Sorry numbers hat on as usual, just to unpack latest intel ;)
"ITV's parts could be three fold on the £2.8bn Mkt Cap today!"
So £2.8bn * 3 = £8.4bn / 3,812,127,461 ordinary shares in issue = £2.20
("two fold" would = £1.46)
Don't shoot the messenger - just always on the calculator me!!! |
8.4 Billion ching ching what's that a share ! |
The attention seeker is back. Stating the obvious.
Phantom US source.
'very soon' 😄 |
My US source says the sum of ITV's parts could be three fold on the £2.8bn Mkt Cap today!
Apart from Studios owned and very profitable, ITV create some of the world's most successful unscripted formats which they license globally to maximise the value from their programme rights. ITV own the rights to a significant catalogue of programmes that are licensed to broadcasters and streamers internationally through their own global distribution network.
A bidding frenzy is going to happen here very soon! |
What can I say, CURRYS up over 10% after results and forward statement....
You can either listen to American Idiot or you can accept the market is saying
the future is relatively Rosey compared to what some investors originally thought. |
I agree with some of the more realistic posts here, but despite the gloom people want entertainment and ITV currently has a number of positives going forward in its delivery streams. There seems to be a heck of a lot of adverts on the TV all striving to capture demand for their products and services. As others have said the multiples NETFLIX and some other media names in the market certainly evidence the potential upside prospects at ITV. If our CEO and her team are not working on various breakup schemes to provide an improved return for its patient shareholders others will be working overtime to this end. Interesting times ahead, and although money is tight for some I am personally seeing much activity on the roads and on the high-street. |
netcurtains...Currys...Did you read the CEOs comments today ? (UK consumer in worse shape now than six months ago)
Currys warns of "inevitable" price rises after £32 million Budget hit
Frasers cut its profit forecast for the year by £25m to between £550m and £600m. The company also warned it faced a £50m jump in costs next year when changes to minimum wage and employers' National Insurance tax take effect.
I appreciate retail will be hit harder than other sectors but the point I'm making is UK PLC as a whole have been hit for £25B beginning in April 2025.
Ad revenues will definitely suffer as a result. |
CURRYs update today.
NI increase had more or less zero affect.
Price up about 10%
So it seems retailers told the government and public one thing
and shareholders a different thing...
I suspect the only way for UK is up....
Labour threw the kitchen sink at the budget - now its
the upside... For next 4 years. |
Good post Matthew...
I don't believe that the worst over the next 6 months is currently in the share price
As well as ad revenues coming under pressure I also think studios will come under pressure in 2025 as well (Note this from the Q3 trade update :- Total Studios revenue is expected to decline mid-single digits over the full year which is only marginally down year on year excluding the impact of the US actors' and writers' strikes)
You saw the real impact on the share price last month when budget uncertainty started to affect current ad trading. If it wasn't for the unsubstantiated 'bid rumours' then the share price would be in the low 60's still IMO.
The short-term outlook is poor (dire even)
Any warning on profits / revenues will always result in a share price that gets hammered. |
American Idiot , I don’t disagree with you that the (UK) macro picture looks poor (at best). We have no growth , high interest rates and still have some inflation in the system , particularly when Labour continue to blink whenever the Unions flutter their eyelids. However I would remind you that markets are forward looking , with circa future 6 months priced in. Also , in the interims they flagged the worse outlook for advertising , which led analysts to Cut eps for 2025 on average by 5-8%. My point being , that some of what you allude to is already priced in.
As I said the other day , ITV really doesn’t have a huge amount going for it operationally right now , though of course a bid changes all that.
Bigego , talk of bid valuations is of course a moot point as the rumours remain completely unsubstantiated. However , get one , put the company into play , and then an auction process as bidders scramble for the jewel in the crown (studios) would make life interesting. |
Day after day all I see in stockmarket news is UK PLC warning on profits / predicted price rises as a result of the NI rise which comes into effect April 2025.
£25 Billion is a huge amount for UK PLC to adjust to in such a short space of time.
The more I think about it the more convinced I am that this will have a negative impact on advertising revenues for ITV in the first half of 2025.
It was budget uncertainty last month...
The next trade update...It'll be uncertainty as a result of the budget NI increases as UK PLC cut back on advertising with a cautious outlook...
Upside revenue risks to current trading = 0%
Downside revenue risks to current trading - Likely (In my opinion)
Of course the red herring is a potential bidder appearing. (Or another anonymous article in the media...which was nothing short of a re-hash of things we've known about for a few years now)
American Idiot downgrades ITV to SELL with a price target of 63p |
For me the ITVX updates in the annual reports are the best bits!
They keep highlighting milestones being reached earlier each year (eg when 1 billion streams are hit), growth in streaming hours, intel on desirable age groups that advertisers are targeting - honestly no ramping needed here - ITVX seems genuinely like a huge success - and ITV would be much poorer without it... a tangible credit to McCall's strategy regardless of other criticisms.
"a 35 per cent growth in viewer hours in two years, ahead of BBC iPlayer, Netflix, Disney+, Channel 4 and Prime Video."
Amazing! And I'm sure this is not going unnoticed. |
I guess the problem is hardly anyone has a landline anymore (at least I dont know anyone)...
The same potentially will be for terrestrial TV...
And of course in the olden days ITVs competitors were only based in UK now the competition is global.
Against that ITV sells globally and ITVx is doing OK......
Netflix is valued at 400 Billion and has a PE ratio of 50....
Its annual turnover is 33 Billion.... So its market cap is over
ten times its turnover...
ITVs market cap is 30% less than its turnover....
Cant help thinking ITV is incredibly undervalued "IF" ITVx
pulls off a BIG coup...
EVERYTHING depends on ITVx |
BigE - yes totally agree - make your own opinions on valuations |
Makes sense but I expect bidders are only looking at ITV exactly because they can get it below what they should actually be paying |
Yes it's a lot - but don't forget JP are NOT saying 'hey this is the takeover price' - they are saying this is our fair valuation of the business TODAY.
Personally, I would want to see a bid premium ON TOP OF that valuation - eg 40% on top of 115p! Otherwise the bidder is being opportunistic and stealing ITV and my future dividends!
So that would be about 160p which is +120% compared to todays 72p - now that seems even more crazy right? But it's true 115p is just their valuation of the basic business today.
Long term holders here are only going 'to get paid' if the price can climb firmly from here BEFORE a takeover. Any bid now eg around a quid would be a disaster frankly and probably below a lot of holders average buy in prices.
Many here will disagree with my calculations!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! |
Good find login..... let's hope |
Boueno - you’re right and we’ll never know how many small holders bailed in the round trip from 75 to 62 and back again… (almost!) |
Whatever the outcome of the present ITV situation, I'm guessing it had already been decided, some months ago. It's been operation, "Eject as many of the small shareholders as possible, and deter any new ones".
The year end results are likely to be reasonably positive, but I suspect, we will never see the actual results.
I could be very wrong, and as they say, It's a gut feeling", which is growing stronger. |
Many thanks Davius. That was very reassuring as I added today at a reasonable size although I noted placed in the SELL steam by advfn. |
Do we have a goldfinger 2 spouting more fake BS? |
Yes cyberian, the 115p target is a new broker update.
It's apparently worth 1p a share more than the last time they provided an update, but still, a sensible target in the absence of a bid... |
What rumour? |
Is the rumour that is going for a US listing correct? |
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