Ishr $ Tb 7-10 Discussion Threads

[cfro] 11/4/2021 12:55

Keep a watch-out over the next three weeks - there are $370bn of new issuance coming to auction.

Most likely the FED will be the main buyer of the best part of it as Foreign buyers are still thin on the ground.

[henryatkin] 16/3/2021 12:27

PensionCraft thinks there will be another 5% to come off of 7-10 year Treasuries. I have the upmost respect for their views. The chart technical's still say the long term trend will hold because bond investors in Europe can getter much better returns from US Treasuries than from European government bonds bearing in mind Germany is still negative rates.

The first half of the video deals with Equities & the second half with Gv Bonds.

[henryatkin] 04/3/2021 10:38

Its not only yields that are indicating inflation. US PMI's are also showing it.

[henryatkin] 01/3/2021 15:37

cfro ... that makes a lot of sense. I can't make any case for buying at the moment & I expect the IBTM chart to break down through the long term trend after a brief few days of recovery.

[cfro] 01/3/2021 14:18

Many of the issues went no bid and, i believe, that it was down to the primary dealers to step in due to lack of foreign buyers.

Inflation is already insidiously among us which is why foreign central banks and institutions are demanding higher yields on the contrary to the FED that must have lower yields. Will see what happens next.

[henryatkin] 01/3/2021 08:54

Presumably markets were looking at (or pricing in) some inflation in the not too distant future. However, governments can't afford risk of higher yields when they carry so much debt so I'd anticipate central banks will buy government bonds if/when auction demand is weak.

Recent commodity prices do suggest some inflation will happen. So the question is what effect will that have on treasuries. If yield do rise that usually makes banks more profitable but will impact on higher mortgages & hit housebuilders.

Year on year IBTM has lost 10% compared to SMX gain of 20% so a 50/50 holding would have given a very low drawdown portfolio gain of 10% on a buy & hold basis.

[cfro] 26/2/2021 18:08

Apparently the 7 year treasury auction went badly yesterday with very few bids hence the general stock market sell-off.

[henryatkin] 26/2/2021 14:54

Chart analysis doesn't always work out as planned so a break down through the trend line would make it look very unpredictable.

[henryatkin] 17/2/2021 13:42

A few days later from the above IBTM topped out & reversed - I closed my long 50% of my trading capital. Since then it has fallen over almost a year by 20% & seems to be finding support very near the last low reversal & the long term lower trend line. It also gapped down a couple of days ago which will probably lead to an island reversal pattern as per the previous low reversal pattern.

Another bullish signal for me is the commodity channel index (200 day period) showing divergence with higher low compared to the price action making lower lows. Charts filed away.

Possibility of a 30% reversal plus any yield - no time limit.

[henryatkin] 18/3/2020 15:30

Still some volatility >2% moves today but the trend is still up which is another all time high largely on the back of falling GBP. Now +18% year to date.

[henryatkin] 16/3/2020 16:36

Spreads back to normal today following the Fed intervention with a rate cut & QE

[henryatkin] 13/3/2020 07:36

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Joe Rennison in London and Colby Smith in New York YESTERDAYPrint this page64
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Investors and analysts are warning about deepening cracks in the world’s largest government bond market.

Strange patterns have started to emerge, such as drops in the price of US Treasuries — a traditional haven — even while riskier assets such as stocks have been squeezed by fears that the coronavirus outbreak will spark a global recession.

Some are warning that the patterns could lead to the unwinding of one of the market’s most popular trading strategies — with potentially serious consequences. Such fears prompted the US Federal Reserve to announce a sweeping package of measures on Thursday to try to ease conditions, including pumping trillions into the financial system.

How did we get here?

Nervous banks and other dealers seeking to insulate themselves from swings in asset prices have pulled back from facilitating trades between investors.

The US Treasury market is normally a safe place for investors to shelter from sell-offs but it has not been able to escape the onslaught of volatility. This has made it more expensive for investors to buy and sell Treasuries, as dealers have retreated.

[henryatkin] 12/3/2020 16:36

Never seen a day like this in the markets largely down to the DJI being down over 2000 points & GBP down 2.4% against the USD. However spreads widened tremendously I assume in an attempt to stop trading. The spread went from around £150-£180 then settled at the close not far up from the opening price with a fairly normal spread of about £1.20 on a closing price of £171.

[henryatkin] 05/8/2019 15:51

Re post 31 above; both gold (PHGP) & IBTM have risen 26% since Knowledge Leaders forecast. Excellent hedges for equities on this occasion.

[henryatkin] 15/5/2019 12:12

18 month high today. Could this be the flight to safety starting? Ex Div tomorrow

[henryatkin] 25/7/2018 13:55

Conclusion
The US Dollar has experienced a sharp counter-trend rally recently, driven by recent
increases in crude oil inventories.
We think this move has been magnified by the acceleration in quantitative tightening
by the Federal Reserve. We expect that once QT comes into view in Europe, likely
beginning in September, and assuming the Bank of Japan continues to slow its asset
purchases, that the US Dollar will resume its downtrend alongside falling crude oil
inventories and rising interest rates.
We continue to be wary of long-duration bonds and do not see US, European or
Japanese government bonds as effective hedges to equity exposure.
We do, on the other hand, believe gold may be positioned for a strong advance. As
such, we think gold is a better hedge to equity exposure than bonds.

Knowledge Leaders Capital Q2 update.

[abc125] 13/1/2012 16:15

Could still catch a bit of upside dasv if you feel deflation is coming. IBTM is also a great $ proxy.

The USD/DXY bottomed in a Primary wave A in 2011 at 72.70. With the long term uptrend now confirmed we expect the DXY to rally to around 87 in 2012. After that it should decline, with the bear market rallies in the CHF and EUR, to around 77 in 2013. Then we expect a massive shift out of all foreign currencies and commodities into the USD. This USD bull market should continue for about five years as the DXY hits 140, or more, in 2018. During this 2013-2018 time period there could be a reorganization in the Eurozone, and/or a resetting of the world's currencies. The USD, and then USD denominated assets should be in great demand between 2013-2018.

[dasv] 12/1/2012 19:11

Would have been a lovely buy in April 2011. Shame I didn't have the presence of mind to load up on these while I was dumping small cap shares. Instead I spent the second half of 2011 heavily cashed up (> 90%)- but in the wrong currency: sterling.

[abc125] 21/12/2011 14:26

parked a bit more money here. i'm betting on a deflationary outcome.

[borderbill] 19/12/2011 23:57

I've held ibts for a while now,my other core holding with the pedestrian but income generating slxx, just as a dollar deposit proxy, bought in when cable was 162. Still amazed the dollar isn't much stronger, it will i expect come as the euro continues to descend into farce p.s interestingly when I typed euro on my iPad it autocorrected to dodo errr ?

[hosede] 13/12/2011 22:08

Chart looking really strong here

[chester] 27/6/2011 10:04

Anyone still hold these ?

[borderbill] 14/10/2010 12:19

dasv, I agree you should be nervous of uk and us govt bonds, this is why I hold IBTS not ibtm, it is really just a dollar cash proxy. I have been trading gilt futures on the short side for a few weeks now and have done well, but you have to be nimble, there is no real trend as yet - I think we are bumping along the bottom (for yields). Have also hedged my biggish holding in SLXX. On this subject I noted today the undernoted. Bill

"Pimco, manager of the worlds largest bond fund, is selling US Treasuries in the expectation that a fresh helping of economic stimulus from the Federal Reserve will have little impact."

[dasv] 13/10/2010 10:43

I'm beginning to ask myself how long can this go on (falling yields)?

In Japan it went on for many many years - more than a decade.

However this excerpt from an article kind of scares me about holding IBTM. My dad has a 20% weighting in IBTM (I only have 3% of capital in IBTM) - I don't want him to get burnt again like he did with LLOY and RBS during the crash.




"3) Government bonds really are a bubble

Sales of US mutual bond funds over the past 12 months have topped sales seen into equity funds in the period leading up to the collapse of the technology bubble.

This, combined with yields that are now so low that they hardly offer any solace for investors starved of yield, leads some to think it is simply unsustainable. How much inflation would it take in order for a 2.5% yield from US Treasuries to look not worth the effort? Some will conclude not very much.

Morgan Stanley's leading European equity strategist Matthew Garman said: 'At extremes, mutual fund flows have been reasonable contrarian indicators. The peak of the TMT bubble coincided with extreme inflows into equity funds in both Europe and the US.

'In the first quarter of 2000, US equity funds saw inflows of almost 4% of assets which, in hindsight, clearly marked the zenith of the equity bubble. In addition, ahead of the market troughs in 2002/03 and 2009 we also saw significant mutual fund outflows from US equities.'"