Ipsa Share Discussion Threads

[monis] 21/10/2010 12:29

moreforus - L2?

[monis] 21/10/2010 12:04

Possible takeover?

[monis] 21/10/2010 12:01

Holding(s) in Company
TIDMIPSA

RNS Number : 7684U

IPSA Group PLC

21 October 2010

21 October 2010

IPSA Group PLC

("IPSA" or the "Company")

Notifiable Interest

IPSA, the independent power plant developer, announces that it received notification on 20 October 2010 that Sterling Trust Limited acquired 5 185,105 ordinary shares of 2p each in the Company ("Ordinary Shares") on 18 October 2010. As a result Sterling Trust Limited holds an interest in 20,994,105 Ordinary Shares, representing 22.1% of the issued share capital of the Company.

For further information contact:

[pro_better] 21/10/2010 11:30

something is cooking in here and SNRP...

[sif12] 21/10/2010 10:14

thanks cyber.

seen the new on SNRP. theyve got rid of a director as they said he had a conflict of interest as CEO here. Same thing with the finance director. maybe nothing of any significance to IPSA..

[cyberbub] 20/10/2010 22:33

Well, 13MW output means:

13M / 1000 * 365 X 24 = 133M kWh per year (assuming year-round operation)

South Africa recently brought in major retail price rises for electricity, which will increase to 50c in 2011 and 65c in 2012. Of course those are 'Rand cents'.

So the retail value of the energy output by the Newcastle plant will be

133M X .65 X .09 (ZAR:GBP exchange rate) = £7.7M.

The big unknown is how much margin they are making on that? There has been a competitive tender process (the MTPPP) and IPSA claimed to have come in with the lowest supply price - obviously, because they won! So on the one hand they will have been squeezed, but on the other hand there are probably still not a lot of independent suppliers competing against them. The announcement on 31st August did not specify any prices, I suppose for commercial confidentiality reasons. I have spent an hour looking through the Eskom website but could not find any indication of prices.

I guess that the retail price will not be what IPSA will receive, they might get say 20% less than that from Eskom? So say £6M. Their own margin, say a further 20%? So maybe £1.2M or so in operating profit.

Of course this is a total guess! But it would lead to a valuation of say £10M, or about 10p per share.

This figure ignores taxes, admin costs etc.

So just on the basis of the Newcastle plant, IPSA is probably fully valued at the current price.

Still, its additional value is in its other projects like Elitheni and Coega, and its intangible position in the independent power generation market in SA, ie. contacts, experience etc. Certainly the sector as a whole should be sitting pretty in the medium/long term, given the power problems in SA.

I would be interested to hear peoples' views on the sales of the turbines, much of the cost seems to have been raised through equity finance, with some coming from loans also. If they are sold in the next couple of months, does that imply a substantial wadge of cash coming back into IPSA's coffers?

NAI DYOR

[sif12] 12/10/2010 20:07

Hi guys

hoping for clarification on a couple of points

the MTPP was signed as stated in the RNS end August. Start date not agreed until gas and steam supply agreed. 13MW output.

How much will this to equate to in terms of earnings?

This seem like major news, an agreement until 2015 for power output, yet very litle movement in share price and even less interest on the BB.

Only issue I see is turbines need to be sold by end Jan??

Is there any major negatives, stock overhang? past performance issues, delays? illiquid stock?

thanks

sif

[qalbabbass] 17/9/2010 16:53

Its time will come.

[roobarb36] 17/9/2010 10:36

The announcement today that Sterling Trust Limited have acquired a further 1,805,000 shares takes their holding from zero at the start of June to 12,930,000 in just under 4 months.
The first block of 6.125 million was bought for 12p a share
The second block of 5.010 million was also bought at 12p
Yesterdays purchase gives no price and may be as a consequence of approx 90 days having elapsed since the £300,000 short term loan arrangement with Sterling to restart the Newcastle plant was announced on 17th June.

With 300,000 warrants also exercisable at 15p Sterling do seem to be reasonably confident they will get a return on their investment.

Also remember, unless I have missed something, Credit Suisse, UBS and Morgan Stanley still retain significant holdings here.

Despite this IPSA seems to be totally invisible to retail investors other than the odd one or two. Hopefully if we obtain a LTPPA the share price may start to recover more rapidly.

[qalbabbass] 13/9/2010 14:41

because he knows the price wont fall nay further due to his sale. He still has 4.37 million shares in the company.

[don_king] 10/9/2010 20:48

and on the 3rd former chairman of the Company, sold 1,000,000 ordinary shares of 2p each in the Company

[qalbabbass] 02/9/2010 23:09

A very large buy at 10p. This is looking promising.

[kasman] 01/9/2010 22:35

Eskom go-between to be appointed
Sep 01 2010 17:47
Troye Lund
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RELATED ARTICLES

Cape Town - Deputy President Kgalema Motlanthe said an independent system and market operator would be introduced to resolve and mediate between Eskom's "conflicted role" as generator and buyer of electricity. This, according to government, is a "critical element" preventing private operators entering into and competing in this market.

Answering questions in the National Assembly, Motlanthe told MPs this decision was taken by the Inter-Ministerial Committee on Energy which is made up of the departments of energy, public enterprises, national treasury, economic development, science and technology, trade and industry as well as the presidency.

"The cost recovery mechanism, in terms of which private sector generators are given the assurance that their costs will be recovered from the electricity tariff over the term of the power purchase agreement, has been concluded in consultation with Nersa (the National Energy Regulator of SA)," said Motlanthe.

Aside from the push to increase private sector participation, Motlanthe outlined other progress that has been made since the Electricity Advisory Council meeting in December 2009.

He announced, for example, that a comprehensive strategy has been completed to "address the rehabilitation of municipal distribution infrastructure, as a specific focus in the current government programme of action".

Furthermore, he said that the Integrated Resource Plan, which aims to pinpoint what technologies South Africa will require over the next 20 years to diversify its energy mix, would be promulgated by the last quarter of 2010.

"The process to revise the regulations promulgated under the Electricity Regulation Act of 2006 has been completed after consultation with lenders and potential investors.

"The draft regulations, licensing framework and standard power purchase agreement provisions, together with the evaluation criteria for independent power producers, will be issued by end-November 2010 to coincide with the conclusion of the Integrated Resource Plan," said Motlanthe.

One of the other initiatives introduced since the last Advisory Council meeting, he said, involves providing solar water heaters to all residential users of hot water, in place of electric geysers.

"The public consultation process was concluded in July 2010 for the solar water heaters financial incentive scheme," said Motlanthe, who added that Nersa would decide what the financial incentive for this programme would be later this month.

- Fin24.com

[roobarb36] 01/9/2010 13:18

Thank goodness for that. Was beginning to think a PPA would be never come about. Either that or Eskom might squeeze IPSA into a less favourable contract in the knowledge their funds were running lower than they would like.

IPSA does tend to move quite quickly on little volume so lets hope it works in our favour now.

[qalbabbass] 01/9/2010 11:34

and up she goes!!

[qalbabbass] 01/9/2010 10:11

Some good news today. This will go up-just a waiting game now.

[roobarb36] 26/7/2010 10:03

That sudden surge in buying at the end of April seems a long time ago now. Any price rises have been well and truly wiped out on virtually no volume.
Wonder what Credit Suisse think now of their approx £1 million investment back in February. Morgan Stanley and UBS must be asleep as well.

It would be nice to see a Purchase Power Agreement coming IPSA's way at long last given all the work and investment they have put in. Then again the world cup is just a memory now so panic over.

[qalbabbass] 02/7/2010 22:38

This is going to fly soon.

[roobarb36] 14/5/2010 09:32

This drop in price seems a little disproportionate given the single 50,000 sell unless there are delayed trades waiting in the wings.
Compare this reaction to the buys of 23, 26, 27 and 28 April where a million shares were bought in 2 transactions alone with many other 50,000 plus buys.
Still I dare say we will continue to fall today now on no volume.
God bless the market makers.

[woodsman2004] 29/4/2010 09:28

Very interesting. Presumably unless this chap is simply building up a collection of non-exec positions to aid his retirement, Earl must have presented a decent business plan in order to persuade him to join.

As ever with AIM stocks, this news leaked like a rusty bucket!

[imabastard] 29/4/2010 07:01

"I believe that Richard will oversee a resurgence of IPSA as a leader among independent power producers ....

.... has unrivalled experience of the energy market in South Africa ...."

----------

Interesting .... given he's a South African national and his connections to BHP Billiton (BLT) and CZA ....

.... what plans are being/have already been hatched ?

[imabastard] 28/4/2010 16:21

I'm sure all will be revealed at some point. :o)

[roobarb36] 28/4/2010 16:18

Not to mention the £63,750 purchase on Monday and the £58,750 one last Friday afternoon.
Even if you are quite wealthy you don't stump up that sort of cash on a whim.

[imabastard] 28/4/2010 14:55

Stake building ? Couple of £14k slugs bought. Must be something brewing in the back offices.

[imabastard] 26/4/2010 21:57

Interesting .... twelve times average daily volume today.