its thousands of pubs.

Ian Dyson, who arrived from Marks & Spencer at the start of last month, said the group had identified more than 1300 pubs out of its total estate of 6700 which have no "long-term viability". They are likely to be sold or closed over the next couple of years.

Finance director Phil Dutton explained: "These pubs don't feel like they have a viable, sustainable profit level. Many of them are trading reasonably well today, but we feel their profitability is not long term.

"They are places with limited scope to expand trade into food or soft drink. It is hard to see how they can evolve," he added.

That has forced Punch to take a £218 million write-off on the value of the doomed pubs which wiped out trading profits of £131 million in the year to August.

Punch shares dropped by 9%, or 7.95p, to 82p.

At its peak in 2006 Punch Taverns owned more than 9200 pubs. Last year the group sold 893 pubs for a total of £254 million.

At the end of the next sale stage it will be down to 4,700 leased pubs and around 700 managed pubs.

The 1,300 which it has now earmarked for sale are unlikely to remain as pubs and will probably be bought by restaurant chains or landlords for use as student accommodation.

Dutton said: "They are what we would call vertical drinking establishments. They tend to be wet-led and male orientated, scattered around the country but unlikely to be within the M25. London and Greater London continue to trade well. Over the fullness of time, two to four years, we will gradually withdraw from them."

Britain's pub industry has been suffering for the last two years as beer sales have plunged due to the smoking ban, high duty rises and the underlying economic gloom.

During the first half of 2009 an average of 52 pubs closed each week. That has now fallen to around 39 a week. Punch said that a slight improvement in sales in the final quarter had continued into the new year.

Dyson added: "While we have been encouraged by more recent trends in both the leased and managed businesses, the economic environment is very difficult and there remains room for improvement across all aspects of our business."

Alongside the piecemeal sell-off of unwanted pubs, the Punch Taverns boss has also launched a total re-examination of the group's business.

He said: "I have started a comprehensive review of our strategy, operating performance and capital structure with a view to exploring options to create value for our shareholders."

Analysts suggested that this could mean anything from selling off the 700-strong managed estate, to a major shake-up of the company's complicated financing structure.

[isis] 14/10/2010 15:34

abergele - I really don't mind anti-smokers but to say it has had no effect on our Pubs is pure nonsense as I know many who have stopped going to the Pub. No one expects non-smokers to smoke but at least be honest about things:-


Smoking ban to blame for decline of Irish pub, says new research
WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 15, 2010 AT 8:21AM
New research suggests that the smoking ban is the main cause of pub closures in Ireland.

Using data from the Revenue Commissioners, researchers found that the number of pub losses demonstrate a very close statistical relationship between the introduction of the smoking ban in 2004 and the rapid decline of the Irish pub.

This relationship, says the report, is considerably stronger than those that could be attributed to other factors such as the recession, alcohol duty or supermarket competition, although all of these are likely to have been contributing factors.

Analysis of statistics set out in the Statistical Report on the Revenue website showed that Ireland lost 1,097 pubs in the four years following the ban.

Researchers found a striking similarity between the rate of closures in Ireland following the ban, and those in Scotland, England and Wales following theirs – despite considerable differences between the pub traditions .

Four years after the smoking bans Ireland and Scotland had lost 11% and 11.1% of their pubs respectively. After almost three years (the latest period for which data are available) England and Wales are on almost exactly the same trend having lost 7.6% and 7.3%. In total 5,298 pubs had shut within three years, across the four countries.

According to the report by CR Consulting, commissioned by the Save Our Pubs & Clubs campaign in Britain, "While there is significant variation in the trajectories of pub closures before the ban, there is an almost total correlation between the four countries – Ireland, Scotland, Wales and England – after the ban.

"This indicates that they are affected by a strong common factor – the smoking ban. The correlation is in fact so close that the trend line for the four countries is almost identical."

Oliver Griffiths, director of CR Consulting, said, "Some pubs were struggling before the ban but it had a sudden and marked impact, accelerating the rate of decline. While it is not the only factor in the closure of pubs, the smoking ban is demonstrably the most significant cause of pub closures in Britain and Ireland."

John Mallon, spokesman Forest Eireann which represents smokers in Ireland, said,
"The smoking ban has had a devastating impact on Ireland's pubs. Instead of enjoying what should be a good night out with their friends, many smokers are choosing to stay at home.

"For the sake of our pubs and our local communities, the Government must relax the regulations so people can light up in a warm and comfortable environment twelve months a year.

"Pubs need smokers. That's a fact that ministers cannot and must not ignore any longer."

Download report

Further comment

John Mallon (Forest Eireann) 085 219 3245
Simon Clark (Save Our Pubs & Clubs) [phone]
Oliver Griffiths (CR Consulting) [phone]

[timbo003] 14/10/2010 15:30

See the dicussion regarding the directors departures on today's Markets-live ftalphaville

[gbb483] 14/10/2010 12:00

People always need impromptu social gatherings - it'll take armageddon to stop the trade at pubs.

[mickinvest] 14/10/2010 09:12

What's this all about the FD and CEO going along with a few sells from directors recently?

I've been watching the oil price move up and this will be hitting fuel prices further and the austerity measures being announced shortly don't exactly support the pubs packing in more customers?

JDW look a decent short for protecting ones portfolio at this level in the event of a general market pullback.

Mick

[abergele] 05/10/2010 22:13

I have always turned an eye in here to wetherspoons,not typed, but tell all the staff to buy or take a share-save offer if there is one.

I see £4-40...then £5-40,long range..
and all this smoking nonsense, is not to blame.

all the pubs are busy in the day time,especially Wetherspoons,
it's the night time , when the lighting and heating costs are not met by expenditure, and why, its because when the young numpties are about ,causing bother,that the older drinkers are indoors.at home...

I left drinking in Rhyl after 10pm to the idiots years ago...1994.

all drunks staggering about causing trouble whil'st the police are nowhere to be seen..

[gbb483] 05/10/2010 21:34

That'll be the kiss of death then.

[libertine] 05/10/2010 15:05

JD Weatherspoon upgraded to Add by Charles Stanley - Target price 510p

[isis] 30/9/2010 09:47

My local JDW is one of the only Pubs left open directly near me, the others have closed due to the smoking ban.
Ironically enough the local JDW has the best outside smoking facilities but also led the campaign to ban it!

I suppose there has to be some winners.

[mroalan] 30/9/2010 09:45

major sale on at our local started on 27th,is is nation wide?

[robrah] 16/9/2010 08:07

experience tells me when brokers downgrade it is time to buy.

[libertine] 15/9/2010 19:03

Downgrade by JP Morgan



Date Broker name New Price Old price target New price target Broker change
15-Sep-10 JP Morgan Underweight 421.70p 406.00p - DownGrade
14-Sep-10 Panmure Gordon Buy 438.30p 580.00p 525.00p Reiteration
13-Sep-10 Evolution Securities Hold 437.00p - - DownGrade
10-Sep-10 Seymour Pierce Hold 422.50p 450.00p - Reiteration
10-Sep-10 Altium Capital Buy 422.50p 550.00p - Upgrade
10-Sep-10 Evolution Securities Buy 422.50p 550.00p 500.00p Reiteration
03-Sep-10 Panmure Gordon Buy 431.90p 580.00p - Reiteration
04-Aug-10 Panmure Gordon Buy 445.50p 580.00p - Reiteration

[bob f2] 15/9/2010 17:20

What caused the share price to plummet today, can't be Lymington

[bob f2] 15/9/2010 17:19

It was all over BBC 1 Breakfast about Lymington trying to stop Wethers from opening.

Wethers are different according to area, alco's pubs in city centres and nice Steak houses in rural areas.

Just wait and see how full it is on Tuesday's Steak night.

[gregory0106] 10/9/2010 12:09

Looking forwards to a Spoons in Lymington & will see me & Mrs visit more often on our days out. Its a great little village to visit and relax watching the boats in the harbour but is as dead as a doornail in terms of activity.

Can't see why the locals should object to a Spoons as there are already a good number of pubs in the area (some a fair size) but none offer the choice or quality of beer & food available in a Spoons.

I suspect those who are objecting have a vested interest in the existing pubs & realise they will loose customers once the Spoons is up & running.

If they are objecting because it make the area too much like the rest of the country perhaps they need to shut down the big four banks branches and do away with the weekly market as it hardly raises the tone of the area & is just like any other street market!

[gbb483] 09/9/2010 11:29

Does anyone know when the results are due? I've looked on their web site but it doesn't work properly with my browser and I can't get the information. Last year it was 11th Sept. Are we expecting dividends to be re-instated?

[milacs] 05/9/2010 12:41

How often do Wetherspoons refurbish their pubs and what is the average cost?

M

[isis] 05/9/2010 10:14

He's had a nice couple of divi's though. ;-))

[essentialinvestor] 05/9/2010 10:05

I am well aware of that,
it does not stop him trading the shares.

[isis] 05/9/2010 09:45

He already has around 30million - don't be silly.

LOL

[essentialinvestor] 05/9/2010 09:41

LOL


When I see TM buying in quanity, I will have a few of these