Jd Sports Fashion Share Discussion Threads

[ggbarabajagal] 03/1/2018 15:11

Net cash at period end (b)

222.7 MILLION


That was six months ago could be over 300m with the Christmas season sales

[ggbarabajagal] 03/1/2018 15:02

Wont be surprised if it hits 450p on results

i.e.. up a 100p

Next surging today

[ggbarabajagal] 03/1/2018 13:05

So much cash

[ggbarabajagal] 03/1/2018 13:04

ROCKETTTTTTT

[michaeljames1] 03/1/2018 09:44

I do find forecasts are usually on the conservative side because they'd rather be proved wrong and results are better than predicted than over estimate expectations. With that revenue to EPS their margins are taking a pretty big hit...

[firtashia] 30/12/2017 13:47

Forecasts for FY18 (stockopedia) are revs £3050m & eps 22.5p. As you say, I reckon it’s reasonably priced here.

[michaeljames1] 30/12/2017 13:22

Do we have any future forecasts of revenue? It's taken big hits in the share price and I got out around 400 about 6 months ago but it's been such a solid investment for me previously I'm looking for a re-entry point. The interims were very positive and if they can deliver then there's potential for an EPS of 20p plus which gives a PE of 15-20 based on an share price of 300-400p. This seems very reasonable considering the financial state the business is in as well. This is the most active forum, which is better than the ones where's there's a new post every 2 minutes but I do like to see other investors or potential investors outlook for the company.

[bensug] 18/12/2017 17:00

Article about JD Sports getting extra income from Click and Collect internet shopping.https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=

[fangsforthememory] 14/11/2017 17:02

Looking at the inverted head n shoulders on the daily chart, yesterday was a 'head test'. Interesting to see how it goes, have a position here.

[slogsweep] 26/10/2017 14:56

There she goes 395 next stop. if it gets through that then well into 400s if it fails to break 395 then may be back to trading in a range 325-395

[slogsweep] 20/10/2017 13:51

reverse head and shoulders forming could be in for a big rise when it completes my estimate is sometime in next two weeks at a closing price in the 330-340 range

[psmith1110] 20/10/2017 13:21

Any specific reason for the weakness other than the general malaise surrounding retailers after the recent sales figures ?

[alphabeta4] 15/9/2017 17:43

I can understand your thinking Contrarian, Carney has seemed to like influencing the yield curve without actually following through. Having said that the markets have started to ignore him and instead looked at the comment in the minutes that 'a majority of the members believe some withdrawal of monetary stimulus was likely over the coming months'. We will have to see if they're more genuine than 'the unreliable boyfriend'!

[contrarian joe] 15/9/2017 12:52

Don't know how long that will continue Aiphabeta4,can't see rates going up any time soon,government trying to talk (the pound up to protect inflation),will the markets fall for it though,!might be wrong, it's how i see it.

[3rd eye] 15/9/2017 12:51

Broker note here on JD. J.D Sports. Looks VERY Bullish.

Peel Hunt.

JD’s H1 performance is ahead of expectations and we are
upgrading. Including online sales (now nearly 14% of JD’s sales),
LFL remains the envy of most retailers, and profit delivery is
strong, with core margins flat despite various headwinds. Go
Outdoors has started well within the JD stable and we expect
further strong progress from each silo in H2. The shares have
been wrongly derated due to concerns from the US and slowing
athleisure momentum. Today’s numbers show that there is
plenty more running in the JD legs yet and we expect a strong
bounce back from 13x PE.

£102.7m of PBT. We were forecasting around £93m, so a £100m+ result was a decent outcome against that number: it sets up a nice upgrade (essentially we are keeping our H2 forecast unchanged and just adding the £m beat to FY numbers). In-store LFL in the core UK JD business was 3% against an eye-wateringly tough comparative. In Europe, the LFL number was 7%, another fine effort given last year (Holland was the toughest market in this half, things were marginally more bearable in Germany). Both of these LFL numbers do not include online sales: they are now 13.7% of UK/Ireland sports fashion sales (up from 11.1%): had LFL been included online, it would have been 6% in the UK and 10% elsewhere. Both of which are striking numbers and on top of the material volume growth that we have seen in the last few years, it gives JD a very strong bargaining position with suppliers. The gross margin was down by just 30 bps in the JD fascia, a good effort given the headwinds, and the net margin was flat, despite the living wage being a factor again. All in all, it was a very strong showing from the core business and we expect continued in-store and online growth in H2, despite the tough comp again. Another 40 stores should open in the period and the pipeline of stores and good people to run them is very much intact.

Outdoors into profit. Blacks and Milletts’ performances improved, showing LFL growth and lower losses, and the contribution of Go Outdoors ensured that the silo was in the black. The business is starting to work as one: it’s early days but the buying teams and operations units have begun the discussion on how to move forward. It will be a while before the systems are conjoined, but JD’s increased scale in the space should bring about a stronger performance in time A £10m upgrade. It's not difficult to see how our upgrade could be too conservative. JD's trading form remains good across Europe , SUR Dutch losses will reduce in H2 and outdoors should make progress again. However, it's probably right to be a touch cautious given the wider economic background. We certainly don't think the trend towards athleisure is anywhere near played out, and the recent weakness means the shares can now be bought on an early teens multiple, which spells good value to us.

[alphabeta4] 15/9/2017 10:29

Strong move for £ vs $ good news for JD. Relieves some of that margin pressure.

[alphabeta4] 13/9/2017 18:07

Nice write up. Good to see sanity prevail of sorts. IMHO this has been unjustifibly downgraded by people focusing too much on the macro picture and not enough on the quality of the company.

[elliotset] 13/9/2017 08:13

Break threw 400p in no time

[contrarian joe] 12/9/2017 19:03

D Sports kicks off new upgrade cycle
By David Brenchley | Tue, 12th September 2017 - 14:06
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JD Sports kicks off new upgrade cycle
Shares in JD Sports Fashion (JD.) tumbled two months ago following a low-key trading update, prompting us to ask whether the 14% sell-off in shares from record highs was overdone. Now, the tracksuits-to-trainers chain has answered the question with cracking first-half trading numbers and bullish outlook.

While chairman Peter Cowgill said in that June update he was confident of hitting full-year 2017 targets, his update lacked the bells and whistles investors had come to expect. Combined with a perceived slowdown in UK consumer spending and the bear case was building.

Indeed, investors could have bought JD shares up for as little £3 at the end of August, a 10-month low. That's because interims released today were expected to see earnings momentum stall. It didn't. Instead, Cowgill boasted of yet another record first-half.

Pre-tax profit jumped by a third to £102.7 million in the 26 weeks ended 29 July on revenues up 41% to £1.37 billion. Earnings per share (EPS) jumped 36% to 8.09p. The weak pound increased import costs, crimping margins, although this had already been priced into expectations.

May's acquisition of Go Outdoors helped JD's Outdoor division deliver a positive first-half result for the first time ever, with an operating profit of £100,000 compared to a £2.3 million loss a year ago.

The second-half has started encouragingly, too, with sales at similar levels to those seen in the first six months. Full-year profits are now expected to be at the upper end of market expectations, we're told.

Cantor Fitzgerald's Mark Photiades now pencils in full-year pre-tax profit of £285 million, which would be 16% higher than 2016.



In truth, it should have been entirely predictable. Historically, JD coasts through the first half before upgrades kick in through the important winter months, including the key Christmas period. Panmure Gordon analyst Peter Smedley notes JD's profit split is typically weighted 65:35 towards H2.

Those shrewd enough to get in at 300p are sitting pretty. JD shares surged as much as 12% to 384p Tuesday, giving a maximum return of 28% in just a fortnight.

Brokers upped forecasts for 2018 and 2019 by 2%-5%, "potentially triggering a new wave of the powerful positive earnings momentum" that has driven the stock in recent years, according to Smedley.

Investors should, of course, understand the risks, among them an increasingly competitive 'athleisure' market including players like Nike/Adidas, Zalando/Amazon (AMZN) and ASOS (ASC)/boohoo (BOO).

However, consensus opinion is that the long-term bull case remains intact. JD continues its international expansion, with 40 new stores opened in the half-year and a similar number planned for the next six months. This, combined with a strengthened digital and multi-channel presence, should drive further revenue and operating profit margin growth, argues Smedley.

A forward price/earnings (PE) ratio of around 16 times for the year to January 2018, falling to 14.5 times in 2019, looks attractive for a company positioned to continue to deliver sustainable double-digit earnings growth for the foreseeable future.

Kate Calvert at Investec had already increased her price target in June to 455p. That now goes up again to 475p, implying potential upside of 28%. Photiades keeps his target at £5.

This article is for information and discussion purposes only and does not form a recommendation to invest or otherwise. The value of an investment may fall. The investments referred to in this article may not be suitable for all investors, and if in doubt, an investor should seek advice from a qualified investment adviser.

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Recent Features

[5chipper] 12/9/2017 18:03

Ok, thanks Alphabeta

[alphabeta4] 12/9/2017 17:13

Schipper the upper end of 268-290 is the pre tax so isn't the pe figure. The forward is around 13.5 cash adjusted when I checked earlier using this year's cash figure and cash should be around £100m more by the end of H2 from the guided capex figures given the H2 profit skew from the Christmas period (barring no acquisitions of course) which will reduce this further.

[martinc] 12/9/2017 14:24

sorry.. I misread it as PE, not p/ev because I was squinting at my phone...

[5chipper] 12/9/2017 14:23

M cap of 3.6b less cash of 200m to get ev of 3.4b

With profits forecast to be £290m for full year, taken from interim statement.

3.4 b / 290m = 11.7.

May have missed something obvious there as all figures off top of my head

[martinc] 12/9/2017 13:56

[I can't read..].