Jd Sports Fashion Share Discussion Threads

[luisfrg] 11/4/2017 07:31

Hindsight!

[fruitninja84] 10/4/2017 22:22

Looking good but sadly i traded out half at target and the rest last week @390 so i missed the move today. I used the proceeds to get the last of my IGR fill and cover a few small losses in other trades. Ive traded this share on and off for years. Its one of the few out there that just goes up smoothly over time. If i was smart and still held my first initial buy i would be up over 400%.

[isaready] 10/4/2017 19:27

shame I missed this one, but seems breakout has happened. Not sure how much it has to run though.

[alphabeta4] 06/4/2017 15:07

That 349 looks cheap now :)

[fruitninja84] 13/3/2017 15:03

New closing high today perhaps?

[walbrock82] 13/3/2017 12:25

JD Sports is one of the most successful companies in the last decade with share price gains of 1,584%!

These are the contributing factors:

1. RISING PROFITS AND INCREASING MARGINS; - Profits grew from £8m to £133m in 12 years, whereas margins increased from 1.5% to 7%.

2. Revenue growth grew at a compound rate of 12.2% per year.

3. The value placed on the market on JD Sports is close to 40X earnings and EV/EBIT of 25X (a record).

4. For every BRITISH POUND spent, JD manages to produce an extra £2.45 in sales within one year of implementing capex.

5. JD Sports has a net cash position of over £112m.

For more:

[alphabeta4] 02/2/2017 20:52

Nice - it can do that sometimes, there was a daft pull back on an ahead statement around the £10 mark from memory (pre split) when you could almost get the upgrade for free.

[fruitninja84] 02/2/2017 10:31

Sure did alphabeta, although I didn't get the best price. My average is 349. After getting 4 fills. Holding now for 370p. Conviction holding.

[alphabeta4] 31/1/2017 17:47

Hope you took advantage Fruitninja - IMO it seems to want to run the trend rather than the fundamentals, should have gone to £3.70 on that 15% profit upgrade. Expecting it to value out in the next few weeks.

[fruitninja84] 27/1/2017 15:43

I have been watching like a hawk and every time it touches (so far ) 341-342 it gets bought up. May be a good entry point.

[bruceylegs] 12/1/2017 08:46

Great results, especially maintaining 10% LFLs. SGP also announced today, their peak trading LFLs up by 14.9%. Both companies showing how multichannel retail should be done.

[alphabeta4] 12/1/2017 07:20

15% upped profit guidance, and 10% like for like growth maintained. Wow, for a mature high street retailer that must be one of the best results in the market.
I'm sure it will be a great day and all that with probably around 15% on the share price but I do have a quibble here - there is a significant undeserved discount to companies like TED whose results were far weaker and here you have significant net cash, not net debt. It would be nice to see some of that gap close given the number of upgrades here.

[ali47fish] 05/1/2017 14:44

has anybody got some idea of wht kind of updarw we might get tomorrow?

[sttrader] 19/12/2016 18:23

Very useful Grosvenor thank you

[grosvenor] 19/12/2016 11:47

I post here a chart of JD using VectorVest software - note the green line - this is VV's value and as can be seen it has been declining recently - a slight worry. The EPS though is still increasing.(The chart only goes to last Fridays close)



Here is the overall analysis of JD by VV



Hope it helps DYOR

PS Non Vectorvest subscribers can get free analysis of up to 5 stocks by visiting vectorvest.co.uk

[alphabeta4] 19/12/2016 11:22

Because ali47fish based on my thinking above I have worked out my estimates of what the likely outcome is and believe it remains good value. The company has had a good track record of producing excellent results and I don't want to miss these potential upgrades whilst waiting for a report on something which I have weighed up and think isn't likely to be a big deal.

[ali47fish] 15/12/2016 20:38

please can you explain alpha on what basis you have rebought when presumably the investigation is still ongoing- i heve sold my holding with a very good profit but i am not clear at what price i should renenter- i sold at 307 with an avearge purchase price of 98p

[alphapig] 15/12/2016 19:27

Dept work and pensions getting involved, suspends recruiting from job centres pending investigation. Channel 4 news.

[alphabeta4] 15/12/2016 18:09

Thanks Grosvenor, I hope that £2.95 will come to look a bit of a bargain in time.

[grosvenor] 15/12/2016 13:24

Great analysis - Alpha Thank you

[alphabeta4] 15/12/2016 11:55

I've done some detailed SPD research this morning - their warehouse problems led to a c£10m 'hit' for their policy to then pay above minimum wage, I've been trawling through a lot of articles but I can't see them ending up with big back pay costs and from JD's press coverage only 30% of the workers are Assist Recruitment which is where I would suspect the problems are most likely to come from.

The site in question employs 1500 workers who work 4 days on 4 days off so average of 42 hours per week. If to be cautious these were all full time (obviously not the case as some seem to work on zero/minimal hours) then that's 2.96m hours a year, or a wage bill of £21.3m based on the minimum wage. With JD having c£200m pre tax profit for the year (based on current analyst forecasts) changes to this wage bill would look to have a minimal impact on profits.

Since SPD started getting these problems in September to December last year their sales have been growing, c7.6% on forecasts according to Monrningstar. This has been above prior trends so there doesn't seem to have been an impact on sales from the coverage.

SPD's main problem looks to be they didn't hedge their currency exposure, causing a big dent to margins as with their customers being so price focused they've been unable to pass on price rises to the customer as easily (compounded by competitors being able to keep them the same because they did). EBITDA for the current year is forecast to fall from 502m to 271m and PBT from 407m to 130m which when you then chuck in a steady stream of corporate governance issues helps explain how they've lost over 2/3 of the share price.

Overall back on JD from an ethics stand point this looks to be disappointing and I hope they will properly address it. I have confidence in this because of the way it has run the rest of it's operations (hedging, back office cost control and efficiencies, consistent sales growth etc). Therefore I feel we're just left with a cost to remedy from the retraining etc. On a conservative basis I can't see this being above £10m representing 5% of profit before tax. So I make that a hit of 17p based on the prior price of £3.37 and the overall investment case intact, I've therefore rebought my position.

[henryatkin] 15/12/2016 11:24

Sports Direct is a corporate governance problem, not a warehouse problem or Union problem. Likes of Amazon, Sports direct, JD., ASC, BOO & even BOK all operate similar warehouses. Unskilled, unqualified, potentially lazy, thieving staff have to be treated without being giving them the benefit of doubt. Unfortunately, with many of this social group, 'give them an inch & they'll take a mile'. A lesson I learnt the hard way when I ran my business.

[alphabeta4] 14/12/2016 14:44

Minor point - bigboots £2.80 would be £14 as 5:1 split.

[alphabeta4] 14/12/2016 14:43

Me too - albeit mine was at an average of 311 as I was working through a couple of statements first thing and didn't pick up on it until the break of 320 and was left wondering what was going on. I personally feel it's a bit of a pig trying to price these sorts of incidents - I will have a look at SPD and see if it can give me a clue(!) albeit I would hope this is on a much smaller scale without the same level of corporate governance issues!