Over 9 million traded in just over the hour. |
Looks like it could be. |
back over 40p in short order |
that was the low point |
NAV is less if a problem to imho. I also think management are professionals.
My beef is misalignment of incentives and a lack of what I would call fighting spirit to aggressively market IPO. |
NAV reality is 100% reputational risk. Although I have extreme annoyance with the management I do think they won't jeopardise reputation through over egging the holding values. |
A 4 million trade just went through, hopefully on the way to clearing the seller. |
Web site says Berenburg and Nunis are also company brokers. Why are there no analyst reports and price targets from these research tree? |
I'd agree it is a cheap way to get exposure to a NAV figure that has a decent chance of evaporating while the company spends the cash as fast as they can realise it. An optimist might argue that the NAV will be realised and more as the IP is commercialised.
As an aside why is the Helium green when the company makes electrolysers. Surely its just green if you run the electrolysers on green electricity? |
It is a bit rubbish they only have one broker issuing notes and poor if the company broker isn't promoting the comoany through research and a price target. That would be time to get a new broker |
Companies can't been seen to be favouring one shareholder over other, leads them open to messy legal complications. Seller may have approached a broker to place the holding, but not like the price offered. (too big a discount ) As previously mentioned BoA although a company broker do not research the company, so would not be keen to place them, ( making for a lousy bid). No other big banks produce research either. Again, this has been pointed out to the CEO! Why do BoA who get most of the fees not produce research. Answer is, cos the CEO hasn't pushed them to do it. Weak! |
Net cash at year end 2023 was £92m. |
You also need to understand how they calculate the NAV.
The majority of holdings are valued based on last funding round. There have been very few the last 18 months. Supposed independent banks ( BoA ) has approved these valuations. But BoA don't even research the company !
I also think this is massively undervalued, but part of the reason, which I have expressed multiple times to the CEO, is that this system of valuation is too obscure.
I also think there are a fair number of zombies which the company needs to address.
However if you just look at the top 25, there is serious value way above that implied by the share price. As for buy backs, you can do the maths. Not complicated (tongue in cheek. |
Looks like £135m of debt at the last year end but doesnt the NAV include this debt? So that you can still pick out the cash as an asset in the way commentators are doing? |
I would suggest net cash after debt, which would give a lower more realistic number. |
Bamboo
why has the forced seller not already approached the company directly to make a deal?
Not possible whilst IPO in closed period.
Wunderbear
This buyback has NOT “enhanced shareholder value” nor stabilised the share price. FACT.
If you define shareholder value as NAV, then it has enhanced value.
IMO share buy backs are fantastic if at that right time!!!
Many investors don't like them because companies buy too soon into the downward trend. If IPO were to utilise the remaining funds today at 36p we'd be very happy with the significant NAV per share improvement.
Buying 114p of NAV (of which 20p is solid) for 36p is a no brainer? |
 I’ve thrown caution to the wind and added another couple tranches of stock at 36p. I only topped up a few days ago at 37.5p, but since then something’s been playing on my mind - would I look back with huge regret if I didn’t take further advantage of this shakedown. I had to take the punt as my overwhelming belief is the market has significantly mispriced this stock.
I don’t often get excited about a share, but IPO is a rare exception. I’ve been crunching the numbers over and over, saying to myself, what am I missing here? Am I massively over-estimating gross cash c.£200m [20p per share], noting this forms a large part of my calculation. We know ONT valuation is c.10/11p per share, which means the market is almost disregarding the rest of the portfolio.
Excluding cash and ONT stake, the market values the many remaining investments at just 5p/£50m whereas IPO reckon 84p/£840m. It’s this huge disconnect which has created a seemingly unbelievable opportunity to make a significant return on capital at this price point.
I’m mindful my NAV estimation is derived from y/e figure 114.8p. We might well discover it has fallen further, but surely not to the extent where a share price of 36p is validated. Next month’s Interims will shed further light on this matter.
At this moment in time the cash element is more important to me than NAV as this acts as a huge safety buffer at current price 36p. Besides, you can’t argue with stone cold cash, whereas NAV is highly debatable as evident here.
We’ve seen high volumes traded these past few days, easily outstripping buyback numbers. There are suggestions a large seller is driving down the price [would explain sudden 15% drop few days ago]. If that’s the case they must be desperate bailing out at rock bottom prices c.36-42p. In the short term, my concern is, if someone is dumping stock, how much are they dumping, and how many days/weeks/months before they’re finished. A prolonged sell-off could depress the share price further. There’s been no RNS notification to suggest a major shareholder is dumping stock/reducing their stake, but maybe one will appear soon.
I was encouraged by this morning’s RNS re portfolio realisations ytd of over £43m [majority attributable to sale of Garrison Technology], completed at or above carrying values. This should give shareholders some comfort re accuracy of IPO’s investment valuations.
IPO also expects to receive c.£8.4m from Intelligent Ultrasound Group’s sale of clinical AI business to GE Healthcare for £40.5m, of which IPO holds 20.8% stake. You’d think all this positive news would impact the sp! Unfortunately not, the market appears completely uninterested, no movement at 36p.
I note Directors plan to increase the buyback programme to a total of £30m, ytd they’ve bought back 29m shares, c.3% of shares in issue, for a total of £13m. Fantastic! Let's review the highlights of this buyback to date.
During this period £200m has been wiped off IPO’s market cap. FACT.
The share price has fallen 36%. FACT.
Discount to NAV [114.8p] has widened from c.51% to c.69%. FACT.
This buyback has NOT “enhanced shareholder value” nor stabilised the share price. FACT.
Majority of shareholders have suffered significant capital erosion. FACT.
Anyone who thinks otherwise is clearly in denial. FACT. [said with tongue firmly in cheek]
I’m a great believer in value will out. It’s just a case of waiting patiently for the tide to turn, as it always does. Another share I’ve been aggressively buying this past month is BP, and similarly to IPO, its share price has fallen heavily despite ongoing buyback programme. But at least BP pays me a 5.5% dividend while I wait for my 550p price target to materialise.
Given my average price is now below 40p, I’ll be looking to exit IPO c.75-85p. In the meantime, assuming it is a large seller depressing the sp, I’ll make a foolish prediction and say once seller has cleared out we’ll see a sharp upturn c.42-45p, thereafter 50-55p within 3-6 months. |
Sorry who are they paid to? |
Running costs. |
Sorry loglorry for being dim but when you say "self managed" how does cash re fees leave IPO and what is the entity that benefits? Or does a party get shares in lieu of these huge fee entitlements? |
Thanks for sharing above post by Oak Bloke, Ghhghh.
Interesting conclusions and look forward to results |
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