Ip Share Discussion Threads

[fireball xl5] 18/2/2013 14:56

Should make interesting reading.

[peaeff] 18/2/2013 11:06

Finals were declared 8th March last year so not long to wait now for, hopefully, a full update on the progress of some of the more likely candidates for moving the SP, the most obvious being Oxford Nanopore. News of a launch there would do no harm at all.

regards

[full metal alchemist] 29/11/2012 18:34

few pictures of nanopore's instruments that they showed off at the conference recently:



also surprised no one has noticed/mentioned that illumina are currently trying to sue nanopore around the terms of the commercialisation agreement they signed.

This may have a massive effect on future profits depending on the outcome. It relates to the 2009 commercialisation agreement between the two companies. What is unclear is what this agreement actually refers to just looking at the press releases. It appears as though illumina think that this agreement applies to any product coming out of the company, whereas nanopore believe it applies to exopore sequencing only (which as we know has no plans for commercialisation at this time). What percentage of sales illumina would be entitled to is anyones guess, but it isn't likely to be insignificant.

I noticed today that numis have reiterated a $2bn valuation of nanopore, but they appear to have glossed over all of the potential issues including the arbitration.

[peaeff] 09/11/2012 09:44

Thanks for that kooba I was wondering when we may get some news on this front. It had seemed to go very quiet since the initial excitement earlier in the year when I think it did shift the share price quite significantly. I'm afraid these days investors are not so keen to wait forever and would rather place their money with matters more current. That, plus a very stagnant market, has no doubt led to the share price retraction here.

encouraging.

regards

[woodpeckers] 29/10/2012 12:42

Large buy (150k) at over the offer there. I wonder if that has anything to do with the Getech news out today as that's up 17%? With a 25% interest it would be a cheaper way of getting in there perhaps. Any thoughts anyone???

[peaeff] 25/10/2012 11:37

Fairly low key IMS but nothing too untoward. I suppose it's fair to say that at present the market is having a large say in all shares.

[peaeff] 22/10/2012 11:53

It seems this thread has become confused with another which will hopefully go away now. For those who aren't sure THIS THREAD HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH DIRECT LINE.

Thanks.

[spob] 11/10/2012 07:43

started a thread here

but it will take a while for ADVFN to get up to speed obv

[jonwig] 11/10/2012 07:05

175p confirmed and ticker is DLG:

[jonwig] 11/10/2012 06:32

FT:

Retail shareholders are to invest a greater sum in Direct Line's initial public offering than any other UK flotation in at least the past five years after about 25,000 individual investors applied to take part.

Private investors are set to account for about 15 per cent of shares offered in Royal Bank of Scotland's insurance arm, which is scheduled to begin trading on the London Stock Exchange this morning.



Suggests price will be 175p.

[0micron] 10/10/2012 18:28

Direct Line off the hook as 10% damages ruling overturned

The Court of Appeal has overturned a decision that could have hit Direct Line Group's (DLG's) 2012 profits by £45m.

Following legal pressure from the Association of British Insurers (ABI), the court has revised its opinion in the Simmons V Castle ruling. The ruling relates to the 10% increase in general damages that will apply when the Legal Aid, Sentencing and Punishment of Offenders Act (LASPO) comes into force in April 2013.

DLG revealed in the prospectus for its pending initial public offering (IPO) that it could face a hit of between £30m and £45m to its 2012 pre-tax profits if the ABI failed to get the Court of Appeal's decision changed.

Some observers predicted that if the judgement had not been changed, it would have knocked 3p off DLG's share price. The DLG IPO is expected to be priced tomorrow morning.



Let's see how much a boost this gives the stock tomorrow morning.

[tenapen] 10/10/2012 16:02

I decided against buying.

Good Luck to all who took the plunge.

[jonwig] 10/10/2012 14:53

FT comment on this:

Insurers welcome court compensation ruling

By Alistair Gray, Insurance Correspondent

Motor insurers have welcomed a court judgment over a planned increase in compensation to accident victims, saying they would avoid hundreds of millions of pounds in added costs.

As a result of the Court of Appeal judgment, only personal injury claimants who seek compensation after April 1 next year will enjoy an increase in damages – not those who make claims before then but whose cases are settled afterwards.
The increase in damages was recommended by Lord Justice Jackson last year as part of sweeping changes to the UK personal injury compensation system and legal costs.

As part of the reforms, so-called success fees in no-win-no-fee arrangements would be paid for by claimants – not by the insurer of the driver who caused the accident.

In order to provide redress for claimants, Lord Justice Jackson recommended a 10 per cent increase in awards.

However, as a result of a separate court ruling earlier this year, the insurance industry was concerned about the timing of the various reforms.

It feared some claimants would enjoy a 10 per cent increase in compensation – at the same time as not having to pay the success fee. It said the court of appeal ruling on Wednesday reversed this judgment.

James Dalton, assistant director of motor and liability at the Association Of British Insurers, said: "Today's decision by the Court of Appeal means that insurers will not be forced to pass on about £300m in increased costs to the premium paying public, which represents around £13 per motor insurance policy."

The ruling will offer particular relief to Royal Bank of Scotland, given that the bank is set to price the stock market launch of its insurance arm Direct Line at 7am on Thursday morning.

Direct Line warned in the prospectus for its initial public offering that as much as £45m, or an estimated 7 per cent of pre-tax profits, were at risk if the legal battle went the other way.

The order book for Direct Line's initial public offering closes at 5pm on Wednesday. RBS told investors on Tuesday that it planned to price the IPO at between 170p and 177.5p a share.

The part-nationalised lender plans to sell a stake of at least 30 per cent of the equity in the first tranche, netting the bank between £765m and £799m.

[jonwig] 10/10/2012 14:50

Simmons v Castle decision revised on appeal:



Although expected, this relieves insurers from payments which would be, in effect, retrospective.

It relieves DL of some uncertainties which might have held institutions back, so definitely positive, though expected.

NB. The Proactive article doesn't mention the potential change of business description next year, which would enable DL to bring legal advice (and execution?) in-house.

[dr biotech] 10/10/2012 12:41

Possibly the most optimistic article I have read, from Proactive investors.
I do think the competition report is overplayed. As I have mentioned previously, I'd be comfortable holding these for a while.



One of the UK's best known insurers Direct Line, which debuts on the main market this week, has good potential to boost profits and improve margins.
That's the view of City analyst Nick Johnson at Numis, which has started covering the stock recommending investors "buy".
Conditional dealings begin tomorrow (October 11) and there has already been a surge of small investors interested in getting their hands on the shares.
It comes despite a mood of scepticism from major institutions and analysts about the float and the firm's potential for growth in challenging times, when it already has such a large market share.
The stock is priced at between 170 pence and 177 pence - a range which Johnson describes as "sensible".
The analyst describes the insurer's business, well known for its red telephone branding, as "solid".
"In our view, focus on restricted growth prospects implied by the group's large UK market share misses the point that Direct Line can potentially deliver significant profit upside from actions to improve margins," he said.
He highlights that the company's stated return on tangible equity (RoTe) of 15 per cent implies profit growth of 12 per cent from current levels - realistically achievable for 2014, he reckons.
"However, full management incentive payouts require average RoTE of more than 17% in 2013/14, which would require profit before tax growth of 27%."
Johnson added that the firm's potential measures to improve the RoTe were not limited to cost streamlining, but might also include price optimisation, improved claims performance, and a more leveraged capital structure.
"The current cost-reduction target of £100 million equates to 9% of general expenses, and would reduce the expense ratio by 3ppts to 31%.
"We think this understates the potential for further cost efficiencies given that some peers operate with expense ratios in the mid-20s and Admiral is at 15%.
Furthermore, the analyst added: "We suspect the move to being an independent entity with more demanding investors will intensify the group's focus on cost efficiency."
He also highlighted Direct Line's balanced product mix, including home, UK motor and commercial insurance, which reduces its exposure to pricing cycles and claims trends.
"In our view, this reduces potential margin volatility, thus improving earnings quality and dividend security. In contrast, Admiral is almost entirely exposed to UK motor (94 per cent)," he said.
Johnson has an initial target price for the shares of 215 pence.

[jonwig] 10/10/2012 08:45

A judgement is due today on the case Simmons v. Castle (under appeal) regarding payment of legal injury compensation.

An adverse verdict is described as a significant risk for profitability, but is unlikely. It's all in the Prospectus in legalese and is briefly referred to in the FT but not named.



I think the key judgement will be whether the damages uplift should apply to cases currently under consideration. An adverse judgement would probably set the price at the 170p floor.

[dr biotech] 10/10/2012 08:31

From City AM

Direct Line last night narrowed its range to between 170p and 177.5p, in the lower half of its initial range, a source said last night, ahead of a final pricing due this evening.

Spread betting firm ETX Capital Markets told City A.M. that there was an influx on buyers on their grey market yesterday morning. This pushed their spread – an indication of the expected price per share at flotation – up to 180-190p

------

Using the midprices of 174 and 185 that gives 11p - ~6%. I'd be happy with that, should the chance arrive.

[mark knopfler] 09/10/2012 20:28

I decided not to go ahead.

The markets are looking shaky, and with many people looking to stag it, I think it could fall early on, though you have to say the downside is probably limited.

[peaeff] 09/10/2012 09:53

It is very difficult to understand the sometimes exagerated rises and falls which have occurred since the heady days of 150p a share, where incidentally it appeared to be quite stable.

Nothing untoward has been reported but on the other hand nothing of any importance either. It's very much a wait and see situation and hopefully good news wont be too far away.

[dr biotech] 09/10/2012 08:07

Indy says avoid.



Must admit I think the competition investigation may eventually be beneficial for the business - they need to make an underwriting profit and it would be nice to have a less litigious society. May take some time to do that. My current thinking is only that the offer price is likely to be about 175 and the grey market price is 184. Not a lot but 5% for filling in some forms is OK.

[togglebrush] 09/10/2012 06:19

Barclays, this morning, has no link for online trading. It only shows an 0800 telephone number which is no good for me in middle of the Western Med.

[dr biotech] 08/10/2012 11:49

Well I am going to apply for 7k - about 1/3 of my original plan. Its an amount I feel comfortable with in the medium term, though if there is any worthwhile initial premium I'll probably sell straight aways

[blm3] 07/10/2012 14:04

I have a Barclays online acc, so should be easy to buy and sell. Dont want to miss out on any initial premium (I would just be stagging it if I get involved) but neither do I want to lose money on this which is a depature from my normal investment strategy. Decisions, decisions...