Ip Share Discussion Threads

[brucie5] 25/7/2023 08:45

Fair enough, Pinkfish. Cwr retracing further this morning.
Edit: sold a tiny bit of my IPO to buy into CWR on this large retrace. A lot of understandably disgruntled holders on the CWR bb this morning, but chart suggests to me that the market will be increasingly interested in the technology and we're at the start of a new bullish phase for these stocks.
Could be too early as you suggest; or just plain wrong.
Happy to see IPO fighting to regain the 2000sma today.

[p1nkfish] 24/7/2023 23:29

I'm not in the market to add much new exposure at the moment Brucie.

CWR could turn, have kept a loose eye on it for a long while since IPO involvement and one day it has every chance of bouncing back.

Currently scouting for new potentials but not pressing any buy buttons.

I don't like repeating the zeitgeist but do think there is a storm to hit. At least being in bombed out IPO means we might not suffer as much as some of the high flyers. Same true for others lacking momentum and in the doldrums as a lot of selling has already happened. Much of what I see in the US looks momentum driven and I don't see it lasting in the face of what is straight ahead.

[brucie5] 24/7/2023 14:18

CWR might be an interesting one in due course, Pinkfish, as one of those that 'got away' from the IPO stable just before it bolted. It's recently started to break up but looks slightly oversold, so probably worth waiting for it to come back slightly. The share price is now 25% of its 2021 peak price, which is to me can be a useful indicator, especially given that its tech has recently been confirmed as top notch. I would say it's card has been marked, notwithstanding it may be years away from making a profit.

[p1nkfish] 22/7/2023 13:33

Would much prefer it to take its time and form a solid round bowl bottom personally.

I can see what you mean by the WMA's but tend to stick to what has worked for me and do like to see solid confirmation even if it means missing a few pennies, just to help de-risk.

200 EMA/WMA differential is closing and down to 3.5p on the weekly. The close just above the 50WK WMA doesn't say much to me. The volume does, highest since 11th June week. Need to see more of that as weekly volume vs 3 month average doesn't tend to lie.

A movement is due but if it takes a few more months of consolidation so much the better.

I don't always follow my own rules - which I should.

I do think this could treble or more from the 50p bottom and more likely to do so if it forms properly and thereafter its higher still. 150p - when? Say by/in Summer 2025.

180p - 220p more quickly thereafter - ALL GUESS WORK. Dyor etc.

[brucie5] 22/7/2023 12:53

Interesting Pinkfish: I agree that there will likely be an extended upswing, when it occurs; but my hunch is that it could be nearer to hand. That may be confirmation bias, as I have just bought it - as well as ONT. But when the market starts rediscovering the stable of tech and its relevance to the climate crisis, it may also begin to close the startling discount to NAV, so there may well be a double pinging effect of rising NAV with lessening discount - analogous to growth shares seeing rising EPS with rising PE.

I think there are two ways of seeing the buying opportunity: either at the very bottom of the cycle (50p if you were both lucky and extremely patient)or hereabouts at point of chart inflexion.

Although the sma seems more reliable as an indicator, the wma can also have its uses if a share recovery is likely to reflect pent up energies. Look at the 200 wma (along with 50+100 wma) and tell me what you see.
;)

[p1nkfish] 22/7/2023 12:49

Could it go below 50p?
Never say never but would be very surprised if it did.

If i was buying purely on TA I wouldn't go near it until the 10WK EMA crosses above the 20WK EMA and that may happen, if no upsets, in the next 1-3 weeks. Ideally when through 61p as a weekly close. Big resistance is then 67p. After that is a new price regime imho.

GLA.

[brucie5] 22/7/2023 10:41

Broken down through the 200 sma; but the wma still intact. A lot may depend on wider markets, but given significance of ONT as by far the largest holding - 19% of its NAV at EOY 22- I would imagine that uplift will be reflected here and in turn lead to some market rediscovery of the underlying treasure trove of tech. IPO is surely one of of a kind on the LSE. Reminds me of BTG back in the day.

[brucie5] 18/7/2023 17:56

Potentially interesting move chartwise. 5th move over the 200wma since its great decline in 2021. Each one having proved disappointing up to now so more than a watch. but there does seem to be a large basing pattern lasting best part of 9 months now.

[p1nkfish] 21/6/2023 22:35

An interesting read that partly applies to IPO. No matter what discount to NAV its in the doldrums with no catalyst, no momentum and therefore no interest shown etc. A long stable base being formed until something creates a breakout.

[brucie5] 20/6/2023 16:16

p1nkfish20 Jun '23 - 14:07 - 2778 of 2780

I think it is heading to 150p but don't hold your breath.
--------------------------------------------------------
I wouldn't bet against it. It's certainly what the chart suggests. But as you say, how, and on what timescale?
I'd imagine this would have to rely on awakening of interest in ONT; then maybe some kind of break through with FSL.
But on a confirmed break up through 60p, the chart could turn again, though unlikely in current climate.

[p1nkfish] 20/6/2023 14:11

That said there are a few gems in there that could surprise in next 12-24 months but IPO has a habit of not extracting full value and scoring own goals just as about to win the match.

[p1nkfish] 20/6/2023 14:08

Sad to say, the holdings need scale. Very frustrating as I love UK deep tech.

[p1nkfish] 20/6/2023 14:07

Holdings are long duration and illiquid. A killer in this market until some big positive news arrives.

Its a pleasant ride for the insiders and only good so far for the dabbler PIs able to wait for a return whilst others make money in shorter duration and liquid areas with momentum. Or sit on cash generating 4% or more.

I think it is heading to 150p but don't hold your breath.

[brucie5] 20/6/2023 13:05

It's effectively a private equity vehicle, is it not? With added headwinds of being invested in early stage, poorly understood technologies, with by far the largest (listed) holding in ONT domiciled in the UK.

[palisz] 20/6/2023 11:41

The AGM was a non-event, questions were mundane, same investor as last year asked irrelevant questions, analysts were non existent, and no institutions showed up.

The stock is cheap, fairly underpinned, but needs a catalyst or much more promotion on all the underlying investments to make the shares start to move up. Will happen, just no idea when. board needs to be shaken up, by a Bill Ackman type. Still holding a tiny position, waiting for that day! DYOR

[palisz] 16/6/2023 10:29

The board has no one who is vaguely market savvy.. all very smart geeks, but being run around by bankers who get away with just taking the cream and not doing the leg work!

[palisz] 16/6/2023 10:26

Another question I asked recently.. BoA is their main banker, benefits from most deals, ipo's, fund raising, valuations etc.. gets regular fees. BoA owns Merrill Lynch a research power house... but doesn't produce research on IPO. Why not? Because the company hasn't demanded it.. too weak. Really poor.

[palisz] 16/6/2023 10:16

Exactly what I said to the CEO...there is a lack of confidence in the NAV and the management needs to up the company profile, display more companies...not just churn out Nanopore at every meeting, and if they are confident in values then show it and BUY BACK SHARES. There are over 80 individual investments...barely half a dozen ever get shown. The CEO was the CFO and a great guy...but a typical accountant, very conservative. May prove right long term, but will damage performance. As I have said more than once to the company, the management is there to increase NAV and EPS.
BUYING back shares does BOTH. Unfortunately deaf ears prevail.

[bjfanc] 16/6/2023 09:56

Market doesn't believe the NAV of the unquoted portfolio.

[palisz] 16/6/2023 09:27

The IPO market is not closed, just tight. Yesterday was an IPO CAVA it opened at a massive premium of 100% Good companies can always attract investors...especially when investors are over flowing with cash balances. Bankers just say this to get lower valuations and themselves more business / profit.
As for a discount when calculating value I work with facts. The management stated that they did not inflate values in 2021/2022 so didn't feel the need to discount already 'conservative values' Any discount is an arbitrary number with no real substance.
Call it 10%, probably aggressive, or 30%, probably too conservative, the discount is ridiculous on any measure. This happens in markets and is an opportunity for investors and management. Why would the management subscribe to new funding rounds at 100% NAV if they won't also buy back shares in the same companies at 15c on the dollar?
This shows a lack of understanding of markets and is the reason I'm not adding even though I think the price crazy. Need something to change sentiment first. DYOR

[bjfanc] 15/6/2023 18:52

If the IPO market is closed, what discount, are you applying to the unquoted portfolio.For further rounds of financing, what incentive do they have to play hardball.

[palisz] 15/6/2023 13:47

The Meerkat institutions passed every item at the AGM 90+ %... They really don't bother to look at what is going on.