Iog Share Discussion Threads

[bountyhunter] 13/3/2022 19:20

50p this week assuming first gas is finally announced? That's my guess fwiw :~)
Caveat - if gas prices remain around current levels.

[bountyhunter] 13/3/2022 09:21

Added a Twitter link to the header. #IOG_plc has nothing recent so the link is just a search on #iog which throws up some anomalies as well as recent IOG posts.

[aimmafia] 12/3/2022 19:14

This is going to a quid as long as no mess ups.

[bountyhunter] 12/3/2022 17:24

I don't think there will be while the Tories are in power. If Labour get in on just over two years time it may depend on gas prices at that time and the availability of supplies elsewhere.

[king suarez] 12/3/2022 13:45

Yeah, I think we still have to factor in a possible future Windfall tax, but the rate is already 40% and previous high was 50%?

Perhaps if it is introduced and can be somewhat offset by hedging losses and/or development capex, then it might only take a bit of shine off the investment case?

[bountyhunter] 12/3/2022 13:31

Low Opex and CO2, no hedging and a planned for gas price of only 45p/therm with imminent first gas being just the start for IOG.
It's funny how UK gas development companies have gone from being demonised with possible windfall taxes to potential stars of British Industry almost overnight!

[king suarez] 12/3/2022 12:06

As per latest presentation:

Assumption @35mmcf/d (50% of 70mmcf/d net IOG) that is 360k therms a day. 360k therms x 41.5p = £149k. £149k per day x 90 = £13.5m base case revenue.

Add THAT to the additional £30.7m per 10mmcfd = £30.7m x 3.5 = £120m revenue for Q2 2022 total. The additional revenue is huge, around £107.5m v base case of £13.5m.

On the 12m forward curve the ADDITIONAL revenue above base case is around £1m per day currently. Crazy potential.

[bountyhunter] 12/3/2022 10:48

Very timely and a great title, I'll add that link into the header.

"IOG: breathing new life into the UK Southern North Sea gas basin"

Added in green at the top. (Incidentally I had to right click on either link and open in incognito browser to download the pdf on my phone).

[bountyhunter] 12/3/2022 09:21

Header updated, we might get quite a bit of interest next week. When was the last time a new gas supply from the North Sea came online?

Also added a link to LSE chat at the top.

[bountyhunter] 12/3/2022 08:49

As previously reported, the project targets a gross peak production rate of 140 mmscf/d – 24,000 Boe/d – from gross 2P gas reserves of 302 Bcfe and management estimated 2C gas contingent resources of 132 Bcfe, via an efficient hub strategy based on co-owned infrastructure."

That will be about 4% of UK gas production so not insignificant, although split 50:50 with CalEnergy of course.

[alxo82] 12/3/2022 08:19

Edgein, the plateau production from the data provided for the mid case was 13kboed (70mmscfd aprox) for Elgood and Blythe, that's why I expect first weeks of production to be above it without any kind of stimulation. I understand they will apply some well management techniques to reduce any risk of borehole/well damage, but still the initial production should be easily 15/20% above the plateau level.

[bountyhunter] 11/3/2022 17:48

Exactly! Monday looking very likely for that first gas RNS, with first gas to be sold to BP based on the day ahead NBP price. There should be loads of accompanying publicity throughout the media given it's new gas from the North Sea.

NBP gas today 319.00GBP
CHANGE 22.11(+7.45%)

[marvelman] 11/3/2022 17:39

"potentially moving to mid-April"...its a laugh a minute with these guys Bounty, but we are nearly there so I can put up with the odd left field statement now.

[bountyhunter] 11/3/2022 17:13

BP replacing GazProm for the first gas GSA as I suggested might be the case. No first gas just yet but then I don't need a new car yet so can wait (passed!). ☺️

Overall a very positive statement with backgassing confirmed to be proceeding as planned so first gas must be imminent.

However I had to laugh at this bit:

"Resumption of Southwark drilling therefore remains targeted for later this month, potentially moving to mid-April due to the interplay of logistical factors and tidal conditions."

[montyhedge] 11/3/2022 15:29

Why not be on a PE of 14, 432 p shareprice then. Going by those numbers. When it all comes together.

[t0pgrader] 11/3/2022 15:12

FWIW FinnCap have p/e of 1.4 for 22 and 2.5 for 23

[edgar222] 11/3/2022 15:09

Depending on the exact numbers I think the p/e might be 0.5

[overeager] 11/3/2022 15:00

I'm liking the not hedged comment. Surely they'll be on a p/e of 1 assuming they get production up and running?

[marvelman] 11/3/2022 14:45

"Amazing.It almost sounds bullish and not the usual balls up to be expected from these sorts!"

Sums up this investment perfectly Sphere...its been a long bumpy road for many of us but still why is it that we would not be surprised by another surprise...only joking..I think

[montyhedge] 11/3/2022 14:33

Rns on a Friday afternoon caught a lot of traders out, probably not everyone seen the rns, normally 7am in the mornings.

[phillyaboots] 11/3/2022 14:29

IOG's Saturn Banks Project targets a gross peak production rate of 140 mmscf/d (c. 24,000 Boe/d) Any views on how long the ramp up to peak production will take ?

[montyhedge] 11/3/2022 14:19

I like the last sentence not hedged before production starts so gets the prevailing rate. I don't fill so bad about my gas bill going up now, lol.