Itaconix Share Discussion Threads

[the ghost who walks] 09/3/2021 19:37

Weak share price

[the ghost who walks] 07/3/2021 16:46

Disagree given the margins. We make 10mln revenue suspect we are closer to 59mln mcap

[thordon] 07/3/2021 15:41

Nouryon signs deal with Itaconix for bio-based polymers for the detergents market
January 15, 2019 Admin 0 Comments
Nouryon (formerly AkzoNobel Specialty Chemicals) will expand its offering to customers in the detergents market through a supply agreement with bio-based polymers maker Itaconix.

[thordon] 07/3/2021 15:18

ITX is linked on web search but can not get the ingredients to prove it

Nouryon launches ingredient to improve anti-viral paint sustainability and quality
NEWS
Arquad GS, an innovative, environmentally friendly antimicrobial agent that enables the formulation of a robust and tintable anti-viral paint is being launched to Asian markets during the CHINACOAT show.

hxxps://www.nouryon.com/news-and-events/news-overview/2020/launching-ingredient-to-improve-anti-viral-paint/
Quick overview of our markets | Overview

[thordon] 07/3/2021 12:50

hxxps://www.zoominfo.com/p/John-Fernald/3460992709

Found by AJP08


Below brings up some interesting question , what was said

Mar 4 2021
Itaconix has launched a ########## ( its a guessing game )
Read All
Product Marketing

Product Launch

Feb 28 2021
Itaconix is planning to reduce the ########### ( its a guessing game )
Read All
Financial Planning

Project

Feb 28 2021
Itaconix is reportedly in talks to ########## ( its a guessing game )
Read All
Facilities Management

Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A)

Feb 27 2021
Itaconix is seeking a ########## ( its a guessing game )
Read All
Facilities Management

Open Position

[elsol] 05/3/2021 20:49

CYBERBUB. Re your comment. "I guess the issue is that we then need to make $10M-11M revenue to justify the £20M current cap, never mind a higher cap.

But the point about the IP and know-how being worth much more than £20M is a good one."

My comment; a 2x revenue multiple is not really comparable since its based on much larger and importantly much slower growth spec chem peer group. So my view is that you should adopt a 5x revenue multiple minimum off the prospective year 2021 results re end forecast as one benchmark and the other as yours is the total investment cost today which is much higher

[lefrene] 04/3/2021 11:37

It has taken much longer to get here than the original investors foresaw, and a great deal more dilution than foreseen too, as Neil Woodford now knows. We have to wait until we see how well sales are now going, and thanks to helpful posters on this BB, it would seem that sales are growing in leaps and bounds.

As for knowing what they are doing, plainly they have had the skills to develope these products, but it has taken a long time, and I suspect that the company was dominated by techies rather than business people, but that appears to have now changed with the appointment of experienced sales persons. I remain hopeful that they can expand without yet more dilution, if that becomes clear then I would expect the shares to rise in value. I have no fear of debt at the right price, if one has a clear rising demand for the product.

[purchaseatthetop] 04/3/2021 11:14

lefrene....with growth they have to fund working capital plus fixed assets expansion. The additional funds would not be enormous and with the share price around say 8p (in the next 4 months after trading update) they could raise $4m with a cheap placing. Personally I hate debt in a young company.

The using clients capital is an option if they choose to be an IP licensing company which I very much doubt!

All good problems and I am sure all well in hand. They seem to know what they are doing technically and professionally.

[lefrene] 04/3/2021 11:09

Getting to the point where fear of more equity issues would help sentiment. I'm hopeful that once they demonstrate accelerating substantial revenues, they will be able to issue debt for expansion capital, rather than constantly diluting share holders. I suppose it's possible that they could use clients capital, by getting clients to build their own production facilities that would be operated under licence?

[purchaseatthetop] 04/3/2021 09:49

cyberbub....this is about IP that might dominate the entire market for green polymers. The longer it goes on the greater the first mover advantage for ITX and the greater barriers to entry to competition. 10 years and $80m has been spent getting us here. The value of that? Hundreds of millions. ITX do not even both tell us about entirely new product ranges any longer (they went from 8 to 9 recently) and we have an RNS from March 20 with a development project for green packaging that we will hear about in a year or two.
This cannot be valued (like Tesla) with NPV of cash flows. This is different level for the moment (with higher risk obv). I love it.

[cyberbub] 04/3/2021 09:36

PAT good post.I guess the issue is that we then need to make $10M-11M revenue to justify the £20M current cap, never mind a higher cap.But the point about the IP and know-how being worth much more than £20M is a good one.

[purchaseatthetop] 04/3/2021 06:58

cyberbub...my cals show that with their increased overhead (recruitment of VP sales and also Operations) but with their high levels of Operational Gearing (fixed costs on productions so high marginal gross contribution on added production) ITX need to get to sales of around $7m per annum to breakeven.

Based on our analysis that sales were $1.1m H1 2020 and our guess that they might be $1.9m H2 that makes total of $3m 2020.

Revenue for FY 2019 were $1.1m. Therefore sales might have nearly tripled over 2019. Sales in 2019 were 59% above 2018. Therefore sales growth accelerating. ITX need to increase sales in 2021 by my calcs by 150% to breakeven - should be possible.

Bear in mind we found that they were recruiting a new operations person for night shifts. The present configuration of factory means that they can reach $15m per annum without investing in more equipment. This means IMO that they are getting close to operating near half their capacity (OK they might also do long runs which means 24/7 running for a few days). Half capacity = $7.5m per annum = break even.

That is why I am buying at 5p (along with AGL and BMN). ITX are I think far further ahead than we know (despite the exhaustive analysis) and their silence is deafening. I expect a slew of good news along with, as you say, probably a relatively small further funding by placement.

All IMO and probably rubbish but WTF...

[cyberbub] 03/3/2021 22:52

*should be able to raise debt

[cyberbub] 03/3/2021 22:49

I have an investment here which is in profit, but the reality is that the company still needs to treble sales (based on the last H1 figures) to reach breakeven. That seems unlikely for a while yet.I see suggestions earlier that higher valuations than the current £20Mish cap may be based on the value of investment made in the IP, rather than on breakeven/profitability? Certainly possible. If early investors have put £50M in then I would expect they will be looking for 2-3x that as a minimum for their time and risk?If we don't get taken out (personally I'd rather we didn't) then I expect there will need to be one more fundraising later this year, but as long as it's around these levels (or higher of course) I have no problem at all.Once into profitability then we shouldn't able to raise debt for expansion without dilution?

[si c] 03/3/2021 14:00

Not sure how to posts charts here, but technically I'd call this a buy here. Support off 50ma and back above 8ma yesterday. Sold 85% of mine neat the recent high but have started buying some back.

[rivaldo] 02/3/2021 07:27

Croda have made an acquisition for €25m this morning in the "creation and supply of natural and botanical ingredients for the global beauty industry", which further indicates the way their strategy and industry is going:

[purchaseatthetop] 28/2/2021 13:13

elsol....glad you are happy! We all try to help here. It is good.
By the way....if you have not seen it check out the 4/3/20 RNS copied below:

4 March 2020

Itaconix plc ("Itaconix" or the "Company")

New Collaboration in Biodegradable Packaging

Itaconix is pleased to announce that it has signed a joint development agreement with a leading innovator in biodegradable packaging (the "Partner").

Under the agreement, the companies will collaborate to evaluate the use of Itaconix's BIO*Asterix™ line of functional additives as key ingredients in the Partner's range of biodegradable packaging solutions.

The agreement establishes parameters for the desired properties for BIO*Asterix™ additives and an operating framework for the parties to collaborate during the evaluation process. If the development efforts are successful, Itaconix will produce and supply one or more BIO*Asterix™ additives for the Partner to use in its product range.

John R. Shaw, CEO of Itaconix, stated: "This collaboration is an important step for us to assess the commercial potential of our initial BIO*Asterix™ additives. Although it is too early to consider the potential impact on revenues, I am optimistic that our bio-based ingredients will find valuable commercial use in biodegradable packaging in the coming years."

This is a slow burner that may deliver massive in the future but has no value attached at the moment.

[purchaseatthetop] 27/2/2021 11:28

elsol....I see the share drift as a boon. I started buying at 2p and bought all the way up (including 8p damn...) but the short term traders came and went leaving us LTH's to look after the baby for a while. When the next news arrives we will have a rapid rise to a new level (and then probably more drift). I see this sub-5p as brilliant value and am buying more Monday. Excellent LTH for me. Some really good analysis was done (and bets placed) on what the final 2020 revenues would be.

[elsol] 27/2/2021 11:18

Re: share price decline. Ignore it its based on very low volumes. The vast majority of investors are dormant holders until this goes much higher. My near term share price value benchmark target is the aggregate invested to date in the technology since inception. Someone here just referenced 50m GBP+. I'm going to be looking at this in the 2020 financial year end accounts shortly to verify this figure. The reason is that the original investment plan is now definitely being delivered so the original investment value case years ago (eg materially higher) is very relevant now in respect to the current date 2021 technology value.

[elsol] 27/2/2021 11:08

Thanks very much everyone. All clear now. Great. So we look to be in a very strong IP position then. Don't underestimate the portfolio of trade secrets and manufacturing knowhow also to speed up innovation for new applications.

[sabre6] 27/2/2021 11:06

The share price seems to be going in the wrong direction

[supernumerary] 27/2/2021 10:47

I think if their customers, who are not tiddlers, could make it themselves, they would.

[thordon] 27/2/2021 10:28

elsol

Anyone can use a copy up-to 50% of ITX ingredient , problem is not effective.
No one can sell a generic ingredient as protected.

To get to this stage over $80 million has been spent in research , so if another company wants to find a alternative then it may be possible but then why take a risk when you can by ITX company on the cheap.

[purchaseatthetop] 27/2/2021 10:24

elsol....good series of posts. As far as I understand it the ITX IP protection is using sodium polyitaconate in more than 50% purity. Anybody can use the chemicals but they only work when over 50% of the product. It is a rather magnificent IP protection.

Your wondering is exactly the same as my wondering. I am dividing all my extra contributions into ITX, AGL and BMN. Good luck in yours.

[elsol] 27/2/2021 09:11

Thank you Parob. Excellent. Do you know whether all "polymer synthesis" based itaconates are ring fenced under ITX patent rights in developed markets or is it not that straight forwards? Eg. Hypothetically if a company wanted to compete whats stopping them selling an otherwise generic itaconate ingredient with the same (or very similar) chemical structure and physical characteristics? Are there polymer grades that are patent rights protected under ITX only? I probably need to see the original patents. I'm just trying to understand the strength under pinning ITX's commercial marketplace which I believe is v. good and obviously discrete from other intellectual property like tradenames, manufacturing trade secrets and customer relationships which also play an important role obviously. Wondering whether to invest even more of my cash into ITX when we get the detailed 2020 breakdown shortly.