Ipsa Share Discussion Threads

[woodsman2004] 06/12/2010 09:04

Looks to me that the potential buyers of the turbines are playing a bit of a game here......delay, delay, delay until they can either pick them up from the receivers on the cheap or exact a low price in desperation from IPSA.

Either way, although I have held for years and was generally optimistic about this one; there are enough warning signs in the update to prepare me for a wipe out unfortunately.

[roobarb36] 06/12/2010 08:02

Peter Earl is not having the best of times in the last few months what with the recent goings on at RUR an SNRP.
This announcement only adds to the questiom, why have Sterling Trust been gradually accumulating here ?

[substp] 06/12/2010 07:37

Phewww ......

[monis] 02/11/2010 15:27

L2 anyone?

[monis] 02/11/2010 13:29

I wonder if Sterling are grabbing a few more?

[monis] 02/11/2010 13:19

tick up...

[monis] 25/10/2010 08:15

What are sterling doing here?

[drewz] 24/10/2010 11:07

Both. This share is a punt on the expectation that the banks/sharehlders will be supportive of the company until such time that the tangle of red tape is sorted out so they can implement these much needed power generation plants and be paid a realistic price for the power so produced.

They have assets (the Siemens gas turbines) as collateral for the time being, plus the outlook that their services are much needed, so I am optimistic that funds will be made available to keep IPSA solvent until such time that seriously cash generative projects are implemented in full.

It will likely be months before there is any real progress on the ground, but the market cap is so low and the shares so illiquid that any sniff of a clear route opening up through the ESKOM/NERSA red tape could propel the shares higher quite quickly.

[substp] 24/10/2010 10:34

Is more patience , money or both needed here ?

[substp] 24/10/2010 10:33

5.5 Multi-Site base load (MSBL) IPP programme
This programme commenced prior to the New Generation regulations and has been put on hold pending the finalization of IRP2. It was initiated by a committee consisting of the Ministers of Public Enterprises and Energy in 2008. It called for multiple sites and producers up to 4500 MW of base load capacity.




22/10/10

The Department of Energy (DoE) confirmed on Friday that the comment period for written submissions on the draft second integrated resource plan (IRP2010) would be extended by 30 days to December 10, 2010.

It also announced that the public hearings would begin in Durban on November 26, before moving to Cape Town on November 29, and Johannesburg on December 2 and 3.

The extension, the DoE said, meant that the IRP2010 would "most likely be promulgated by the end of the first quarter of 2011 instead of by the end of the year, as had initially been planned.

"We have been overwhelmed by the manner in which ordinary South Africans, including civil society, have internalised and taken interest in the IRP for electricity," director-general Nelisiwe Magubane said in a statement.

She added that as of Thursday, the Department had received 80 requests from groups seeking to make presentations at the four public hearings earmarked as part of the public consultation process.

These gatherings would be preceded by a public participation event in Upington, in the Northern Cape, which would be held on Tuesday October 26, ahead of a big solar park investor conference.

The IRP2010 was released earlier in October and has already been criticised by some as leaning heavily on coal and nuclear solutions, despite providing for an upscaling of wind, solar, landfill and hydropower over the medium term.

Edited by: Creamer Media Reporter

[drewz] 23/10/2010 20:14

Peter Earl, CEO of JSE-listed IPSA Group, had a rough year in 2009 courtesy of Eskom which, to put bluntly, messed his company around very thoroughly. That's because Earl took Eskom at its word a couple of years ago when the utility said it was desperate for additonal sources of power. He immediately developed an independent power producing (IPP) plant at Newcastle. That started operations in October 2007, but IPSA was forced to shut it down when Eskom finally declared, after considerable stalling, that it could not sign the necessary power purchase agreement (PPA) until Nersa reached a decision this year on its latest power tariff application. IPSA is now selling assets to survive and vowing to sidestep Eskom and deal directly with major industrial power consumers on future projects. Judging by the way the "no comments" come out through his gritted teeth, it's clear Earl is not a happy camper at this stage, and with considerable justification. We would love to hear his views on Eskom, which he clearly cannot voice publicly at this stage, and with considerable justification.

[drewz] 23/10/2010 19:22

They're making the right noises at ESKOM; shame their inter-departmental bureaucracy is soooo slow.


IPPs hold the key to SA's ever growing demand for energy electricity generation
September 1, 2010

By Kannan Lakmeeharan

(Kannan Lakmeeharan is the divisional executive for system operations and planning at Eskom.)

To meet the short- and medium-term requirements Eskom actively engaged with many independent power producers (IPPs), both regionally and locally, over recent years in an effort to introduce new private generation capacity. Our experience has been that the private sector is eager to build new generator infrastructure if the process to participate is clear, transparent and meets their business objectives.

This includes clarity on how the tenders will be awarded, commitments that their full costs and returns will be recovered over a certain period (up to 30 years) and commitments from the country to provide the necessary support and guarantees.

IPPs are an important and necessary component of the future electricity supply industry in South Africa. However, their success is predicated on the establishment of an appropriate and enabling legislative and regulatory framework. Key factors in this framework include the inclusion of IPP programmes or projects in the future revisions to the national integrated resource plan, a price determination by Nersa that allows cost transfer to customers and allocates this revenue to the IPP programme or project, flexibility to access foreign funding sources and government guarantees for large projects, as is done elsewhere. It is also important to establish a governance framework that makes it clear how decisions on allocating generation capacity to IPPs will be done.

The successful introduction of private sector investment into South Africa's electricity supply industry can be achieved through the right mix of clear governance frameworks, enabling regulations, appropriate levels of guarantees and support and cost-reflective tariff signals.

[drewz] 23/10/2010 19:08

Is it lights out again?

Aug 8, 2010 12:00 AM | By JANA MARAIS

The risk of rolling blackouts is rising as government drags its feet in appointing more independent electricity suppliers to help Eskom meet increasing power demands.



Only two independent power producers (IPPs) sell electricity to Eskom and a policy framework to ensure security of long-term supply is still not in place. There are also renewed concerns of increased risks of blackouts.

"In a perverse way, we were rescued by the financial crisis, as demand was lowered. But now we can expect to see blackouts again as the economy recovers," Free Market Foundation executive director Leon Louw said.

Kannan Lakmeeharan, division executive for system operation and planning at Eskom, said the company hoped there would not be a repeat of the 2008 blackouts, but warned that "the situation is getting tighter by the year".

The reserve margin (the margin between supply and demand) was at a relatively safe 16%, but a number of incidents would increase the risk of blackouts and therefore everything possible should be done to ensure security of supply, he said.

The department of energy's integrated resource plan, which would point the way forward for potential investors in the electricity sector, was only expected to be finalised by the end of September, a spokesman said.

There is no indication of when an independent systems operator, key to create a level playing field for independent producers, will be established. This process is mired in government bureaucracy, with interdepartmental consultation taking longer than expected.

Despite promises by government to urgently introduce independent power producers during the 2008 crisis, only two IPPs sell electricity to Eskom: Sasol and IPSA. Kelvin Power Station, Sappi and Bethlehem Hydro are expected to sell to Eskom shortly. The total IPP contribution will be around 265MW, compared to Eskom's capacity of 38500MW.

Energy regulator Nersa had set aside R11-billion to buy electricity from IPPs over the next three years, and the utility hoped to sign up more suppliers, Lakmeeharan said. Another 1000 to 1500 MW could potentially be generated through co-generation agreements with companies, he said.

Security of electricity supply is a problem for companies, forcing them to invest time and capital in generating capacity even if this is not in line with their core business. Cellphone operator MTN launched its own gas turbine station this week to ensure security of supply at its head office in Johannesburg. It will use Eskom electricity only as back-up in future, MTN SA managing director Karel Pienaar said.

While investment in electricity capacity is common among industrial users where waste material or heat is a by-product of the production process, many large electricity users, including Absa, are building more emergency back-up generators.

"Security of supply for the next three to four years is a concern. Until Medupi is commissioned and online, we are going to struggle," Lorraine Lotter, chair of the energy committee at Business Unity SA, said.

Louw said he was concerned about the slow policy process. "It seems as if government does not understand the cost to the economy. This is dealt with as if it is an engineering problem, not a policy problem. What we need is proper, sound policies. Over the long term, that means a policy framework as is the case in the rest of the world - one where independent producers are allowed to sell electricity."

Lakmeeharan said Eskom was concerned about delays in the policy framework. "We're ready to start tomorrow, but progress is hampered by a lack of certainty about long-term targets from government. We're anxious about this; we'd like to sort this out sooner rather than later," Lakmeeharan said.

[drewz] 23/10/2010 18:59

Strategic questions IPSA's contract cancellation
Fri 22 Oct 2010


LONDON (SHARECAST) - AIM-quoted South Africa-based coal miner Strategic Natural Resources (SNR) has questioned whether South African power generator IPSA has the right to terminate their coal supply agreement.

SNR says it has not received any notice of termination from the IPSA subsidiary that signed the contract. This did not stop the SNR share price falling 2p to 16.75p.

AIM-quoted IPSA says that it cannot proceed with its agreement with SNR's 74%-owned subsidiary Elitheni to acquire 1m tonnes of coal a year for 20 years because of delays in signing up customers for the power from the proposed power plant at the mine mouth site at Indwe. IPSA blames delays in Eskom's Multi-site Baseload Independent Power Production Programme for this.

This termination announcement follows the removal of IPSA boss Peter Earl from the SNR board earlier this week because of a conflict of interest. Earl asked for a vote of confidence and all the members present voted against him. Elizabeth Shaw, who is SNR's finance director and a director of IPSA, remains on the board for the time being.

IPSA says that it still has an option over the Indwe site and plans other power plants in the Eastern Cape. However, it needs to agree sales contracts for the power before going ahead with the developments.

[monis] 22/10/2010 08:17

If there is a takeover, looking at the long term chart, it could be at a big premium to todays price imo dyor.

[monis] 22/10/2010 08:01

Looking at the way they have increased their holding perhaps Sterling want to take IPSA over if so expect a nice price rise soon imo dyor.

[drewz] 21/10/2010 18:16

Informative interview with Peter Earl on CNBC:

[drewz] 21/10/2010 17:49

Apparently, Peter Earl & his missus offloaded all their IPSA shares because his other baby - IPC - needed cash urgently.

Should rise off the bottom now and back towards float price.

The board looks technically competent, plus the business environment could not be more favourable with ESKOM and the government desperate for new generating capacity.

Also, Richard Linnell joining the board is a big positive - he has excellent contacts in ESKOM , the SA coal industry and in government; he delivered me a 10-bagger at CZA.

Let's see if they can execute and generate cash here as well as power.

[monis] 21/10/2010 13:31

floated at 27p imo dyor.

[monis] 21/10/2010 13:28

I think the last placing here was 16p imo dyor so someone has seen a great opportunity to build a decent size stake at these levels imo dyor which is what we have seen via rns's imo dyor.

[monis] 21/10/2010 13:12

A depressed share price has created an opportunity imo.

[drewz] 21/10/2010 12:53

Both IPSA and SNRP seem to have been depressed by Peter Earl and his wife each offloading 4m+ shares at rock bottom prices recently.

I wonder why they felt obliged to do so.

If these were a forced sale for personal reasons, it may have created a wonderful buying opportunity to get in at the bottom.

[monis] 21/10/2010 12:31

Sterling have built up a big share in a small amount of time , could get very interesting imo dyor.