Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[superg1] 08/11/2013 08:24

Escape

Look at GDG, the bears are on the attack there with research that GDG basically in big trouble, plenty of lengthy research facts posted, and the price took off and is near it's highs.

I didn't see real volumes that justified the rise. It's almost as if someone with deep pockets worked in the background and squeezed it up.

I don't get involved in those shares other than watching for experience. It doesn't take long to work out the traits and habits of various persons and posters involved.

GBO,the same goes there, I'm watching that too for the same reasons.

If anyone wants experience in investing, you don't have to be invested, or interested in investing in a share, to gain good experience.

It also leaves pure onlookers not being influenced by their position when reading 'research'.

I do my own research in shares I'm in, I've done a hell of a lot on IOF, and I pretty damn pleased with recent research on this one.

We'll see how things go.

[csimpson5] 08/11/2013 08:15

With IO#4 30 days behind IO#3 would it be fair to assume an RNS could come sometime next week?

[escapetohome] 08/11/2013 08:01

Down 30p on good news - 1.90p to 1.60p - What would happen in a bear market or market turbulance?

That is what enis are targeting, a steep market correction. Nothing to do with the delivery of IOF.

IOF has met every expectation and more.

[superg1] 08/11/2013 07:40

Engelo

Do you mean the non-iodine related product. I believe that is a US contract. It's in an rns.

The break included the last 12/18 months, it kicks back in Q4 this year and in full next year going by the details and what was said.

I did ask re that last time around and it's something where there are only two suppliers, and IOF may with their price advantage try and grab the other customer.

[meadow2] 08/11/2013 07:12

engelo - The Indian sale was for derivatives, not raw iodine, and the hope is that a foothold in the Indian market would lead to further sales and increasing profits. The prospects seem good for future sales using cheaper, home produced iodine for derivatives sold at higher margins.

[engelo] 07/11/2013 23:54

naphar: 2014? edit there was a company record sale to India mentioned in H1. Also seem to remember from earlier still a large long term contract that would be low volume in 2013 but then pick up again in 2014. Anyone remember this?

[naphar] 07/11/2013 23:33

Thanks meadow, I did see that but for me marketing is not the same as selling. They could be marketing it for 2014 delivery, get contracts ready for when they feel they can sell quantity x on a regular basis. Time will tell, but after the events of 2014 so far, I am trying to maintain a cautious approach I.e somewhat limit my expectations.

[bobsworth] 07/11/2013 23:11

worraps

"Tusks erupt at 16 months but do not show externally until 30 months."

hxxp://www.outtoafrica.nl/animals/engelephant.html

Based on that fact Iofina should start to erupt April 2014 (2013 finals) and complete April 2015 with their 2014 full year results!

That assumes they are not poached in the meantime!

[everybodywangchungtonight] 07/11/2013 22:29

I find it hilarious the way all the names that used to post here regularly, suddenly appear from their other private members BB to give an hours worth of scripted story telling.


Usually in a manner to cause distraction from a touchy topic or an undermined and fragile sp! It's like a puppet show!

Next up - helium?

Hello Pluto!

EWCT

[superg1] 07/11/2013 21:32

Sand

I understand it $60m's worth so a great idea but they are probably beyond that and too expensive.

It could be wear of course, we'll see in the fullness of time.

[worraps] 07/11/2013 21:27

So, at what age do tusks start to grow?!!!!! And do they go 'ping' when they begin?

[ansana] 07/11/2013 20:55

and there you have it Monty, our elephant just makes a lot of noise as far as our competitors are concerned so with no tusks they are leaving us alone.

[sandbag] 07/11/2013 20:49

Sg1,


I still maintain that if the problem is corrosion the answer may be cathodic protection but of course I'm not going to suggest this to them.

[monty panesar] 07/11/2013 20:46

Elephants aren't worth shooting until they have tusks!

[ansana] 07/11/2013 20:39

Interesting so if they want to diversify and reduce their dependence on Iodine maybe they are going to run away from the baby elephant rather than try to shoot it!

[monty panesar] 07/11/2013 20:06

Superg.What is also a positive is that Sirocco and more importantly SQM have now publicly stated they are looking to diversify out of Iodine into other areas. Maybe they realise there is a baby elephant in the room?

[superg1] 07/11/2013 19:54

Monty

It shows the measures being taken by producers as the price has dropped. As Chile more or less control the price, they won't over-supply as they end up shooting themselves in the foot. There is only so low they can take it.

Yes some Chile guys have dropped production

Here's a letter from the SQM boss to the authorities explaining why they have reduced staff-:

Mr.
Hernán López B.
Superintendent,
Superintendence of Securities and Insurance
Avda . Libertador Bernardo O'Higgins Nº1449
Santiago



Mr. Superintendent.

We received your Official Letter N°24,268 dated October 30, 2013. In relation to
the contents of the Notification, we state the following:

1.
Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile S.A. (SQM or the Company) is
constantly analyzing its productive processes, costs, markets, and other
variables involved in the development of its activities. From time to time,
depending on the circumstances of the industry and of the markets in
which it participates, the Company also implements special adaptation
plans with help of external consultants. These consultants provide
information about "best practices" that are used by major companies
worldwide to control cost increases, decrease total costs of production, or
to restructure the organization in response to new prevailing needs, to
increase productivity rates, or modify the operational processes. The
analysis performed by the SQM during 2012 suggested extending the
latter to cover many situations of company interest; this led to the hiring of
"McKinsey". Thus, SQM has been involved in the execution of various
projects related to the above, which were started up more than a year ago
and shall soon be concluded.

2.
Within this context, the Company has been realizing various adjustments
in its production strategy of potassium in order to adapt to market
conditions and achieve, with the same total production, increasing
volumes of potassium sulfate while reducing volumes of potassium
chloride with the final purpose of optimizing the global returns for
potassium. This will allow ductile company operations to adapt to the
prevailing market conditions. This has taken place in the past and will
most likely occur in the future, in one way or another, with the
consequential benefits for SQM.

3.
Likewise, SQM has temporarily decreased its iodine production in the
"Nueva Victoria Productive Complex" to adjust its levels of inventory.
This, as we have stated before, has occurred in the past and will probably
occur in the future, in one way or another, with the consequential benefits
that this adaptation brings.




4.
Moreover, we should remember that the "project areas" in the different
companies are essentially variable and that the number of staff depends
on the level of corporate activity and on the status of development of the
pertinent projects. Specifically, at SQM, the termination of a series of
production capacity expansion projects have led to the natural adjustment
of the respective staff by nearly 150 people and the consequent fusion of
certain Management Departments and Vice-Presidencies.

5.
Finally, the implementation of projects aimed to increase the levels of
efficiency and to decrease the operational costs of the Company's support
areas in the Country have required revising some service and supply
contracts with third party companies in order to optimize the pertinent
activities. This has led to a smaller staff of approximately 340 people.


We are at your service to try to clarify any additional questions related to the above.

Best regards,

SOCIEDAD QUIMICA y MINERA de CHILE S.A.

[superg1] 07/11/2013 19:47

Phoenixs

Sorry I forget we have some new arrivals. Sirocco have had some problems with their Agitating leaching plant (ALP).

From earlier Sir releases-:

As indicated in the second quarter, the operation of the crushing and screening circuit has proved to be impractical due to the highly variable proportion of volcanic pebbles and chips in the feed which reduce throughput and cause
significant wear in leach tanks. This resulted in four weeks of downtime in the ALP during the third quarter. As more fully discussed in the Outlook section below, test work is being completed to finalize the sizing of a mill, which will enable the ALP to operate at the designed throughput of 400 tonnes per hour.


Sirocco viewed the issue as basically rough rocks, so have mobile screeners to help smooth off the feed pebbles etc.

They are to spend $15m in Q1 next year for a mill as a long term answer and this will increase throughput.

The ALP is the heart of their operation and by far the most expensive.

They don't use seawater. I took the time to contact a few over that Including the Sirocco president who has since left.

More than one, with experience in the industry, suggest the wear is down to corrosion.

Something to do with positive ions present in the caliche/rock in the leach process used which are corrosive.

Sirocco are new to the iodine industry. It's suggested others have tried and failed with their method before, due to corrosion.

Time will tell if it's wear or corrosion, if the latter then it's a big write off on the plant, and a complete rethink on the way they are going to produce iodine, if they bother to continue on.

[monty panesar] 07/11/2013 19:37

Regarding Sirocco results it is interesting that the v cold weather in the Atacama Desert over the Winter is being blamed for poor production. You would think that all Chilean producers have had the same issues.
They say exports from Chile are 50pc less now than in May as the bigger producers have also cut output.

[meadow2] 07/11/2013 19:34

naphar - From the Interim Results issued on 25th September, 2013 under Iofina Chemical

"......The Group will continue to market its iodine through iodine chemical derivatives at Iofina Chemical. In addition the Group has recently begun marketing its crystallized iodine to new customers as production increases......"

Unless I've misinterpreted the last sentence beginning "In addition......" this appears to mean that they are marketing surplus iodine.

[bobbyshilling] 07/11/2013 19:29

noli, there is the possibility of course that IOF could reach that figure by year end, as many here including myself believe that the 700-1000mt exit rate is conservative, but certainly 1500mt is achievable soon into next year. When we start producing more than Sirocco, then you are right, that will send out a statement.

[noli] 07/11/2013 19:21

Bobbyshilling, if iof do exceed 1500mt for 2013 exit rate, then that really sends a statement out to the rest of the producers.

[bobbyshilling] 07/11/2013 19:14

Also, Sirocco said that they have decreased their delivery times because of market competition - I wonder who they might be referring to? They expect to produce 1500tons for 2013. IOF may surpass that figure in a matter of months I should think. $41 costs per kg is mega compared to IOF.