Iqe Share Discussion Threads

[horneblower] 03/10/2016 12:41

This time of year the pheasants like to emigrate from the local shoot.
A couple of days ago there was a covey of about 30 partridge on the lawn.

[twatcher] 03/10/2016 12:15

fingers xxd, any chance of running your...err..fingers over the IMG chart ?

[drago] 03/10/2016 11:42

thats an invasion, ever think of buying a cross bow and a roasting pot

[drago] 03/10/2016 11:00

toot toot
hi there hornblower
did you ever get your vegetables eaten by phesants?

[sheep_herder] 03/10/2016 08:49

Talk about blowing your horn.

[horneblower] 03/10/2016 08:19

Jeez...you guys ☺

[big7ime] 02/10/2016 21:47

The fundamentals back that up too with increasing profits, p/e, takeover tgt and so on.

[tomyumgoong] 01/10/2016 13:23

horneblower,Thanks very much! A great post.... Very interesting! I hope your correct with the predictions and I'll buy everyone a pint at £1+ sp, lol.

[horneblower] 01/10/2016 12:15

tomyumgoong,

Yes, put five chartists in a room and you will get five different interpretations and predictions. Like economists and, many will say, astrologers, we all use different methods and systems. However, in the end, I believe that chart patterns do represent typical herd behaviour within the particular subset of humans who are the buyers and sellers of stock.

The post above from fingers, who is a highly regarded chartist on these boards, demonstrates the point. His prediction comes from his understanding of the 'normal' behaviour of charts. Mine from another.

Humans act as herds, generally going in one direction then another for defined periods. This results in a trend which might be narrow or wide, steep or flat and well-defined or poorly defined. Herds on a journey often make pauses and stop-overs which result in characteristic shapes on the chart. When they reach old destinations they often stop to admire the view and sometimes decide to turn back. When they finally reach their expected destination they often hang about before deciding where to go next. All these herd events show characteristic shapes on charts.

Price movements are in fact NOT exactly like herds on a physical journey. Value is unlike distance in one important respect. It acts on a proportional scale as opposed to a linear scale, although for small changes you wouldn’t notice the difference. Over longer distances however, it is important to use a log chart (interestingly, this doesn’t seem to apply to currencies).

So, I mainly use channel analysis with some other bits thrown in. They say, the trend is your friend. They also say, the trend is your friend until it ends. The trick is to be able to predict where and or when the trend will end and, even better, the type and direction of the following trend.

In the case of IQE, I find it a fairly well-behaved chart with the normal mix of short trends within medium trends within longer trends. The pervading long trend is a fairly well-behaved, rising W shape in its thirteenth year which should eventually reach 100p. It last bounced off the bottom line at 16.5p in June. Since then it shot up to a predictable half-way pause centred on 26.75p. From that I would predict it aiming for 40p, however there is an old scenic peak at 36.5p which is very likely to catch the herd’s attention.

Fingers makes a good case for a longer pause at the current level. He may be right but my feeling is that the channel’s momentum will be lost if that happens and this will cause a fall-back, probably to 26.75p and I just doubt that will happen. I’m afraid this is hunch rather than anything explainable.

There’s a long way to go and there will be many reverses and slip ups but the chart strongly supports the idea of 100p although probably not until 2018. And after that the trend is not necessarily down!

Hope that is helpful.

[dan de lion] 01/10/2016 07:13

Could apply this chart application to IQE`s chart, looks interesting!

[rogerrail] 30/9/2016 15:03

rivaldo

absolutely, worth posting, even though it comes from the house analyst !

[rivaldo] 30/9/2016 14:46

Hi Roger, I just posted it, I didn't write it :o))

I completely agree with you. However, I can see the writer's point - as you say yourself, the new markets "are now coming thru strongly", photonics being the obvious example, so the diversification which has been evident to holders here for a while is now becoming obvious in financial terms to non-holders and the rest of the market.

[sweenoid] 30/9/2016 14:45

The tip is based on DanRidsdalds opinion,I concur with him :-)

However he happens to be IQE'S HOUSE ANALYST
;-)


S

[rogerrail] 30/9/2016 14:23

Rivaldo

"But it has started to diversify"

Not really an accurate reflection of whats happened with IQE. They have always had a diversity of product lines and IMO they have been criticized unfairly and Drew in particular, by many investors who wouldn't understand the difference between a CS chip and burnt a potato chip. I may be speaking prematurely , but it looks for all the world that they have executed their strategy superbly which took some foresight and commercial skill, establishing through acquisition a dominant market position in RF - a cash cow product line, whilst keeping a restraint on capital outlay, debt and shareholder dilution and at the same time targeting investment to other high growth markets which are now coming thru strongly. To add to that they had to withstand a period where Qualcomm spooked the market with a bogus breakthrough which convinced the anal-ists they would pull the rug from under IQE and which led to a period of aggressive shorting of the stock by Blackrock and many others who jumped on the bandwagon.
Yes with hindsight there have been some mistakes along the way such as Solar Junction, but that's business, you have to take risks and sometimes due to matters outside your control they don't pay off, but then you take action to mitigate the impact and this respect the action they took could eventually well turn to their advantage, well done Drew and all his team..

[big7ime] 30/9/2016 13:39

Busters I posted an abbreviated version earlier but thanks, I do think it is relevant as it is in the same ecosystem. IQE could well be next with its silly valuation

[rivaldo] 30/9/2016 13:33

IQE are tipped in this new article just up, along with ACSO and KWS, as "the best technology stocks on the market right now" - I've owned all three for some time!



"The other category into which he divides technology stocks are those that have perhaps struggled of late, but where he sees value.

He commented, ‘IQE is a company that struggled for a while, too much of its revenue came from one product line. But it has started to diversify, and has recovered strongly.’"

[yump] 30/9/2016 13:02

busters
I found it useful as it contains background commentary from the industry.

You only have to visit a few other threads at random to find irrelevant share tips and random generic stuff that barely relates to even the industry that the thread is about.

Its your space as well as ours.

[2flatpack] 30/9/2016 12:49

busters
entirely appropriate thanks.
Cheers