Itaconix Share Discussion Threads

[rogerramjett] 19/8/2020 12:38

Maybe. I think it just needs something to spark some interest. Once people take a look at the current position compared to where they were at last year and previous I am sure they will see that the bad news is out the way and in the past.

Sailing as close to the wind as they have is not good for shareholder confidence but II's must have seen something to have enabled ITX to raise the capital to take them through to end of 2021.

Obviously Croda and some other large companies placing repeat orders which appear to be growing will only add to this. It would be great to get another customer on board to confirm that ITX are going places.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a few creeping over here, its juts how are they to hear of ITX ?

[core786] 19/8/2020 11:56

Wellcome aboard, Patience required and I mean serious patience.

[rogerramjett] 19/8/2020 09:46

I have been on several quiet boards and low volume shares this year. Timing must have been right. I like the prospects of ITX going forward from here.

The past is the past. They have sailed close to the wind a few times but looking quite different now.

[parob] 19/8/2020 07:25

Itaconix cleans up with bio-based polymersApril 27, 2020hTTps://www.unh.edu/unhtoday/2020/04/start-itItaconix polymers are now found in major brands such as Greenworks, method and Resolve.hTTp://www.rbnainfo.com/brand.php?brandId=28 Resolve are a Reckitt Benckiser brand!hTTps://www.greenworkscleaners.com/hTTps://methodhome.com/product-category/home-cleaning/Also worth mentioning that dropps use their polymers - they're a detergent mail order company (similar to SMOL in the UK) based in the US: hTTps://www.dropps.com/collections/laundry-detergent-pods

[rogerramjett] 18/8/2020 10:31

Those enquiries in 2017 and 2018 are likely to be the ones converted to sales. They have already notified the market of European sales. I expect that market could also expand for ITX now they are establishing themselves with certain customers.

[rogerramjett] 18/8/2020 10:29

There is an interesting bar chart in the presentation which demonstrates the growth in enquiries from 2017 through 2019.

[rogerramjett] 18/8/2020 10:01

The ghost. I am sure there will be new contracts. But current contracts are also growing for existing products. The sales figures also tell you this.

They have a projection in the presentation I linked yesterday, this is $2.2m for 2020, £4.5m for 2021 (which I expect will be sufficient for at least breakeven, $8m for 2022 and $25m for 2023.

They will obviously need expansion to achieve $25m as the current capacity is $15m per annum. I also believe this would not be a significant cost to increase this capacity.

So yes, they will need additional contracts, whilst projections are estimates this is based upon the number of enquiries they have had and samples issued to customers to allow formulation of products including the ITX product. The time from enquiry to order is typically 2 - 4 years. They know roughly the sales conversion and this will obviously lead to new contracts and customers.

I think we are agreeinging to some degree.

[core786] 18/8/2020 09:59

Well done Roger!

[the ghost who walks] 18/8/2020 09:36

It won't generate 100% run rate year on year, compounded' as you phrase it without new contracts. That's the point. Worth listening to some of the interviews with ceo on this.

[the ghost who walks] 18/8/2020 09:20

Agree. Sales are key. I'm hoping share price move is indeed because of a new contract. Current run rate will be breakeven, we need to move above that.

[parob] 18/8/2020 08:55

Great to have you here Roger. You spotted VDTK early (earlier than me at 5.2p) and have done very well there. Hopefully that will be replicated here.

[parob] 18/8/2020 08:53

It's all about the entry price.

[dexdringle] 18/8/2020 08:51

I love it when these new, enthusiastic and gullible people bowl up with all their positivity. Trying to teach the long stuffing holders how to suck eggs....

[rogerramjett] 18/8/2020 08:40

Parob. I fully agree. The presentation identified a comoany that is now turning the business around and is heading up.

Lefrene. I suggest you watch the presentation, check out the large customers they arleady have i.e Croda and then look at the 6 month revenues through COVID19 and projections for the next few years.

This is now a growth business bouncing off the bottom. Sales are now coming through from the efforts out in last 3 to 4 years through samples sent to customers.

Watch the presentation. Its a worth while 31m and 18 seconds.

[lefrene] 18/8/2020 08:29

It has a long history of talking and not delivering, show me some sales. Is this another false dawn, or is there a sniff of a contract?

[parob] 18/8/2020 07:45

It hasn't been a popular stock due to its chequered past but that's the reason the market cap is so low. Things are turning around now i.e:Unaudited revenues for the first six months of the year were $1.1 million, representing circa 80% GROWTH over the equivalent period in 2019 and circa 62% over the second half of 2019.Taken from launch of fundraise RNS:Market research estimates the bio-based chemicals market was a $59 billion market in 2018 and will see projected growth of 10.5 per cent per annum over the next five years to 2023. Of the bio-based chemicals market, Itaconix operates within the bio-based organic acids segment, which currently represents approximately $13.5 billion of the overall market, with projected growth of 11.8 per cent per annum over the same period. The Directors estimate that, with Itaconix's current ingredients offerings, the future revenue potential to Itaconix of this market could be approximately $300 million per annum. The Directors also estimate that, in the next five to ten years, Itaconix has the potential to capture annual revenues of $75 million of this future potential market.Imo market cap is way too low considering the potential.

[rogerramjett] 18/8/2020 07:31

Wololol. Thanks for this detail. The business seem very focused and send a clear message regarding revenue growth. The growth projection are exponential 100% plus year on year. Capital requirements are minimal as the facility is already set up.

They estimate the revenue by the number of samples issued to customers and the length of time to formulate a product and convert to a sale. They are having a significnant number of enquiries and can match the customers wish lists with their own products. Many items are to do with sustainability.

This is looking really good from here. I appreciate that they have had a difficult past but they seem very buoyant about the future and are 'masters of their own destiny' currently manufacturing and selling what they can produce.

With increase in revenue will economy of scale and greater proftability.

Is this company, that is now coming of the bottom really only worth £7m with all its protected IP and sticky customer base ?

[supernumerary] 17/8/2020 22:58

Got it thanks - will read and review :¬)

[wololol] 17/8/2020 22:41

Yes go to Allenby capital and you'll see itaconix research initiation on 22nd July. They do say it's a high margin business and is a pretty good read actually. I did learn a few things.

Quote "Gross margin in the half year to June 2019 rose from 20% to 29% but was still not fully reflective of the potential as the absorption of overheads is restricted by the current low level of capacity utilisation. Clearly, as revenues rise and the underlying economics and operational leverage kick in then gross margin will increase. We believe gross margin has the potential to rise to circa 40% in the longer term.

[supernumerary] 17/8/2020 22:20

wol - thanks - I registered the 'de-bottlenecking' comment and sort of thought they were pushing up against the limits of what they could achieve without structural change. Obviously pushing more through the factory will improve short term margins, but as far as I can see that would involve a third shift, with the associated personnel and hardware maintenance costs, which eat away at margin. The swings take away what the roundabouts giveth.

Is the analyst note available online?

[wololol] 17/8/2020 21:57

Hi Super. Good to here your thoughts. The current gross margin is between 25-30% and as per the recent analyst notes the more they pump through the factory the more economies of scale they achieve. This is most nobable with absorption costing. In the 1-2-1 interview John says they are also improving production efficieny by de-bottlenecking improvements. In the near term they are aiming for a 40% margin which is very respectable in this sector.

[supernumerary] 17/8/2020 21:46

I suspect I got here via the same route as Roger, but can't remember - I've been watching for a while. It seems attractive, but reminds of my first encounter with BYOT, where my immediate reaction was that they were not sufficiently focused on margin. BYOT eventually fixed that problem be 'refreshing' the management and now looks well set for the long term. Here I'm not so sure that's possible.

In the interview/presentation I watched at no point did JS even mention profit, let alone margin. So they're running two shifts and hoping to hit break-even - how can that translate into a step change in the bottom line?

I took a toe-hold position today, but am happy to watch and wait for evidence of a slightly more sophisticated management approach before adding more.

[wololol] 17/8/2020 21:31

Imagine if there was actually contract news tomorrow we would see 8p I think!