Itaconix Share Discussion Threads

[muffster] 08/4/2024 13:07

Any idea why this is up Dex, as last week the news wasn't positive

[dexdringle] 08/4/2024 09:16

I'm sure you're right

[lefrene] 08/4/2024 09:02

dex, you only have to wait one more week for JS to disappoint again.

[dexdringle] 05/4/2024 09:36

Have you seen the IP Group share performance ? Hardly an indication of management who are capable of giving quality guidance 🙄.

They held Oxford Nanopore all the way down from £7 to £1. And they've done the same with ITX, even putting more money in at the equivalent of £8 a share (or whatever) !!!

[purchaseatthetop] 05/4/2024 09:34

If it is formulation then it must be all the formulation. Why would JS not make that clear?

[lefrene] 05/4/2024 09:28

The scale of it tells you that it's formulation PTT.

JS would not have made this move without IP Group approval. IP Group will be as keen as anybody to see this business move up the profit chain, and will be aware of whatever good things are coming down the track, and also know that selling patented product cheap, sends out the wrong message to a market that increasingly needs this 'clean' product.

I suspect that it won't be long before the kept persons in Brussels will ban phosphates in a wide range of consumer products. My guess they will wait until their large corporation sugar daddies are in a position to replace phosphates, and the ITX construction of a new plant in Europe could well be that event. So perhaps another 12 months? Once that happens ITX will get noticed.

To my mind the opportunity here is being sold for beer money.

[dexdringle] 05/4/2024 09:27

Next week, JS won't redeem himself. Nor will he demonstrate where the growth is coming from. The bloke is a dreamer.

No one shorts Mickey Mouse shares like this.

[purchaseatthetop] 05/4/2024 09:14

Lefrene. The problem is that JS has not said if the lost revenue is product or formulation.

[lefrene] 05/4/2024 08:34

dex, JS has next week to redeem himself. He needs to demonstrate where the growth is coming from, and the size of it. It doesn't help that we are going through the end of the tax year. This crash of the price is bonkers when it's over a short term loss of perhaps £180k profit. I suppose it's possible that the rejected client might be shorting the stock? Just to send a 'message'.

[jpuff] 04/4/2024 17:46

To suck in punters at a higher level. All part of the game mm's play

[dexdringle] 04/4/2024 13:39

Well, that brief glimmer of hope was soon snuffed out. Makes you wonder what the recent rise was really all about.

[lefrene] 04/4/2024 12:54

You need to do a bit of homework.

[jpuff] 04/4/2024 11:10

I think it would make sense to delist from the London market and list on the Nasdaq to be honest with you. The London market is dead

[lefrene] 04/4/2024 09:58

About time JS brought out some good news!

Strip out the cash and the market says it's worth £14 million? Seems silly to me given the attributes and prospects of the enterprise.

[purchaseatthetop] 03/4/2024 16:47

“and it has a moat of patents needed as the world goes 'green'.”

Actually if they had oil instead the share price would soar! The world has rather relapsed.

[geraldus] 03/4/2024 09:57

Doesn't take many trades to move this either way and with Cavendish gone it is not so easy to get broker information.The question for me now is do all those million dollars worth of established products on the market reformulate with another competing plant based compound or go back to acrylic.What would the cost of that be in dollars and customer satisfaction?

[lefrene] 03/4/2024 09:57

Those with confidence and spare dosh will likely be seeing this as an opportunity to load up. It ain't going bust, it has new lucrative markets opening up, and it has a moat of patents needed as the world goes 'green'.

[dexdringle] 03/4/2024 09:38

The market doesn't believe it. The market doesn't like it. It's all about confidence which has now been severely dented. Jam tomorrow businesses like this exist based on optimism.

What they hell did they think was going to happen to the share price when they announce the loss of a major client ?

Just as we were gaining some momentum too 🙄

[lefrene] 03/4/2024 09:03

Losing $2 mil turnover at 9% net means losing $180k of profit, however by not doing that work we release capacity to do higher margin work.

From the Pro-Active video it would seem that there has been a long and friendly relationship with this end user, so perhaps after a bit of reflection they come together again? Perhaps the party involved feels he is 'owed' by JS for the long standing support from the early days, and understandably is digging his heels in. But the world moves on, 'green' is here to stay, he knows ITX has a reliable product, hopefully they can come to a deal further down the road.

JS would not have taken this stance without the blessing of IP Group. I guess moving ITX products into being seen as valuable, rather than as a cheap commodity supplier, is seen as the way to position ITX as adding much extra value to the end products, and thus worth a premium.

Perhaps the end user if he too is in the 'green' game, can raise his prices to his customers. If this is a fairly simple bulk process, JS may find 15% net as a workable margin? In the meantime as our new products expand there will be available capacity to swiftly respond to any new business.

To replace that lost $180k profit on $2 mil at 9% one needs circa $600k of business at a sensible 30%.

imo the price reaction is way overdone. One might hope that JS brings out some good news with the results, although on past track record, perhaps best not to.

[elsol] 02/4/2024 19:15

PTT,
The new Fcst 24 is an optical financial worst case scenario (low case) assuming the worst outcome and total loss of revenues going forwards for this client (a client that appears to have v low profitability overall and hence low contribution to the value of the firm in totality irrespective to its total revenue - in all probability we will not see the worst case evolve into the actual revenue outturn since the party may order more than the worst case for the rest of FY 24 and may return in FY25. In any case much of the value of ITX is not currently generating revenue but has value nevertheless. Its subsumed in the share price so my take is yes we may have lost a chunk of revenue - its not really profitable so times by, say, 75% then consider R&D projects overlay value so you cannot say we lost x% revenue and that translates to x% share price fall as we are dealing with apples (profitable revenue) and oranges (non-profitable revenue and grapefruit (future much bigger very profitable revenues) that can occupy the plant capacity. See my note on LSE chat re: plant capacity and value maximisation of total ITX portfolio (existing and new customers) which may mean the decision today is actually value accretive as a portfolio rather than destroying value. Its a strange concept but one you have to get your head around with this stock if you are serious medium term invetor.

[purchaseatthetop] 02/4/2024 17:57

Lefrene. That is a big assumption though. That it is only formulation revenue with very low margin that is being lost. That does not add up. If revenues are dropping by nearly $2m to $6m in 2024 from $7.9m that means $1.9m walking. That is all the formulation revenue going. JS should clarify because questions remain.

[parob] 02/4/2024 17:16

But for now the relationship is over and they had to inform the market.

[parob] 02/4/2024 17:13

Having listened to today's interview I get the impression the relationship with this client is far from over and they will be back on more favourable terms (for ITX) at some point.

[lefrene] 02/4/2024 16:52

Kindly posted by someone in the other place.

[lefrene] 02/4/2024 16:03

I believe the 9% is a net margin, a 9% gross margin would be even more pointless.

My point being that even a net 9% is likely not a real profit margin as there are always hidden costs that over time grind a thin margin, even thinner to the point of a possible loss. ITX has reached the point where it doesn't need to 'buy' business, it doesn't have to go cap in hand begging for business.

The market is simply machine driven, reduced turnover entered into the algo, and the non thinking ignorant machine sells.